Adam Chernoff: Bet the Rams Under 10.5 Wins

Yesterday, NFL Expert Adam Chernoff joined Ken Barkley and Chris Rongey on You Better You Bet to talk about the upcoming NFL season.

Here are the nuggets that stuck out:

Team He is Looking to Fade

The team I question the most is the Los Angeles Rams. They're at 10.5 now and you can get a decent price to go under on that number. Everyone is speaking about it like it's a sure thing that Stafford is going to come in and do well. McVay, after a couple of years, has become pretty questionable in his play-calling. Specifically out of halftime and his adjusting to his opponents defensively. A lot of that has worn off.

They lose Akers and they are very starter heavy on both sides of the football. Then, quietly amongst all of this upgrading that they've done, they lost six coaches from last year. So there is going to be a significant step back on the defensive side of the football. The numbers last year they put out was against a very weak schedule. There is no way they are attaining those numbers again. They lose two key starters on that side and they don't go out and sign any defensive starters to come in and replace any of those guys.

They are playing out of the West in a very difficult division with all three of those teams around them arguably improving this year. These double-digit totals historically in the NFL, about 45% of them go over. There's a handful of them this year and I'm just more sure about the other teams this year that are priced at 10.5 than the Rams. I just think a lot of things can go wrong and it is not going to take much to sort of topple them. It's such a high win total and a tough number to get to, so of all those teams that are priced high, the Rams certainly stick out to me to look under.