The New York Giants (2-0) opened as 4-point home favorites against the Dallas Cowboys (1-1) and the total opened at 40.5 points. BetQL is your source for NFL odds, best bets, live public and sharp data, written analysis and much more. Keep reading for a breakdown of both teams, a prediction and some exclusive sportsbook offers.
The shift from Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush shockingly resulted in a Cowboys win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2, as Dallas’ defense stepped up numerous times to help solidify the win. So far, Dallas owns a 24% third down conversion rate (T-worst in NFL), which is important to note since New York’s defense has allowed a 21.74% third down conversion rate (best in NFL). It’s safe to say that third downs will be a major factor in deciding the outcome of this game.
Keep in mind that while the Cowboys have gone 8-1 ATS on the road over the last two years, they’ve gone 2-9 SU in games where their moneyline was +130 to -150 and 1-10 ATS when their line was +3 to -3 points. CeeDee Lamb has caught just nine of 22 targets for 104 yards so far and has failed to find the end zone while Ezekiel Elliott (4.2 yards per carry, 52.5 rushing yards per game) and Tony Pollard (3.4 yards per carry, 25.5 rushing yards per game) have also both struggled.
The Giants are 2-0 under head coach Brian Daboll, but have done so without many chunk plays offensively. They’ve only had two plays of 20 or more yards (dead-last in the NFL) and Daniel Jones (70.9% completion rate, 3 TD, 1 INT) has been very conservative as a passer, racking up only 364 passing yards through two games. Only one New York receiver (Richie James) has double-digit catches so far and Saquon Barkley has been the clear go-to playmaker, racking up 236 rushing yards on 39 carries with a touchdown and nine catches for 46 more yards in the passing game.
Overall, this team has a ton of question marks, but earned two close wins over the Tennessee Titans (21-10) on the road in Week 1 and then the Carolina Panthers (19-16) in Week 2.
I think these two teams are pretty evenly-matched and have a number of question marks. I also can see both teams trusting their running backs to make things happen, as Barkley should see a ton of catches for the Giants while Elliott and Pollard should split reps for the Cowboys. I’d lean towards the under here, but overall this is a very difficult game to bet. Want to tail or fade this pick? Whatever the case, place your bets now and take advantage of the current lines!