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Kate Constable - Sep 14, 2023, 1:58pm EDT
Premium Betting Angles: Browns vs. Steelers Week 2
After getting absolutely smoked by the 49ers in Week 1, the Steelers went from being a 1-point favorite over Cleveland in Week 2 to a 2.5-point underdog. Part of that line movement is also because of a few key injuries that we'll get into later in the article, but also because the Browns beat the Bengals pretty handily in Week 1. The total for this game opened at 43 and money has been pouring in on the under, moving this line all the way down to as low as 38.5, though there are still some 39s on the board.
There are two different ways that I would suggest playing this game and one of them has a track record from our model that is hitting 58.3% of the time on Steeler games and 64.7% of the time on Browns games. Scroll down to find out what it is.
The game will be broadcast Monday night on ABC at 8:15 p.m. ET at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. Subscribe now to gain access to the rest of this article as well as all of BetQL model's insights and picks!
Premium Betting Angles: Browns vs. Steelers Week 2
After getting absolutely smoked by the 49ers in Week 1, the Steelers went from being a 1-point favorite over Cleveland in Week 2 to a 2.5-point underdog. Part of that line movement is also because of a few key injuries that we'll get into later in the article, but also because the Browns beat the Bengals pretty handily in Week 1. The total for this game opened at 43 and money has been pouring in on the under, moving this line all the way down to as low as 38.5, though there are still some 39s on the board.
There are two different ways that I would suggest playing this game and one of them has a track record from our model that is hitting 58.3% of the time on Steeler games and 64.7% of the time on Browns games. Scroll down to find out what it is.
The game will be broadcast Monday night on ABC at 8:15 p.m. ET at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. Subscribe now to gain access to the rest of this article as well as all of BetQL model's insights and picks!
Get Ready for an Offensive Snoozefest
In the box score, the Browns looked really good in Week 1. They beat the Bengals by 21 and finished with 350 total yards compared to just 142 total yards for Cincy. But if you watched that game closely, I would argue that while Cleveland did a lot of things really well, Cincinnati lost that game because they were really, really bad.
On Pittsburgh's side, it was just flat-out awful. I don't think that performance is indicative of what the Steelers' entire season is going to look like going forward, but they will face a lot of the same challenges on Monday night, specifically with the run game.
The 49ers' pass rush completely smothered the Steelers on the ground, limiting them to just 41 rushing yards. That's exactly where the Browns found success too, holding Cincinnati to just 75 rushing yards. Pittsburgh is also likely to be without one of its top wide receivers, Diontae Johnson, who is doubtful to play on Monday with a hamstring injury. That's going to limit the Steelers' passing game, which was already horrendous to start the season thanks to Kenny Pickett. So, between going up against a dominant run defense and having a depleted receiving corps, I'm not sure how the Steelers are going to move the ball against the Browns.
Defensively, Pittsburgh is also going to be without its best DT, Cameron Hayward, who will be out for a number of weeks after suffering a groin injury that will require surgery. That's a huge blow because the Steelers struggled to contain Christian McCaffery and now they have Nick Chubb coming to town.
Back a Defensive Showdown Early
1H under 19.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Everything I just laid out probably sounds like I'm taking the Browns to cover. Not so fast. Mike Tomlin's teams are tough, and getting embarrassed on your home field to start the season isn't a good look. So, I expect the Steelers to step up in this spot and for their defense to set the tone from the start.
If that's the case, we're likely not going to see a whole lot of scoring in the first half, which follows a BetQL model trend that has been on fire: The model has gone 33-18-16 (64.7%) on Cleveland's first-half totals and 32-23-15 (58.2%) on the same bet for Pittsburgh.
And would you look at that -- the model has the under as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ value. Back a defensive slugfest of MNF and take the under 19.5 in the first half. The other way I would recommend betting on this game is by adding the Steelers to a teaser. With them sitting at +2.5, teasing them by six points gets you past the key numbers of three and seven.
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