We've got ourselves a heck of a matchup on Sunday Night Football this week, with two teams focused on Super Bowl aspirations. Kansas City is coming off an upset loss to the Colts 20-17 though, while the Bucs lost 14-12 to the Packers easily hitting the under, obviously.
Both sit at 2-1 heading into Week 4.
The Chiefs' loss to the Colts was the biggest surprise of Week 3, with Kansas City holding Indy to just 259 total yards of offense.
Patrick Mahomes had 269 yards, a touchdown, and a pick, with Travis Kelce catching the lone touchdown from Mahomes.
Andy Reid is also 22 - 9 against the first-half spread after two or more consecutive losses against the spread while coaching Kansas City. Complicated I know, but also noteworthy, so let's go with it here.
The Bucs are 9-1 straight up in non-conference games over the last three years, and even though they came away with just 285 yards of total offense, they're still 2-1 and in a much better position getting Mike Evans back after dealing with a depleted receiving core last week.
Keep in mind, through three weeks, Tampa has scored just 51 points, while the Chiefs scored 44 in Week 1 alone.
It's hard to have confidence in the Bucs right now, even with Evans back. Their offense has been stagnant, with the risk of Tom Brady breaking more tablets pretty high week after week, coupled with the offensive line issues mixed with receiver problems as well. Give me Chiefs -2.5.