2023 NFL Futures: Diontae Johnson Poised For Huge Bounce Back
Why Pittsburgh’s No. 1 wideout should have a major bounce back season
Dan Karpuc - Jul 23, 2023, 11:42am EDT
Diontae Johnson To Lead NFL In Total Receptions (+6000, FanDuel)
Diontae Johnson, No. 1 wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers, is an enticing option for bettors looking to place a wager on the NFL leader in total receptions. With odds set at +6000 on FanDuel, that outcome may seem like a long shot, but a closer look at Johnson's skills, situation, and potential reveals that this bet is a smart choice.
Consistent Performance and Bounce Back Potential
Despite a frustrating NFL record of 86 catches in the 2022 season without scoring a single touchdown, Johnson has consistently proven himself as a reliable target for his team. In the 2021 season, he recorded an impressive 107 catches for 1,161 yards, ranking 6th in the NFL in receptions. This past season's lack of touchdowns seems like an anomaly rather than a pattern, making it highly likely that Johnson will bounce back and deliver a more productive year. One thing is for certain: he’s going to get plenty of opportunities once again.
"We're going to get him the ball. He's going to do his thing," quarterback Kenny Pickett said on the "Not Just Football with Cam Heyward" podcast. "I'm excited for him to have a big year. He's going to have a bounce back year."
High-Quality Route Runner
One of Johnson's greatest assets is his elite route-running ability. Many consider him to be among the best route runners in the NFL, enabling him to create separation from defenders and position himself favorably to receive passes. His 85th percentile success against man coverage, 88th percentile rate against zone, and 84th percentile rate against press coverage demonstrate his versatility and effectiveness against various defensive schemes.
For context, he ran 47.7% of his routes against man coverage and had a success rate of 76.1% last season. He saw zone coverage in 52.3% of his routes and had a success rate 83.7% and overall, he saw press coverage 27.4% of the time with a success rate 77.9%. That’s elite across the board. And makes him extremely hard for opposing defenses to contain.
Diontae Johnson To Lead NFL In Total Receptions (+6000, FanDuel)
Diontae Johnson, No. 1 wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers, is an enticing option for bettors looking to place a wager on the NFL leader in total receptions. With odds set at +6000 on FanDuel, that outcome may seem like a long shot, but a closer look at Johnson's skills, situation, and potential reveals that this bet is a smart choice.
Consistent Performance and Bounce Back Potential
Despite a frustrating NFL record of 86 catches in the 2022 season without scoring a single touchdown, Johnson has consistently proven himself as a reliable target for his team. In the 2021 season, he recorded an impressive 107 catches for 1,161 yards, ranking 6th in the NFL in receptions. This past season's lack of touchdowns seems like an anomaly rather than a pattern, making it highly likely that Johnson will bounce back and deliver a more productive year. One thing is for certain: he’s going to get plenty of opportunities once again.
"We're going to get him the ball. He's going to do his thing," quarterback Kenny Pickett said on the "Not Just Football with Cam Heyward" podcast. "I'm excited for him to have a big year. He's going to have a bounce back year."
High-Quality Route Runner
One of Johnson's greatest assets is his elite route-running ability. Many consider him to be among the best route runners in the NFL, enabling him to create separation from defenders and position himself favorably to receive passes. His 85th percentile success against man coverage, 88th percentile rate against zone, and 84th percentile rate against press coverage demonstrate his versatility and effectiveness against various defensive schemes.
For context, he ran 47.7% of his routes against man coverage and had a success rate of 76.1% last season. He saw zone coverage in 52.3% of his routes and had a success rate 83.7% and overall, he saw press coverage 27.4% of the time with a success rate 77.9%. That’s elite across the board. And makes him extremely hard for opposing defenses to contain.
Massive Target Share
With an array of other receiving options on the Steelers' roster, Johnson's potential to dominate the target share is impressive. Pickett's familiarity with Johnson and the assurance of being the team's clear No. 1 option further solidifies his chances of accumulating a significant number of receptions. While other receivers and tight ends will earn targets, Johnson's consistent performance and rapport with Pickett make him the primary target for a large portion of the passing game.
Other Steelers WR include George Pickens, Allen Robinson II, Calvin Austin III, Gunner Olszewski, Miles Boykin, Ja’Marcus Bradley, Dez Fitzpatrick, Cody White, Dan Chisena, Hakeem Butler, Jordan Byrd. So, Johnson should be in store for a huge target share. He will also lose some targets to tight ends (Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Zach Gentry, Connor Heyward) and running backs (Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Anthony McFarland Jr., Jason Huntley), but overall, I expect double-digit targets to be a staple for Johnson on a weekly basis.
Stability With Quarterback And Offensive Coordinator
Kenny Pickett's second year as a full-time starter and offensive coordinator Matt Canada's third year with the team should lead to more passing opportunities for Johnson. Pickett's growth as a quarterback and Canada's familiarity with Johnson's skill set provide an optimistic outlook for the upcoming season.
More than anything, Pickett’s status as the starting QB entering the year will help Johnson, who admitted that not knowing whether Mitch Trubisky or Pickett would be under center created differences in his preparation last year.
“You can kind of prepare, like, I got such-and-such as a quarterback. Helps you know what to do. I’m not saying anything negative toward any of them [quarterbacks]. iIt just helps you to know what to expect. So, I feel like that has helped me out a lot.” Johnson said in an interview with Bo Marchionte from college2pro.com.
Comparisons To Top Performers
Justin Jefferson led the NFL with 128 catches and 184 targets last season. If healthy, Johnson has the upside to record a similar output given the massive volume he’s going to see.
In conclusion, Diontae Johnson's skill set, historical performance, and favorable situation make him an attractive option for bettors eyeing the NFL leader in total receptions. The combination of his status as a proven elite route runner, his presumed significant target share and a promising quarterback and offensive coordinator scenario all point towards Johnson having a real shot at topping the charts in receptions.
At +6000 odds on FanDuel, this bet is undoubtedly a smart and calculated play that could yield substantial returns for those who place their trust in Johnson's potential.
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