Replacing a legend is always difficult, but Jordan Love is going to have every opportunity to thrive in Green Bay after Aaron Rodgers forced his way to the New York Jets in the offseason. Rodgers’ play certainly dipped a bit last season, but Matt LaFleur’s offense should give Love an opportunity to make an instant impact and possibly even be more of a threat than the former MVP.
LaFleur’s offense features play-action passes, RPO’s, motion and misdirections. Last season, Rodgers threw 123 play-action passes (11th-most) for 869 yards (15th-most) and was under center for 57 RPO plays (10th-most) and 397 yards (10th-most). I expect all of those numbers to tick up under Love based on his skill set, athleticism and the personnel around him.
The Packers’ offense will heavily rely on running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. That’s the best running back tandem in the NFL and establishing the run will take some of the pressure off of Love. That will also make Love much more effective as a play-action passer, where he should be able to find wideouts Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed downfield. All three receivers have the ability to burn down the field and I’m also very high on rookie tight end Luke Musgrave, an athletic freak who should break out and be a solid target on short and medium passing routes.
BetQL is projecting Love to throw for 3,342 yards with 12 touchdowns in his first year as Green Bay’s starter, but that might just be enough to make the impact his team needs him to make if Jones and Dillon make a major impact on the ground.
As for the Packers as a whole, BetQL’s Simulation Model is projecting them to win just 7.6 regular season games with a 28% chance to make the playoffs.