The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) opened as 3-point road favorites against the Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1) and the total opened at 49.5 points. BetQL is your source for NFL odds, best bets, live public and sharp data, written analysis and much more. Keep reading for a breakdown of both teams, a prediction and some exclusive sportsbook offers.
When the Colts brought in Matt Ryan to take over at quarterback, this probably isn’t the start they envisioned. Averaging just 10.0 points per game (worst in the NFL), Indy played to a 20-20 tie against the Houston Texans in Week 1 and then got shut out 24-0 by the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2. Ryan has thrown one touchdown with four interceptions through two games against defenses that were projected to be bad and while star running back Jonathan Taylor (40 rushes, 215 yards, TD) has been individually successful, Frank Reich’s team looks absolutely lost and he’s most likely on the hot seat right now. In this matchup, the Colts will face an elite Chiefs team, so they’ll need to play a solid game on both ends of the football. We have not seen their ability to do that so far this year, but there are a few trends working in their favor.
Coming off a division game, Indianapolis has gone 16-8 SU (16-7-1 ATS) under Reich and have also gone 9-3 SU after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game (they had 54).
After hammering the Cardinals 44-21 in Week 1, Kansas City got past a revitalized Chargers squad with a close 27-24 win last week. They’ve averaged 6.7 yards per play (T-2nd best) and their offense should be in a great spot to produce week after week regardless of the opponent, even without Tyreek Hill. Patrick Mahomes has completed 73% of his passes for 595 yards, 7 touchdowns and no interceptions and has taken only one sack through two weeks and will be very difficult to contain.
Under Andy Reid, KC has gone 25-7 SU in September games and 25-3 SU after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their last game. Since the Chiefs allowed exactly 75 yards last week, that trend is active.
The Colts need a win, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be able to make that happen. I’m not going to bet Kansas City’s moneyline, but I’ll definitely get some action on them against the spread. I’m not going to touch the total in this contest, but judging by Indy’s shutout loss to the Jags last week, there’s no chance I’d trust them. Want to tail or fade this pick? Whatever the case, place your bets now and take advantage of the current lines!