2023 NFL Futures: Simulation Model Results

2023 NFL Futures: Best Bets From Simulation Model

The BetQL Simulation Model is ready to reveal its first projections for the upcoming 2023 NFL season. Some of the projections below may shock you, but this is a great time to capitalize on mispriced futures. We have simulated every game of the upcoming season 10,000 times, and it looks like the upcoming season is going to be quite exciting. Every NFL season has twists and turns, and this one will be no different. Let’s dive right into it.

Fade The Cincinnati Bengals In Tough AFC North

The AFC North figures to be one of the toughest divisions in the NFL this season. The Bengals have been to back-to-back AFC Championships, but it is very tough to have three straight seasons with so much success. 

The Baltimore Ravens should always be viewed as a threat to everyone in the division, and now with Odell Beckham Jr. in the fold, gives newly re-signed QB Lamar Jackson a top-target on offense. Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman all figure to have good seasons, as the defense that has been top-10 in seven of the last eight seasons returns.

The Browns could be one of the best teams in football, or one of the worst. With DeShaun Watson having a full-season now, we’ll see if he can get back to his past form. The elite rushing attack will remain, led by Myles Garrett on defense.

The Steelers haven’t had a losing season for 16 consecutive years. Kenny Pickett enters his second season, along with George Pickens, who is poised for a breakout year. Our simulation is giving the Bengals a projection of nine wins and is giving them a 55% chance to miss the playoffs, thus making the following two futures the best bets on the board:

Under 11.5 Regular Season Wins (-120, BetMGM)

Bengals To Miss Playoffs (+300, Caesars)

Back The Houston Texans As Legitimate Sleepers

While we still only give them a 31% chance to make the playoffs, we believe that the Texans will have a much better season than many might be predicting, with 8.1 wins and a 19% chance to win the AFC South. New rookie QB C.J. Stroud makes his NFL debut after much hype out of Ohio State. If he has a good rookie season and shows a lot of growth, it is entirely possible that the Texans could make the Wild Card. New head coach DeMeco Ryans could lead a quick turnaround with Stroud under center, and we can get some serious plus money on them for several future bets. New head coach and QB combos can be unpredictable, so getting long odds on them can be valuable. 

As for the rest of the division, the Jaguars are the odds-on favorite. Trusting Jacksonville to have back-to-back good seasons is hard to do, as they haven’t done it in quite a while. The Titans have gutted their roster over the last several years, and there are a ton of questions at the QB position with Ryan Tannehill. The Colts have serious issues of their own at the position, and Anthony Richardson isn’t ready to start yet. These are the best bets right now, per our model:

Over 5.5 Regular Season Wins (-150, Caesars)

Texans To Make Playoffs (+650, Caesars)

Texans To Win AFC South Division (+950, Caesars)

Trust The Minnesota Vikings To Succeed Again

The Vikings won 13 games last season with one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing second-most passing yards and fifth-most points per game in 2022. It’s natural to think there is going to be some regression, and there probably will be, but determining how much is the real question to be had. How quickly can Brian Flores change the defense to make them competitive? He was spectacular in doing so when he was with Miami, and now he can just focus on that instead of head coaching duties as well. This is a team that still has Justin Jefferson, the best receiver in the league, and they should be just fine on that side of the ball. We’re projecting them to win 9.6 games and are giving them a 48% chance to win the division and a 70% chance to make the playoffs.

The rest of the division has their strengths and weaknesses. The Lions look to be much improved, but again, this is the Lions we are talking about here. Their defense was also really bad last season, and they will also have to make a leap on that side, while also maintaining their offense from last year. The Bears should be an improved team, but after being the worst team in football in 2022, I doubt they make that much of a jump in a single year. The Packers lost Aaron Rodgers, and we don’t have a clue what Jordan Love will do. He inherits the same roster that Rodgers couldn’t make the playoffs with, so chances are he struggles a bit. 

Over 8.5 Regular Season Wins (-115, FanDuel)

Vikings To Make Playoffs (+125, BetMGM)

Vikings To Win NFC North Division (+325, BetMGM)

How To Bet NFL Futures

Betting on NFL futures can be an exciting way to engage with the sport and potentially make long-term predictions about teams and players. Here's a step-by-step guide on how to bet on NFL futures:

1. Understand NFL Futures: NFL futures bets are wagers placed on outcomes that will be determined at a later date, such as the Super Bowl winner, division winners, conference champions, or individual player awards like MVP or Rookie of the Year. Familiarize yourself with the different futures markets available and the specific rules for each type of bet.
2. Research and Analyze: Before placing any bets, conduct thorough research on teams, players, and the overall league. Consider factors like team performance, player injuries, coaching changes, and any other relevant information that might impact future outcomes. Stay updated with NFL news, team rosters, and preseason performances.
3. Choose a Sportsbook: Find a reputable sportsbook or online betting platform that offers NFL futures betting. Look for platforms with a wide range of betting options, competitive odds, and a user-friendly interface. Ensure that the sportsbook is licensed and regulated to ensure the safety of your funds.
4. Compare Odds: Different sportsbooks may offer slightly different odds for the same futures bet. It's advisable to compare the odds across multiple platforms to ensure you get the best value for your wager. Even slight variations in odds can make a significant difference in your potential payout.
5. Set a Budget: Determine your betting budget and establish a bankroll management strategy. Set aside an amount of money you can comfortably afford to lose, as futures bets tie up your funds until the outcome is determined. Avoid chasing losses and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
6. Place Your Bets: Once you have done your research and selected the NFL futures bets you want to place, go to your chosen sportsbook's website or app. Navigate to the NFL section and locate the futures market. Select the bet you wish to make and enter the stake amount. Review your bet slip to confirm the details before submitting your wager.
7. Monitor Your Bets: After placing your bets, stay engaged with the NFL season, monitoring team and player performances, injuries, and other relevant developments. Keep track of how your futures bets are progressing and adjust your expectations accordingly.
8. Cash Out or Wait: Depending on the sportsbook and the specific futures bet, you may have the option to cash out your bet before the outcome is determined. This can be useful if you want to secure a guaranteed profit or minimize potential losses. Evaluate the available options and make an informed decision.

Remember that sports betting involves an element of chance, and there are no guarantees of winning. It's essential to approach betting with a responsible mindset and to enjoy the process regardless of the outcome.

Types Of NFL Futures Bets

There are several types of NFL futures bets that you can place, allowing you to make predictions on various outcomes that will be determined in the future. Here are some common types of NFL futures bets:

1. Super Bowl Winner: This is a bet on which team will win the Super Bowl. You can place your bet before the season begins or at any point during the season.
2. Conference Champions: Similar to the Super Bowl winner bet, this type of bet involves predicting which team will win their respective conference (AFC or NFC) and advance to the Super Bowl.
3. Division Winners: This bet involves predicting which team will win their division within the AFC or NFC. Each conference is divided into four divisions, and you can bet on the team you think will come out on top in each division.
4. Regular Season Win Totals: This bet involves predicting the total number of wins a team will have during the regular season. Oddsmakers set a number, and you can bet on whether the team will have more (over) or fewer (under) wins than the specified total.
5. Player Awards: These bets focus on individual player achievements and awards. Some popular player futures bets include Most Valuable Player (MVP), Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and leading the league in categories like passing yards, rushing yards, or receiving yards.
6. Team Props: These are specific bets related to team performance or milestones. For example, you can bet on whether a team will make the playoffs, have a winning or losing record, or achieve certain statistical milestones (e.g., most touchdowns scored, fewest points allowed).
7. Coach of the Year: This bet involves predicting which NFL head coach will be awarded the Coach of the Year at the end of the season. It is usually based on a coach's team performance and success.

These are just a few examples of the various types of NFL futures bets available. Different sportsbooks may offer additional prop bets or customized futures options based on specific events or circumstances. It's important to explore the options provided by your chosen sportsbook and understand the specific rules and odds associated with each bet type.