Green Bay Packers vsHouston Texans Prediction
The Green Bay Packers are a solid favorite with a 60% chance to beat the Houston Texans. Aaron Jones is projected for 72 rushing yards and a 53% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 40% of simulations where Houston Texans wins, Deshaun Watson averages 2.25 TD passes vs 0.35 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.79 TDs to 0.7 interceptions. David Johnson averages 79 rushing yards and 0.84 rushing TDs when Houston Texans wins and 49 yards and 0.36 TDs in losses. The Green Bay Packers has a 48% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 78% of the time.
Houston Texans Preview
After winning their first game under interim coach Romeo Crenel, the Texans got back to their losing ways last week, losing to the Titans in overtime. Houston was well-positioned to win the game, leading 36-29 in the final two minutes, only to allow a late touchdown and another touchdown in overtime. At 1-5, the season is all but over for the Texans, especially with two other teams in the AFC South looking like playoff contenders. Houston would more or less have to win out to make a playoff push, which seems unlikely with half of their 10 remaining games against teams with a winning record.
The silver lining of the last two weeks is that Deshaun Watson and the Houston offense seem to have found a groove. Watson has been sacked just three times in the last two games after taking 16 sacks in Houston’s first four games of the season. That has made all the difference for a team with a top-flight quarterback and plenty of talented skill players. Even with all of the sacks, the Texans are among the top-5 teams in the NFL in passing yards and look capable of scoring 30-plus points virtually every week. They just have to continue to do a better job of protecting Watson.
Of course, the Houston defense hasn’t shown any signs of improvement this season. Giving up 14 points to the Jaguars in a Week 5 win appears to be an aberration more so than a sign of things to come. The Texans have conceded at least 28 points in every other game this season. Last week, the Houston defense was shredded by Derrick Henry on the ground in what has become a common theme this season. The Texans have been dreadful against the run all season, and until that improves, Houston’s only chance will be to out-score teams in high-scoring shootouts.
Green Bay Packers Preview
The Packers went down to Tampa last week and were served a big slice of humble pie. The previously undefeated Packers took a quick 10-0 lead, only to watch things fall apart in a 38-10 loss. The good news is that it was Green Bay’s first setback of the season. However, it dropped the Packers half a game behind the Bears in the NFC North. It’s clear that Green Bay isn’t going to be able to coast to a division title, making it important that they get back on track quickly, even as they hit the road for a second straight week.
Until last week, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense had looked close to unstoppable. The Packers looked unprepared for Tampa’s pass rush and got little out of Aaron Jones, who had been having a career year. Of course, one bad game isn’t a reason for the Green Bay offense to panic. Rodgers has only taken seven sacks in five games and isn’t going to have too many two-interception games like he had last week. As long as they can get Jones going, the Green Bay offense should be back on track soon.
Meanwhile, there is less confidence in the Green Bay defense, especially after giving up 158 rushing yards to the Bucs last week. Despite being 4-1, the Packers have conceded at least 21 points in all but one game this season. They’ve only forced three turnovers in five games and don’t have much of a pass rush outside of Za’Darius Smith. The Green Bay defense has struggled against the run at times, and if Smith isn’t getting to the quarterback, the secondary can also be vulnerable, which has required the Packers scoring a lot of points to win games.
Full Game Prediction
Fans should get ready for a lot of points to be scored between the Packers and Texans this week. As 3.5-point road favorites, the expectation is that Green Bay will find a way to finish with more points. However, if the Green Bay pass rush can’t take advantage of a leaky Houston offensive line, Watson is more than capable of matching Rodgers in a shootout, especially since the Texans have better receiving threats.
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