Miami Dolphins vs

Arizona Cardinals Prediction

Miami Dolphins vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction

The Miami Dolphins (4-3) travel to State Farm Stadium in Glendale to take on the Arizona Cardinals (5-2) at 4:25 p.m. on Sunday. It will be a battle of young, athletic quarterbacks, featuring Arizona’s 2019 Rookie of the Year and super sophomore Kyler Murray, and Miami’s southpaw slinger and 2020 No. 5 overall draft pick Tua Tagovailoa.

Both these young teams have impressed this season, with promising collective contributions on both sides of the ball. They have each won three consecutive games, and each sit in second place in their respective divisions. With a superior record and a slightly better points-per-game average, the Cardinals are the home favorites at -5 (-220 ML). The over/under has settled at 48.

Arizona Cardinals Preview

Many analysts expected 2019 Rookie of the Year Kyler Murray to take a step forward this year, and lead the Cardinals to playoff contention after a tough 5-10-1 debut season. Not many predicted that Arizona would equal its 2019 win total by Week 7 of the 2020 season, never mind lead the entire NFL in total yards (2,934, despite already having its bye).

Even when Murray has had issues with efficiency, he has been dynamic. With his elite playmaking and explosiveness out of the pocket always available at the drop of a hat, he affords himself Russell Wilson-like quarterbacking options. He can tuck and run for 35 yards, and then drop back and air the ball out to a receiver 50 yards downfield the next play. He not only has the Cards accumulating 419.1 total yards per game, he has them ranked 2nd in first downs (181), rushing yards (1,125), and rushing TDs (12).

Murray does whatever he needs to in order to get the win. He threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns, and ran for 67 yards and a score, in a huge 37-34 win over Seattle two weeks ago. He leads the entire league—regardless of position—in yards per rush with 6.7. He has topped 67 yards rushing in five different games, and scored at least one touchdown on the ground in all but one of Arizona’s seven games. Most importantly, he has only been sacked nine times (27th in the NFL). In 2019, he was taken down in the pocket 48 times (4th-most).

The biggest benefactor to Murray’s development has been perennial All-Pro receiver and 2019 offseason acquisition DeAndre Hopkins. The eight-year veteran leads the NFL in catches (57), receiving yards (704), and average receiving yards per game (100.6). He has caught 78.1 percent of the passes Murray has sent his way, and he’s sustaining career-best averages of 8.1 catches per game and 9.6 yards per target. Hopkins’ dominant presence has opened up room for third-year receiver Christian Kirk, who has enjoyed a bounce-back season of sorts with career-highs in TDs (five) and average yards per catch (15.4).

The Cardinals’ offensive line has improved, but not by leaps and bounds. In his first seven games this season, starting running back Kenyan Drake had trouble duplicating the success he enjoyed after Arizona acquired him via trade in 2019. His yards per carry average dropped by nearly a yard from 5.2 to 4.3, and his average rushing yards per game dropped from 80.4 to 73.1. Even more alarmingly, Drake’s role in the receiving game plummeted. He went from 21.4 receiving yards per game and 4.9 yards per target last year to 4.9 receiving yards per game and 2.9 yards per target this season.

Then Drake tore a ligament in his ankle in Week 7 against Seattle, and an opportunity was born for backup Chase Edmonds. Could this be a blessing in disguise? The third-year back out of Fordham averages 6.1 yards per carry, 8.5 yards per reception, and he’s caught 81.3 percent of his targets. Edmonds will be busy against a Miami defense that allows 125.1 rushing yards per game (21st in the NFL) and a 52.9 percent rushing touchdown percentage (31st).

The Cardinals defense has been one of the more underrated units in the NFL this season. Eight-time Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Peterson and elite two-time Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker lead a secondary that has the ability to stifle passing attacks. Linebackers Jordan Hicks and De’Vondre Campbell gobble up the run game, combining for 79 solo tackles between the two of them. Baker, Hicks, and Campbell have each reached 57 combined tackles through seven games. Then there’s Hassan Reddick, the outside linebacker who comes in and wreaks havoc on opposing QBs. The 26-year old has five sacks and nine QB hits thus far, filling in well for pass-rusher Chandler Jones since his season-ending biceps surgery.

Arizona was holding opponents to a superb 18.6 points before giving up 34 to Seattle in its Week 7 shootout win. The Cards still rank first in the NFL in opposing rushing touchdowns (four all year), and they rank ninth in points allowed (146), average points allowed per drive (1.97), and opposing third-down conversions per game (4.6). They will be licking their chops at the opportunity to jump into the top-ten in the league in takeaways—they currently have 10, good for 11th in the league despite the bye week.

Miami Dolphins Preview

Like Arizona, Miami only totaled five wins last season. They drafted Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa at pick No. 5 in the 2020 Draft, but made it abundantly clear he would not start the season due to injuries and readiness. Then the Dolphins surprised the nation out of the gate, with a 3-3 record under veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. Even more surprisingly, they announced they would replace Fitzpatrick with Tagovailoa following their Week 7 bye. Fitzpatrick had just led the ‘Phins past the 49ers 43-17 and shut out the Jets 24-0. He was heartbroken, but the decision had been made.

Tagovailoa’s first start was shaky, to say the least, but his defense carried him to a debut victory 28-17. Talk about a bailout—the rookie completed just 12 of his 22 pass attempts for 93 yards and one touchdown. He did not gain a yard on the ground. Worse yet, the Dolphins’ leading receiver on the day, tied for a team-high 16 receiving yards and leading Miami with three catches, was running back Miles Gaskin. It was announced early this week that Gaskin would be placed on IR with a sprained MCL.

Hopefully for the rookie, he will be a little more confident in the pocket this week and will target wide-outs Devante Parker and Preston Williams more often. Parker, who had 29 catches on 40 targets for 364 yards and two touchdowns entering last week’s game, only got two looks. One of those was a three-yard touchdown. Williams had 213 receiving yards, a 17.75 yards per catch average, and three TDs, but he only caught 2-of-5 targets for 15 yards last Sunday.

With Gaskin out, and Tagovailoa clearly not ready to dazzle the world like he did with the Crimson Tide during his college years, Miami’s D will have to once again shine. The Dolphins lead the NFL in points allowed (130), they rank second in takeaways (13), and they have only allowed eight passing touchdowns in seven games (fifth-best). The one game in which Miami never stood a shot was against Seattle in Week 4—they allowed Wilson to throw two TDs, and Chris Carson to run for another two, and lost 31-23. Arizona got the best of Seattle in Week 7, so take that for whatever you will.

Full Game Prediction

BetQL’s Best Bet Model has a three-star rating on the Cardinals moneyline -220. Since becoming Arizona’s head coach, Kliff Kingsbury is 6-1 against teams that allow at least 375 yards per game, and Miami allows exactly 376. Our Model projects an implied final score of 26.5-21.5, but puts just one-star confidence on the Dolphins covering. Murray and the Cardinals are just too hot, and have far too many weapons, for the rookie Tagovailoa to win a shootout in Arizona. Take the Cardinals on the moneyline before that payout gets worse, and bet them on the spread as long as it doesn’t extend to -7. Don’t bet based on the standings on this one, bet on the better overall team beating a rookie QB without his top running back.