BetMGM: Best NFL Picks & Predictions For Week 13

Best NFL Picks & Predictions For Week 13

Week 12 of the NFL regular season is in the books. In the first 15 games of the week, favorites dominated against the spread. As it stands, such sides are 12-3 against the spread and straight up. 

Notable results from Week 12 include the Packers upsetting the Lions, the Eagles winning in overtime against the Bills and the Steelers defeating the Bengals.

Now, Week 13 NFL betting lines are live. Here’s a look at the early spreads and totals, as well as my best bets for the action. 

Washington Commanders Spread (+9.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

This bet completely grosses me out, but it must be done. 

I recognize the Commanders surrendered 45 points to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, but I want to focus on their offense. 

Despite scoring only 10 points, Washington did a good job moving the football. In Week 12, they amassed 376 total yards, including 108 on the ground. 

Plus, they only turned the ball over one time against a Cowboys defense third in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Now they face a Dolphins defense that has had it easy recently. In their last two games, they’ve faced the Jets (30th in offensive DVOA) and Raiders (29th). 

The Commanders are only a slight upgrade – they’re 22nd – but bettors have seen them play well at home against good defenses, namely Philadelphia. 

Lastly, the Commanders match a historically profitable betting system. 

Since 2003-04, teams coming off a 20+ point loss playing a team that won by 15 or more are 60.7% ATS. 

When those teams are at home, they’re 65.1% ATS. 

New York Jets Spread (+2.5, -105) vs. Atlanta Falcons

What this bet comes down to for me: Do you really trust Desmond Ridder against the Jets defense? I don’t. 

The Falcons captured a great home win against the Saints, while the Jets received a thumping from the Dolphins. 

But the Falcons offense is not on the level of the Dolphins. They’re also averaging only 15 road points per game compared to 24 points at home. 

We’ve also seen the market overcorrect on the Falcons before. 

Following a road win against the Bucs, they closed as road favorites against the Titans and lost the game outright. 

Lastly, the Jets match a number of historically profitable betting systems. 

Underdogs with a total below 42 are 60% ATS this season, while underdogs after a 20+ point loss are 61.5% ATS since 2018-19. 

Lastly, fading teams who go from closing as a home underdog to a road favorite has bettors finishing 55.8% ATS, including 7-4-1 this season. 

Buccaneers-Panthers Total Under 37.5 Points (-110) 

I really want to build the courage to bet the Panthers +6, but the under feels a safer play. 

Tampa Bay has played two straight road games, surrendering 27 points in both. However, they’re significantly better at home. 

The Bucs allow only 16.8 points per game at home compared to 23.8 on the road. Regarding the former, it’s the eighth-best mark in the league. 

Further, in two divisional contests this season, Tampa has held both opponents under 16 points. 

That said, I don’t fully trust their offense. In non-dome games this year, Tampa is scoring only 15.6 points per game. 

This is also a system play. Since 2011-12, outdoor games with closing totals below 39 are 59.4% to the under, including 16-11 when it’s a divisional game. 

Finally, NFC South games are 13-4 to the under over the last two seasons, including 5-0 this season.

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.