3 NFL Betting Trends for Week 10 From BetMGM

Week 10 NFL Betting Trends

With four teams on bye in Week 10 – the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, and New York Jets – 14 NFL games are available at BetMGM this week. The schedule starts with the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football and ends with the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football. Here are three NFL betting trends to consider for Week 10.

Shrinking Under

From 2015-18, there were 123 regular-season games in which the over/under total decreased by at least two points from open to close. The under went 73-47-3 (.608) in those games.

Then the trend flipped in 2019 when the under went just 18-21 (.462) when the total decreased by at least two points. 

But it only lasted one year; the under went 24-18 and 37-26 in 2020 and 2021, respectively, and is in the same neighborhood this year. Through Week 9, the under has hit in 15 of 26 opportunities (.577).

Follow BetMGM data analyst John Ewing on Twitter for updated line movement.

Bet NFL risk-free up to $1,000 at BetMGM right now! Take advantage below!

Kyle Shanahan in Primetime

Kyle Shanahan’s San Francisco 49ers covered in three of his first four regular-season primetime games as head coach. Since then they are 6-10 ATS, including 3-7 the last three seasons (2020-22). 

In all other games in the last three seasons, Shanahan is 17-14 ATS.

There are 15 other active coaches (including Frank Reich) who’ve been in their current position since 2020. Shanahan has the worst primetime cover rate (.300) and ROI (-42.5%) among them.

As of Monday, the 49ers are a 7-point home favorite against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football in Week 10.

Big First-Half Favorites

For nearly a decade, betting on big first-half underdogs (at least +5) was consistently profitable. From 2012-20, those teams covered in approximately 56% of opportunities, produced an ROI of +9.3%, and only once finished under .500 (11-12-1 in 2016).

That’s no longer the case; the trend has flipped to the favorites over the last two seasons. 

First-half favorites of at least five points finished three games above .500 in 2021 and – even with an 0-3 record in Week 9 – are already three games above .500 in 2022.

As of Monday, first-half spreads aren’t available for Week 10 games, though it appears the Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) and Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington Commanders) will fall within this trend.

Bet NFL risk-free up to $1,000 at BetMGM right now! Take advantage below!

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.

Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL, NBA, NHL and NCAA football and basketball games! Start your free trial today!