Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs

Washington Commanders Prediction

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders Prediction

In the third game of the Saturday slate of Wild Card Weekend, the Washington Football Team (7-9) hosts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) at FedExField at 8:15 p.m. Oddsmakers currently have the Buccaneers listed as -8 favorites (-425 ML), and the over/under currently sits at 45 total points.

Tampa Bay found success in its first season with Tom Brady at the helm, with more wins than all but three teams in the NFC. Washington struggled early in head coach Ron Rivera’s first year with the franchise, but Rivera had his squad playing good football when it mattered most. It narrowly edged out Dallas, Philadelphia, and New York in Week 17, winning the lowly NFC East for the first time since the Alex Smith “You like that!” Redskins.

The majority of the nation will be picking the Buccaneers straight-up in this one—but let’s dive in and see what to expect in terms of spread and over/under bets.

Washington Commanders Preview

This season was all about the comeback for the team with no name. Alex Smith returned after a two-year recovery following a horrendous leg injury. Ron Rivera came back after courageously battling squamous neck cancer. And the organization battled back after countless PR eye sores.

Never mind the fact that the 2020 NFC East has been one of the worst divisions in NFL history—the WFT made a run at the playoffs and got in. Smith has been very dependable under center, making recently-released second-year QB (and 2019 first-round pick) Dwayne Haskins seem like a distant memory. Logan Thomas has finally emerged as an elite pass-catching tight end. And Rivera’s defense has been awesome, led by 2020 No. 2 pick Chase Young on the d-line.

Young finished his rookie season with 7.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, 12 QB hits, and 32 solo tackles. He earned Pro Bowl honors, and will most likely win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Montez Sweat deserves a lot of credit alongside him, as the 24-year-old had nine sacks and 20 QB hits. Ryan Kerrigan and Tim Settle also combined for 11.5 sacks. Linebacker Jon Bostic has swallowed up the run game with 118 total tackles. Kendall Fuller, Kamren Curl, and Fabian Moreau have highlighted a strong secondary.

Washington’s best asset has been its incredible defense. It ranks in the top four in the NFL in the following categories: points allowed, first downs allowed, and red-zone defense. It has allowed the second-fewest total yards, passing yards, and average plays per drive. Only four squads have more interceptions.

If not for WFT forcing 14 interceptions over the course of its past seven games, it might have fared worse than its 5-2 finish. The offense has not been bad under Smith, with play-makers like rookie back Antonio Gibson, pass-catching back J.D. McKissic, blazing fast second-year wide-out Terry McLaurin, and Thomas at tight end. But it hasn’t been as good as the rest of the playoff field, either.

It could be a long Saturday evening for Rivera’s squad, especially if his offense fails to reach 250 total yards like it did in an underwhelming win over the tanking Eagles last Sunday night. The team has averaged just 308.7 total yards of offense in its last seven games, and turned the ball over nine times in the last four games.

But Washington is 9-7 against the spread, and 5-3 ATS at home. It’s also 8-5 as an underdog. It’s a team that can get gritty and punch you in the mouth, and Young has already tweeted that he’s “coming” for Tom Brady. I wouldn’t doubt that if I was Brady, and I wouldn’t write WFT off completely if I was betting on this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview

Just like so many of his seasons in New England, Tom Brady is hitting on all cylinders at exactly the right time. Going into the playoffs, Brady has led the Buccaneers to four straight wins, averaging 37 points per game in the process. Brady has thrown for an average of 411 yards in Tampa’s past three games, and he only has one interception since late November.

Bettors will likely be keeping an eye on the status of Mike Evans, Brady’s top wide receiver (and favorite target). Washington has a couple strong cornerbacks, but it might have some trouble slowing down the quartet of Evans, Chris Godwin Antonio Brown, and tight end Rob Gronkowski.

When the Bucs receiving corps is fully healthy, Bruce Arians’ squad barely even has to hand the ball off. Tampa has failed to net 95 rushing yards in seven of its past 10 games, despite its willing-and-able backfield of Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, and LeSean McCoy. This team, like so many Arians’ teams in the past, is all about the pass.

Brady has 4,633 passing yards, even more than he logged when he won the 2017 MVP. He also has 40 touchdowns, the most he has thrown since his historic 50-TD undefeated MVP season in 2007. He does have 12 interceptions on the season, but his sack percentage (3.3%) is lower than it’s been since 2009.

When focused, the Buccaneers have also had a strong defensive core. It forced multiple turnovers in each of its last two regular-season games, the eighth and ninth time it has done so this year. It has also held two of its last four opponents to under 175 passing yards, and allowed an average of 79 rushing yards over the past three weeks.

The ball-swarming linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David serve as the aggressive leaders of this unit. Carlton Davis and Jordan Whitehead have shown flashes of brilliance in Tampa’s young secondary. But the Bucs pass-rush has been the most pleasant surprise for d-coordinator Todd Bowles. Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, Shaquil Barrett and White have combined for 32.5 sacks and 65 QB hits. Look out, Alex Smith.

Tampa Bay has gone 9-7 against the spread this season. As a favorite, it has gone 7-6 ATS and 4-3 ATS as an away favorite. Over 56 percent of Buccaneers games have hit the OVER, and 62.5 percent of their away games have gone OVER.

Full Game Prediction

I like the Redskins to cover the +8, although I would personally buy a point or two. There’s little to no value on the Tampa moneyline at -425, but you simply cannot pick against Tom Brady the way he has been playing. He always delivers this time of year, and he will easily outduel the likes of Alex Smith. 

But Washington has the ability to keep things close, thanks to its pass-rush and a few play-makers who can break off chunk yardage in the blink of an eye. I like Tampa on the moneyline and against the spread in the first-half, and I’m leaning towards the OVER at the half and on the total. But I’ll go with Washington in a surprising cover. Give me the Buccaneers 27-20.