2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Insights & Best Bets

Changes to CPOY Criteria

Joe Flacco went from watching the 2023 NFL season from the comfort of his own couch to leading the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs. The Browns signed the veteran quarterback midway through the season after injuries forced them to turn to their fourth starter of the year.

Flacco had a remarkable late-season performance that included leading the Browns to a four-game winning streak while throwing for 1,616 passing yards and 13 touchdowns in just five starts.

The achievement marked a significant turnaround for Flacco, earning him the Comeback Player of the Year award.

He won the award over Bills safety Damar Hamlin, who was the heavy front-runner for nearly the entire season. Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest in Week 17 of the 2022 season and miraculously came back to play in a handful of games last year.

The difference between Flacco's and Hamlin's comeback stories sparked debate, resulting in the Associated Press updating the criteria for the award.

“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season,” voters for the award will be told as their guidance for voting on the award, according to AP senior NFL writer Rob Maaddi, who oversees All-Pro and NFL awards voting.

In other words, the award should go to a player who overcame physical adversity rather than someone rebounding from a poor performance year.

For the 2024 season, the new criteria favor players like Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Anthony Richardson and Nick Chubb, who are recovering from injuries, over those like Russell Wilson, whose play declined last year.

Bettors Love Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb suffered a terrible knee injury just two games into the 2023 season, tearing his MCL and damaging his ACL. He's expected back on the field this season, and bettors seem to think he's a quality candidate for Comeback Player of the Year.

According to BetMGM, Chubb has the book's highest ticket percentage (14.7%) and handle percentage (16.9%). The Browns running back has the fifth shortest odds to win the award at +1200, down from his opening odds of +1500.

Chubb rushed for 1,525 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2022 and has hit the 1,000-yard mark in four of his five full NFL seasons. The only year he missed this mark was his rookie season, finishing just four yards shy with 996.

While he was put on the PUP list to start training camp and is still going through his rehab, there's reason to think he's capable of a monster season once he's able to hit the field.

Chubb suffered a similar injury in 2015 at Georgia, tearing his PCL, MCL, and LCL in his left knee. He missed the rest of the season but eventually worked his way back on the field, rushing for over 2,400 yards in his final two seasons.

The Browns have solid backup running backs with Jerome Ford and D'Onta Foreman handling the preseason snaps, but Chubb should be the starter as soon as he's back. If he can pick up where he left off and post another 1,000-yard season, he'll certainly be in the award conversation at the end of the year.

Other CPOY Candidates

Insights from BetMGM also indicate that Kyler Murray is the book's biggest liability to win the Comeback Player of the Year award after he missed the first half of the 2023 season while rehabbing from a torn ACL. At +3000, he’s a compelling candidate, especially with Marvin Harrison Jr. and other strong receiving weapons to throw to. However, I’m unsure how realistic his chances are, given that he played in the final eight games last season.

Joe Burrow, on the other hand, doesn’t offer the same value at +240, but he is a more realistic contender. In his two fully healthy seasons, Burrow led the Bengals to an AFC Championship and a Super Bowl appearance. He also threw for over 4,400 yards in both years while recording at least 34 touchdowns and no more than 14 interceptions.

If Burrow takes home the award this season, it would be the second of his young career. He suffered a season-ending injury just 10 games into his rookie season but came back in his second season and threw for 4,611 yards.

Assuming Burrow remains fully healthy this year, posting those kinds of numbers would certainly be enough to win Comeback Player of the Year once again.