The BetQL Simulation Model is ready to reveal its first projections for the upcoming 2023 NFL season. Some of the projections below may shock you, but this is a great time to capitalize on mispriced futures. We have simulated every game of the upcoming season 10,000 times, and it looks like the upcoming season is going to be quite exciting. Every NFL season has twists and turns, and this one will be no different. Let’s dive right into it.
The AFC North figures to be one of the toughest divisions in the NFL this season. The Bengals have been to back-to-back AFC Championships, but it is very tough to have three straight seasons with so much success.
The Baltimore Ravens should always be viewed as a threat to everyone in the division, and now with Odell Beckham Jr. in the fold, gives newly re-signed QB Lamar Jackson a top-target on offense. Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman all figure to have good seasons, as the defense that has been top-10 in seven of the last eight seasons returns.
The Browns could be one of the best teams in football, or one of the worst. With DeShaun Watson having a full-season now, we’ll see if he can get back to his past form. The elite rushing attack will remain, led by Myles Garrett on defense.
The Steelers haven’t had a losing season for 16 consecutive years. Kenny Pickett enters his second season, along with George Pickens, who is poised for a breakout year. Our simulation is giving the Bengals a projection of nine wins and is giving them a 55% chance to miss the playoffs, thus making the following two futures the best bets on the board:
Under 11.5 Regular Season Wins (-120, BetMGM)
Bengals To Miss Playoffs (+300, Caesars)
While we still only give them a 31% chance to make the playoffs, we believe that the Texans will have a much better season than many might be predicting, with 8.1 wins and a 19% chance to win the AFC South. New rookie QB C.J. Stroud makes his NFL debut after much hype out of Ohio State. If he has a good rookie season and shows a lot of growth, it is entirely possible that the Texans could make the Wild Card. New head coach DeMeco Ryans could lead a quick turnaround with Stroud under center, and we can get some serious plus money on them for several future bets. New head coach and QB combos can be unpredictable, so getting long odds on them can be valuable.
As for the rest of the division, the Jaguars are the odds-on favorite. Trusting Jacksonville to have back-to-back good seasons is hard to do, as they haven’t done it in quite a while. The Titans have gutted their roster over the last several years, and there are a ton of questions at the QB position with Ryan Tannehill. The Colts have serious issues of their own at the position, and Anthony Richardson isn’t ready to start yet. These are the best bets right now, per our model:
Over 5.5 Regular Season Wins (-150, Caesars)
Texans To Make Playoffs (+650, Caesars)
Texans To Win AFC South Division (+950, Caesars)
The Vikings won 13 games last season with one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing second-most passing yards and fifth-most points per game in 2022. It’s natural to think there is going to be some regression, and there probably will be, but determining how much is the real question to be had. How quickly can Brian Flores change the defense to make them competitive? He was spectacular in doing so when he was with Miami, and now he can just focus on that instead of head coaching duties as well. This is a team that still has Justin Jefferson, the best receiver in the league, and they should be just fine on that side of the ball. We’re projecting them to win 9.6 games and are giving them a 48% chance to win the division and a 70% chance to make the playoffs.
The rest of the division has their strengths and weaknesses. The Lions look to be much improved, but again, this is the Lions we are talking about here. Their defense was also really bad last season, and they will also have to make a leap on that side, while also maintaining their offense from last year. The Bears should be an improved team, but after being the worst team in football in 2022, I doubt they make that much of a jump in a single year. The Packers lost Aaron Rodgers, and we don’t have a clue what Jordan Love will do. He inherits the same roster that Rodgers couldn’t make the playoffs with, so chances are he struggles a bit.
Over 8.5 Regular Season Wins (-115, FanDuel)
Vikings To Make Playoffs (+125, BetMGM)
Vikings To Win NFC North Division (+325, BetMGM)
Betting on NFL futures can be an exciting way to engage with the sport and potentially make long-term predictions about teams and players. Here's a step-by-step guide on how to bet on NFL futures:
Remember that sports betting involves an element of chance, and there are no guarantees of winning. It's essential to approach betting with a responsible mindset and to enjoy the process regardless of the outcome.
There are several types of NFL futures bets that you can place, allowing you to make predictions on various outcomes that will be determined in the future. Here are some common types of NFL futures bets:
These are just a few examples of the various types of NFL futures bets available. Different sportsbooks may offer additional prop bets or customized futures options based on specific events or circumstances. It's important to explore the options provided by your chosen sportsbook and understand the specific rules and odds associated with each bet type.