Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills Week 1 Preview: Best Bet, Odds, and Prediction
Bills Set to Dominate as Cardinals Seek Upset in High-Scoring Week 1 Matchup
Kate Constable - Aug 29, 2024, 9:18am EDT
Week 1 Matchup Preview: Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
Date: September 8, 2024, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
BetMGM Odds: Bills -275, Bills -6, O/U 48
The NFL season opener features the Arizona Cardinals traveling to face the Buffalo Bills in a Week 1 matchup at Highmark Stadium. The Bills, one of the league’s top contenders, enter the game as solid favorites, with BetMGM setting the odds at Bills -275 and a spread of -6. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, led by their dynamic offense, are looking to pull off an upset in a tough road environment. With the over/under set at 48, this game is expected to be a high-scoring affair. In this article, we’ll dive into the best bets, odds, and predictions for this exciting Week 1 contest.
My Best Bet: Bills -6
Under Sean McDermott, the Bills have gone 18-8 ATS in the first month of the season and I expect them to get off to a hot start in this matchup against the Cardinals. While Stefon Diggs may be gone, Josh Allen will be at the helm of a fun, talented offense and has a fantastic matchup. Here are three factors to pay attention to. First, the Bills had a third down conversion rate of 49.8% last season — best in the NFL. Second, the Cardinals defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 47.3% last season — worst in the NFL. The Bills ran 16.5% offensive plays in the red zone last season — 5th-best in NFL. Finally, the Cardinals allowed their opponent to run 19.1% of plays in the red zone last season — worst in NFL. The Bills were successful on 50.2% of plays they have run with motion last season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Cardinals allowed their opponents to be successful on 46.3% of plays against motion last season — T-3rd-worst in the NFL. With both coaching staffs from last season in tact, I think those stats are worth considering when looking at this Week 1 battle.
Kyler Murray is back and healthy and Marvin Harrison Jr. should give him another weapon to utilize, but this Bills defense should have an edge at home. The Bills defense allowed -0.67 epa per play with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04. Also, Buffalo’s defense allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%. They also allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 1 of 552 attempts (0%) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1%. This is going to be an elite unit once again, in my opinion. Give me the Bills to cover.
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