Analyzing Josh Allen's Matchup Against Kansas City's Defense

Josh Allen vs. Chiefs Secondary

Josh Allen is the perfect example of why you should never give up on a quarterback too early. He was a mess his rookie year, and showed minimal improvement his second. Then he took the leap, and now he is a bonafide superstar in this league, and one of the best QBs in the NFL. This weekend he gets to face the Kansas City Chiefs in what is essentially the AFC Championship game, as I believe one of these two teams will be in the Super Bowl. Allen killed KC's defense in Week 5 of this season, and his Bills coasted to a 38-20 win over Patrick Mahomes. The difference now is that the Chiefs defense has gotten significantly better since early in the season, and this won't be the same team Allen faced then.

It's no secret that Allen has had his troubles when playing Kansas City. The Chiefs bested him twice last season, including in the playoffs. Now we shouldn't compare games from last year to now, but it is noticeable how he plays against a certain team. What's weird about the bills now is that they actually have transformed into a rushing team since the halfway point of this season. They rank No. 1 in rushing since then, with Allen taking a backseat.

As awesome as he has been this season, there is still that sense with him that you could get a bad performance at any minute. Allen is known for having a hot and cold streak to him, and while it hasn't really appeared too much this season, it is hard to trust him completely in a playoff game against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

Giving Props: Josh Allen O/U 2.5 Passing TD's

BetQL is doing a free "Giving Props" promotion every week to help you win cash during the NFL Playoffs. Each week, we will have a pool of player props to choose from, and you have to select whether the player will go over or under the number that is listed. After reading this, click the button above - enter for free and you'll not only have the chance to win this week's $2,000 prize, but you'll be entered for the random $10,000 drawing in a couple weeks!

With the uncertainty of Allen showing up in a pivotal playoff game and the fact that the Chiefs defense has transformed into one of the better units in the NFL over the last half of the season, I would go under this number. Kansas City has been ranked top 10 against both the run and pass over this stretch, and the Bills have transitioned to more of a running team over the last half of the year.

I think this will be a close game that should be great, but I'd take the under here with how well Buffalo has been on the ground recently, not needing Allen to be the star on every play.

Make sure to check out my preview and prediction for this game as well!

Get a BetQL Day Pass for just $4.99 to see all of our best bets across every sport!