Indianapolis Colts vs

Detroit Lions Prediction

Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions Prediction

Week 8 offers an interesting interconference matchup with the Indianapolis Colts traveling to Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions. This game will take place on Sunday, November 1st at 1 pm ET. Indianapolis is currently listed as a 2.5-point road favorite and the over/under is set at 50 total points. For more information on this game, please read our full Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts prediction below.

Detroit Lions Preview

Through 6 games of the 2020 season, the Detroit Lions have already matched their win total from last season. Last year’s 3-12-1 SU record put a lot of heat on Head Coach Matt Patricia to make some improvements this season. Detroit appears to be a different team in 2020, but there may be a clear reason for that. The Lions had a similar start in 2019, going 3-4-1 SU through 8 games. At that point, QB Matthew Stafford went down for the year with an injury. Once Stafford got hurt, the Lions failed to win another ball game. Now that he’s back, these look like the same Lions from the first half of last year. Detroit has a SU record of 3-3 and they’ve been competitive in every game with the exception of a 42-21 loss at Green Bay. The Lions have won 3 of their last 4 games, beating the Arizona Cardinals, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Atlanta Falcons. Last week’s win over Atlanta involved a 1:04, 8-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that secured a 23-22 edge. Detroit is also 3-3 against the spread and Overs are 3-3 in Detroit Lions games. On offense, the Lions rank middle-of-the-pack or below in most statistical categories. Detroit averages 26.0 points per game, which places them 15th in scoring offense. They gain 5.6 yards per play, ranking 22nd in the NFL. Detroit is 18th in net yards per pass attempt and 21st in yards per carry. The Lions place 26th in 3rd down conversion percentage, converting on just 38.2% of their 3rd down attempts. Detroit’s offense has done a tremendous job of taking care of the football. The Lions rank 3rd in offensive turnover percentage, giving the ball away on 6.3% of their offensive drives. Detroit ranks 20th in scoring defense, giving up 27.5 points per game. Matt Patricia’s defense is 19th in yards per play allowed, 18th in yards per rush allowed and 22nd in net yards per pass attempt allowed. They rank near the bottom of the league in terms of 3rd down defense, sack rate and pressure rate. Continue reading our Indianapolis Colts vs. Detroit Lions prediction for a preview of the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts Preview

The Indianapolis Colts look to be in a solid position in the AFC South coming off of a bye. Indianapolis has a 4-2 SU record and they are 1 game behind the division-leading Tennessee Titans. The Titans are coming off of their 1st loss of the season and the Colts are within striking distance of moving up the standings. In 2019, Indianapolis was dealing with the shocking preseason retirement of QB Andrew Luck. They recovered reasonably well, going 7-9 with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. However, they started off 5-2 and sputtered to a 2-7 finish. With a solid defense and a top 5 offensive line, all Indianapolis wanted to find was the right QB. They signed longtime Chargers QB Philip Rivers in the offseason and it looks like the move has paid off. Rivers was let go by a Chargers organization that wanted to look to the future, but Rivers was able to find a comfortable landing spot. Colts Head Coach Frank Reich was Philip Rivers’ offensive coordinator in San Diego for a time. With Rivers running Reich’s offense once more, the Colts look to be a real contender. Indy’s 4-2 SU record comes with single digit losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns. They have wins over the Vikings, Jets, Bears, and Bengals. It hasn’t been the toughest schedule for Indy, but they’ve looked good against the teams they have faced. The Colts are 3-3 against the spread and Overs are 3-3 against the total in Indianapolis’ 6 games. With Philip Rivers at the helm, the Colts have one of the most efficient passing attacks in the NFL. Indianapolis ranks 1st in net yards per pass attempt at 7.6 net yards/attempt. This is because Indy ranks 7th in yards per pass and 1st in sack yardage given up. Despite having a passing attack that produces yards at a high rate, Indy ranks just 12th in yards per play (5.9 ypp) and 14th in scoring offense (26.2 points per game). The Colts struggle in a few offensive areas, most notably in the running game. Indianapolis ranks last of the 32 teams in yards per rush, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. They place 23rd in 3rd down conversion percentage and 27th in red zone touchdown percentage. Indy’s rushing attack and poor performance in key situations prevents them from being one of the top offenses in the NFL. While Indianapolis’ offense looks to sharpen its weak spots, the defense has emerged as an elite force. The Colts defense ranks 2nd in yards per play allowed (4.8 ypp allowed) and 4th in scoring defense (19.2 points per game allowed). They are statistically well-rounded, giving up just 5.8 net yards per pass attempt (6th-best in the league) and 3.5 yards per rush attempt (4th-best in the league). The Colts also lead the NFL in interception percentage, getting picks on 5.2% of their opponents’ passes.

Full Game Prediction

For Detroit to win this game, they must continue to take care of the football. The Colts defense is full of ballhawks who are waiting for a chance to intercept passes. Colts Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus plays a bend-but-don’t-break zone scheme and allows opponents to make crucial errors. Matthew Stafford has a big arm and likes to fit the ball into tight windows, but he hasn’t made many mistakes this season. Their low turnover percentage allows for high point totals despite not getting elite production in terms of yardage efficiency. Detroit must also find a way to generate a pass rush. Indianapolis has one of the best offensive lines in the league and those linemen do a tremendous job of keeping Philip Rivers clean. It becomes difficult to stop Indy when Rivers has a lot of time to throw. For Indianapolis to win this game, the defense must play up to their usual standard. Detroit’s offense is close to league-average, so Indianapolis’ strong defense should have the edge in that matchup. Also, Frank Reich needs to call more pass plays. Their rushing game is among the worst in the league, their passing game is among the best, and yet they only pass the ball 55.91% of the time (21st in percentage of plays that are passes). I would encourage Indianapolis to be more pass-heavy and take advantage of the offensive strengths they have. Subscribe to BetQL to get our model’s Detroit vs. Indianapolis prediction and see all the data we have on this game.