Chaos rained down on the first 14 games of the Week 3 slate. The Cardinals, Colts and Texans all won as underdogs of at least seven points, the Dolphins put up 70 against the Broncos and Patrick Mahomes obliterated the Bears.
Now, we’re on to the Week 4 slate. Here’s a look at the current spreads and totals, as well as my two early best bets.
Houston Texans Spread (+3, -105) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I love backing the Steelers when they’re listed as an underdog. When they’re a favorite, though, it’s easy to take the other side.
Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 64.9% ATS when they’re listed as an underdog. When they’re a favorite, that percentage drops to 46.9% ATS.
When Tomlin’s a road favorite, he’s only 30-38-1 ATS for a -12.2% return on investment.
Houston also checks the box on a few historically profitable betting systems.
First, underdogs in games with a total less than or equal to 42 points are 57.5% against the spread dating back to the 2018-19 season. Further, home underdogs the first six weeks of the regular season are 54% against the spread since the 2005-06 season.
Add in the Texans defense looking great against the pass through three weeks, and I’m confident they’ll keep the Steelers offense in check.
Back the Texans before it moves off a key number, and definitely consider them as a teaser option this week.
This will be the week bettors find out if the Dolphins are a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Miami enters this week 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread. However, all three teams they’ve faced aren’t even close to the level of the Bills.
For his career, Josh Allen is 9-4 straight up when he’s listed at -3 or lower. As a home favorite in general, the Wyoming product is 24-6 straight up.
From a matchup standpoint, the weakest unit within this game is the Miami defense. Entering Week 3, they sat 21st in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Although they kept the Broncos in check, it shouldn’t matter. Last season, the Broncos ranked 28th in offensive DVOA. I suspect bettors will see an offensive output from Buffalo similar to the Chargers, who scored 34 points on Miami in Week 1.
The biggest difference between those teams? Buffalo finished 19 spots better than Los Angeles in defensive DVOA last season.
Lastly, the fact this currently sits at -115 tells me the Bills will move to -3 soon, so bet it now before it gets to the key number.
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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.