Week 10 of the NFL regular season is in the books. Once again, public sides did very well on Sunday. The Lions, Colts and Cowboys – the three most bet sides – all covered the spread.
Elsewhere, the Browns produced a roaring comeback win over the Ravens, while the 49ers got back to their winning ways against the Jaguars. On Monday night, the Broncos pulled off a shock win against the Bills as big underdogs.
Now, Week 11 NFL betting lines are live. Here’s a look at the current spreads and totals, as well as my best bets.
I’m done trying to figure out the luck associated with this Steelers side.
Despite sitting at 6-3, all nine of Pittsburgh’s opponents have outgained them this season. However, they’re still seventh in defensive DVOA, including eighth against the pass, per ftnfantasy.com.
Simply put, I can’t see a scenario where Deshaun Watson avoids mistakes to lead the Browns to a convincing victory.
Pittsburgh also matches two historically profitable NFL betting systems.
Since 2018-19, divisional dogs with a total below 42 are 60.7% ATS, including 9-5-1 ATS in 2023-24.
Plus, home favorites between -3.5 and -11 after playing on the road the previous week are 43.1% ATS since 2019-20.
Take the Steelers at +3.5 or better.
I hate this bet so much, but it must be made.
This marks only the fourth time Washington is listed as a favorite this season. In the three previous games, they’re 0-3 ATS.
It’s also the third time the Commanders are -6 or higher. In the two previous games, they’re 1-1 straight up and 0-2 ATS.
I recognize the Giants have a quarterback problem, but Saquon Barkley is still an above-average running back.
In Week 11, New York faces a Commanders team 30th in defensive DVOA, and 21st in adjusted yards per attempt.
New York also matches the same systems as the Steelers – divisional dogs with a low total and home favorites after traveling.
The Commanders probably win the game, but I question if they win by multiple scores.
The vibes are high in Vegas following Antonio Pierce’s 2-0 straight up and ATS start.
But are we really going to upgrade this team based off wins against the Giants and Jets?
Miami, who enters this game off a bye week, is a massive upgrade in talent over the two aforementioned sides.
Plus, on Sunday night against the Jets, the Raiders posted a near -100 yardage differential. They also allowed Zach Wilson and the 30th-ranked pass offense DVOA side to throw for 257 yards.
Now they face a rested Dolphins team fourth in that category.
Miami is 4-0 straight up at home this season and has won all four games by at least two touchdowns.
Las Vegas, meanwhile, has lost four straight away from home. In two games against teams with winning records, the Raiders own a -20 point differential per game.
Sell high on the Raiders and back the Dolphins at what feels like a discounted number.
Two rested teams in a primetime slot? Color me interested in a slog.
Bettors will remember these sides exploded for 73 points in the Super Bowl, but a lot has changed since that encounter.
The first is that the Chiefs defense is markedly better. Entering this game, Kansas City ranks third in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Even more impressive is that record has come against the ninth-hardest set of opposing offenses.
Although the Eagles are 19th in defensive DVOA, they’ve faced some injuries recently and are finally fully healthy.
Lastly, this total matches two historically profitable betting systems.
Primetime unders are 60.1% since 2018-19, including 25-7 this season.
Moreover, games featuring two teams with at least eight days of rest are 95-45-1 (67.9%) since the 2018-19 season.
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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.