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Indianapolis Colts vsChicago Bears Prediction

Expect a close game with the Indianapolis Colts winning 46% of simulations, and the Chicago Bears 54% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Indianapolis Colts commit fewer turnovers in 65% of simulations and they go on to win 60% when they take care of the ball. The Chicago Bears wins 81% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Jordan Wilkins is averaging 100 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (42% chance) then he helps his team win 65%. Nick Foles is averaging 288 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (34% chance) then he helps his team win 58%.

Chicago Bears Preview

Rather quietly, one of the most intriguing games on the Week 4 NFL schedule features the Indianapolis Colts facing the Chicago Bears. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, October 4, at Soldier Field in Chicago. Oddsmakers list the Colts as 2.5-point favorites on the road with an over/under of 43 points. Keep reading to get a preview of both teams and learn our Bears vs Colts prediction for this week.

The Bears are undoubtedly the most surprising 3-0 team in the NFL. Even if you’ve watched all of their games, you might be puzzled as to how they’ve managed to win all three of their games. Chicago has been able to execute two incredible comebacks sandwiched around a win over the lowly Giants. Of course, with all three wins coming by four points each, the jury is still out on the Bears.

You know there’s reason to be skeptical about a 3-0 team when they make a quarterback change. After throwing three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter last week to beat the Falcons, Nick Foles is officially Chicago’s starter. However, the Bears will lose some mobility at that position, as Mitch Trubisky was the team’s second-leading rusher. Backup running back Tarik Cohen will also miss the rest of the year with a torn ACL, so Chicago’s running game could be a concern moving forward.

Meanwhile, the Bears are waiting for their defense to reach the level it was at two years ago. We’ve seen signs of that, as the Bears were able to keep both the Lions and Falcons scoreless in the fourth quarter to allow their offense to come from behind. But the Chicago defense is not as powerful as advertised, as they’ve struggled to stuff the run against both the Lions and Falcons.

Indianapolis Colts Preview

The Colts began the season with a puzzling loss to the Jaguars, but they could not have been more impressive since then. Granted, Indy’s two wins have come against the Vikings and Jets, two teams that remain winless heading into Week 4. However, the Colts won those two games by a combined 46 points, so if nothing else, they’ve proven that they are head and shoulders above bad teams.

Despite playing three bad teams, the Indy offense has been somewhat average to this point. Philip Rivers has just three touchdown passes compared to three interceptions, although the Indianapolis offensive line has lived up to its reputation by only allowing two sacks. That being said, Jonathan Taylor hasn’t yet settled in as the feature back. The Colts are also missing a downfield passing game. T.Y. Hilton doesn’t look like an impact playmaker anymore while tight end Mo Alie-Cox has been Indy’s leading receiver thus far.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts have been outstanding during the last two weeks. But that is to be expected against the Vikings and Jets. Of course, regardless of the competition, the Colts statistically have the best defense in the NFL, allowing just 15 points per game. Even in their loss to Jacksonville, the Colts gave up less than 250 total yards, so early success against bad teams may not be a fluke.

Full Game Prediction

This game has all of the makings of a defensive slugfest. While the Bears haven’t been as dominant as the Indy defense, they should be strong enough to slow down a somewhat limited Indianapolis offense. Meanwhile, Foles figures to be X-factor in this game. He was great coming off the bench last week, but now he has to prove he can do it as the starter, especially with questions surrounding Chicago’s running game.

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