Chicago Bears
10-4
Carolina Panthers
7-7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Chicago Bears vsCarolina Panthers Prediction

Expect a close game with the Chicago Bears winning 52% of simulations, and the Carolina Panthers 47% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Chicago Bears commit fewer turnovers in 41% of simulations and they go on to win 78% when they take care of the ball. The Carolina Panthers wins 66% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. David Montgomery is averaging 91 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (38% chance) then he helps his team win 75%. Christian McCaffrey is averaging 104 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (43% chance) then he helps his team win 70%.

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers Prediction

Two weeks into the season, it looked like it might be a long year for Carolina. But Matt Rhule has turned things around quickly. The Panthers have won three in a row against the Chargers, Cardinals, and Falcons. For what it’s worth, those three teams are a combined 4-11 on the season, so Carolina has a lot to prove. However, they sit in a three-way tie atop the NFC South standings and have a manageable schedule ahead of them, playing four of their next six games at home between now and Thanksgiving.

The most amazing part of Carolina’s turnaround is that they’ve done it without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup. Nobody’s suggesting that the Panthers are better without McCaffrey. But Mike Davis has done a great job of filling in and giving Carolina a steady rushing attack. More importantly, Teddy Bridgewater has stepped up and been able to carry the Carolina offense with his arm. Bridgewater is completing 73% of his passes and averaging close to 300 yards per game. Moreover, he’s not been sacked in back-to-back games, giving him more time to look down the field for Robby Anderson and DJ Moore, who have become one of the more underrated wide receiver tandems in the league.

Defensively, Rhule has done an outstanding job of getting things turned around after a rough start. Again, the teams Carolina has beaten in the last three weeks are 4-11. However, the Panthers have allowed no more than 21 points in three straight games, which is a drastic improvement after conceding more than 30 points in each of their first two games. It’s not as if teams like the Cardinals and Falcons are void of talent on offense, so the Carolina defense keeping those teams contained should not be taken lightly and could be a sign of things to come.

Carolina Panthers Preview

Two weeks into the season, it looked like it might be a long year for Carolina. But Matt Rhule has turned things around quickly. The Panthers have won three in a row against the Chargers, Cardinals, and Falcons. For what it’s worth, those three teams are a combined 4-11 on the season, so Carolina has a lot to prove. However, they sit in a three-way tie atop the NFC South standings and have a manageable schedule ahead of them, playing four of their next six games at home between now and Thanksgiving.

The most amazing part of Carolina’s turnaround is that they’ve done it without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup. Nobody’s suggesting that the Panthers are better without McCaffrey. But Mike Davis has done a great job of filling in and giving Carolina a steady rushing attack. More importantly, Teddy Bridgewater has stepped up and been able to carry the Carolina offense with his arm. Bridgewater is completing 73% of his passes and averaging close to 300 yards per game. Moreover, he’s not been sacked in back-to-back games, giving him more time to look down the field for Robby Anderson and DJ Moore, who have become one of the more underrated wide receiver tandems in the league.

Defensively, Rhule has done an outstanding job of getting things turned around after a rough start. Again, the teams Carolina has beaten in the last three weeks are 4-11. However, the Panthers have allowed no more than 21 points in three straight games, which is a drastic improvement after conceding more than 30 points in each of their first two games. It’s not as if teams like the Cardinals and Falcons are void of talent on offense, so the Carolina defense keeping those teams contained should not be taken lightly and could be a sign of things to come.

Chicago Bears Preview

The Chicago Bears are beating a lot of expectations this season, and might be the most surprising 4-1 team in the NFL. It’s almost impossible to fathom how Chicago is doing it. At times, the Bears have looked dreadful during games, only to come alive in the fourth quarter and find a way to win. One has to think that getting out-played on a regular basis will eventually lead to some losses. But for now, the Bears keep finding ways to win, albeit against teams like the Lions, Giants, and Falcons, who all have losing records.

The switch to Nick Foles as the starting quarterback hasn’t exactly ignited the Chicago offense. He’s thrown an interception in all three games that he’s played and took three sacks last week against Tampa Bay. Foles is also averaging fewer yards per pass attempt than Mitch Trubisky, so he hasn’t given the Bears a downfield passing game. The Chicago rushing attack is also a little troubling, as David Montgomery has been held under 30 yards in back-to-back games. 

Of course, the Chicago defense is the biggest reason why the Bears have been able to get away with a lackluster offense that only seems to come alive late in games. Chicago is conceding just 20 points per game this year, giving them a top-5 defense. The Bears are coming close to replicating the kind of defense they had in 2018. Linebacker Roquan Smith has some experience under his belt and has become a better playmaker while Akiem Hicks is having a great season and anchoring the defensive line. With Chicago giving up 19 points each to the Colts and Bucs the last two weeks, the Bears appear to be rounding into form defensively.

Full Game Prediction

Something has to give in this game, as both the Panthers and Bears have found success by beating some of the worst teams in the NFL. This game could come down to whether or not Bridgewater can stay hot against the best defense he’s faced this season. The same applies to Davis and the Carolina rushing attack. It’s also worth noting that the Bears are 3-1 as underdogs while this is the first game that the Panthers have been favored in 2020. The BetQL best bet model is leaning towards the Bears +2.5 early in the week and it is hard to argue with that.

Brian Hunt
Prediction Written by
Brian Hunt

Schedule Summary
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