Data Shows One Man Dominating 2024 Defensive ROYD Market
Dallas Turner opened with the second-shortest odds at +750, behind only Chargers rookie Laiatu Latu at +700
Kate Constable - Jul 31, 2024, 1:47pm EDT
BetMGM Insights
BetMGM has released its betting insights for the upcoming NFL season, showing where the money and tickets are going in the various award markets. The data for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award tells a clear story: both the sharps and the public like Dallas Turner to take home that hardware.
Turner opened with the second-shortest odds at +750, behind only Chargers rookie Laiatu Latu at +700. The No. 17 overall pick is now the favorite at +400, with Latu at +500.
According to BetMGM, Turner has the highest ticket percentage (18.3%) and handle percentage (26.0%), making him the book's biggest liability for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
He is a compelling candidate for the award, so it isn't surprising to see him garnering this much attention from bettors.
Turner's Case for DROY
Turner had a dominant career as an edge rusher at Alabama under Nick Saban. He finished the 2023 season with 50 total tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, and 10 sacks, earning him the SEC Defensive Player of the Year award. He also achieved a career-high PFF pass-rush grade (89.3), racking up 55 total pressures and 11 quarterback hits.
Turner was the third defensive player off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft and will fill an immediate void for the Minnesota Vikings with their sack leader, Danielle Hunter, leaving for the Texans. Hunter tallied 16.5 sacks last season, leaving plenty of those up for grabs among Vikings defenders this year.
Minnesota also saw Marcus Davenport and D.J. Wonnum depart in free agency, replacing them with free agents Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel. Turner will likely be behind both players in the rotation, but there should still be plenty of opportunities and playing time for Turner early on.
History on Turner's Side
History is also on Turner's side, with pass rushers taking home the DROY award in four of the last five seasons, including his former Alabama teammate Will Anderson, who won it in last season with the Texans.
Nine of the last 10 winners were taken in the top 20 of the draft. Turner checks that box, having been selected 17th. The only other players fitting this criterion are Laiatu Latu (15th), Byron Murphy II (16th), and Jared Verse (19th). However, this trend could break this year due to many quarterbacks being taken early, pushing defensive players down the draft board.
Other DROY Candidates
I think Turner is a great candidate for this award and certainly has a path to taking home the honor. However, if you want someone a little further down the board, I'd take a look at Dolphins' rookie Chop Robinson at +1500.
A linebacker out of Penn State, Robinson was taken 21st overall. Although he's outside the top-20 trend, he likely would have been a top 20 pick if not for the 14 consecutive offensive players selected first.
Miami's top edge rushers, Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, suffered season-ending injuries last year and are on the PUP list to start training camp. This means Robinson will likely see the field earlier than expected. With Van Ginkel leaving the Dolphins for the Vikings in free agency, Miami's depth at the position is limited, opening opportunities for Robinson.
His odds to win the award opened at +2000 and currently sit at +1500, making him an intriguing option as money has come in on the former Nittany Lion.