James Conner Is Center Of Arizona’s New-Look Offensive Philosophy

If you recall, the Arizona Cardinals got off to a 7-0 start back in 2021 and finally looked like they turned the corner. But, not so fast, my friend (Lee Corso voice)! 

Since then, they’ve gone 8-19, finished 4-13 last season and were forced to press the reset button. After replacing their entire coaching staff and eating a massive cap hit to cut DeAndre Hopkins for no compensation this offseason, this team is going to look a lot different heading into 2023, not only from a roster perspective, but from a philosophical one. 

Kyler Murray is still recovering from an ACL, which means new head coach Jonathan Gannon is going to rely on Colt McCoy (and/or Clayton Tune) to start games under center until Murray is healthy. That may not be a huge issue, though, since new Offensive Coordinator Drew Petzing served on a Cleveland Browns offensive staff that ran the 4th, 6th and 8th-most run plays during his tenure. 

Gannon was brought in for his defensive know-how, having led the Philadelphia Eagles to new heights on that end of the football. A ground-and-pound offensive philosophy lends itself well to strong defensive squads since it presumably allows the clock to run, giving the defense some much-needed rest to regain stamina. That could mean really positive things for Conner’s individual production.

Embracing The Underdog Mentality

Getting rid of Hopkins for no compensation while eating more than $20 million in dead money this year signaled that the team was turning the page and essentially punting this season, but Conner was very outspoken about that mentality and how he and his teammates don’t subscribe to the idea.

“It means everything (to be a part of building the foundation),” Conner said on Thursday, June 1, per ArizonaSports.com. “I love this team, I love the pieces we added. We got a whole new staff. I haven’t found one thing to complain about. I’m just really excited to be a part of this. I love this team, love this city and just excited to do something special this year. Nobody believes in us but that’s OK. … That’s the exciting part, to prove people wrong.”

“I just love the possibilities of what this could be, the pieces we have just playing as one,” he added. “That’s one thing I love about it is our message is playing as one. That’s unselfish football, being detail-oriented and just making the right plays routinely when they come up.” 

Conner carried the ball 183 times for 782 yards with seven touchdowns on the ground through 13 games last season and added 46 catches on 58 targets for an additional 300 yards and another touchdown as a receiver. That was just one season removed from an 18-touchdown debut with Arizona (15 rushing, three receiving) back in 2021 when they made the playoffs. With 44 career rushing touchdowns and eight more as a receiver, the inspiring cancer survivor is very accustomed to finding pay dirt. 

Evaluating Conner’s Upside In 2023

If he stays healthy, and that’s a big if given his history, Conner has a lot of upside heading into 2023 as the clear, unquestioned RB1 on this roster. Behind him on the depth chart are Keaontay Ingram, Corey Clement and Ty’Son Williams, so it wouldn’t be a shock if Conner sees 60-to-70% of Arizona’s touches out of the backfield, both as a runner and a receiver. 

Per Pro Football Focus, the Cardinals’ offensive line might be one of their few strengths this season. “Arizona’s 71.6 pass-blocking grade in 2022 was good for 13th in the league. D.J. Humphries, Will Hernandez, Kelvin Beachum and Josh Jones all put up 75.0-plus pass-blocking grades. The Cardinals suddenly have a glut of starting-caliber tackles at their disposal. Jones and rookie Paris Johnson Jr. have some versatility, so one of them will likely slide inside. The Cardinals’ offensive line isn’t as bad as some narratives make it out to be.”

The Cardinals traded down then back up to take Johnson sixth overall and his versatility to play essentially anywhere but center should be a major asset for them immediately. That’s another solid sign for Conner’s potential output of touchdowns and yardage. 

Arizona’s regular-season win total of 4.5 games is either the lowest or tied for the lowest mark in the NFL and while BetQL’s simulation model only has them winning five games, it’s worth noting. Nonetheless, Conner is a back that can do damage in any game script which makes him really appealing. If the Cardinals are playing from ahead or in a one-possession contest, their run-heavy scheme will allow Conner to get a ton of carries. When playing from behind, Conner should be one of Arizona’s most trusted targets out of the backfield. 

As a member of the Cardinals, Conner has scored 13 touchdowns in 11 games with McCoy as the starter, 12 of which have come on the ground. Five of those rushing touchdowns came in the four games that McCoy started last season. Now under Petzing and Gannon implementing their philosophies on the offensive end, grabbing over 6.5 rushing touchdowns for Conner at -115 odds over at Caesars seems like a fantastic idea. I also like over 775.5 rushing yards at -115 odds. Want to go really nuts? Get him at 30/1 to have the most rushing yards in the NFL, but don’t put a full unit on that.

The time of the true RB1, bell cow back is nearly over in the NFL. There are very few left and Conner is one of them. It’s our responsibility to take advantage of that situation and place your faith in one of the game’s hardest runners and top touchdown producers.