BetQL Simulations Project Surprising 2024 NFL Passing TD Leader

Analyze BetMGM betting trends and BetQL simulations to find out who’s set to dominate.

Matthew Horner - Jul 10, 2024, 3:01pm EDT

The 2024 NFL season is set to showcase some of the most electrifying passing attacks in recent memory, and the competition for the most passing touchdowns is fierce. In this article, we'll delve into the key statistics and betting data to uncover the top contenders. We'll explore the highest ticket percentage, highest handle percentage, biggest liability, and the current odds leader, using data from our friends at BetMGM. Additionally, we'll reveal simulation data after running every game 10,000 times through BetQL's advanced NFL model. Whether you’re a bettor, a fantasy football enthusiast, or simply a passionate NFL fan, this analysis will provide valuable insights into the quarterbacks vying for the most passing touchdowns in 2024.

Betting Data & Simulation Results: Most Passing Touchdowns

As we approach the 2024 NFL season, the race for the most passing touchdowns is garnering significant attention. Here’s a summary of the key data points:

Highest Ticket%: Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs leads with 12.4% of tickets. He opened and remains at +500 odds, with BetQL's simulation projecting him to throw 28 touchdowns. Mahomes has led the NFL in touchdown passes in two of the last six seasons and is always a threat to do so. Even with reduced weapons and very questionable wide receivers, he still gets the job done and is in the running every year.
Highest Handle%: Aaron Rodgers of the New York Jets commands the highest handle percentage at 37.6%. His odds opened and remain at +1000, with a simulation projection of 24 touchdowns. Rodgers led the league in 2016 and 2020, but both of those seasons were with the Green Bay Packers. He's coming off a torn ACL, which he suffered on the very first drive of last season with the Jets. Still, he will have a talented group around him and we know what he is capable of.
Biggest Liability: Will Levis of the Tennessee Titans is the biggest liability, having opened and remained at +10000. The simulation projects him to throw for 23 touchdowns. This one is a bit of a head-scratcher, as the Titans are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league in 2024. Some people will be really counting on Levis to have a large sophomore jump in his performance, but at 100/1, the gamble could pay off.
Odds Leader: Patrick Mahomes is also the odds leader, with consistent +500 odds and a simulation projection of 28 touchdowns. Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL, and it makes sense that he would be the favorite to lead the league in touchdowns. The Chiefs are coming off of back-to-back Super Bowl championships and have been dominating the NFL for years.

BetQL's simulations project Geno Smith to lead the NFL with 33 touchdowns, with Baker Mayfield expected to come in second with 30 touchdowns.

Best Bet: Geno Smith (+4000)