Wimbledon 2022: Best Bets, Fades & Sleepers

Wimbledon is here and BetQL’s Tennis Model features Women’s and Men’s best bets for every single match. Below, you’ll see picks to win, players to fade and sleepers to consider.

Women’s Pick: Angelique Kerber

Kerber knows what it takes to win this event, having done so in 2018, and her game is best suited for grass surfaces. She’s one of the five players in the field with three or more grass court titles to her name, one of the five Wimbledon winners in the draw and one of four players who have won 100 or more main draw matches at majors, per WTATennis.com. Sure, she’s on the tail end of her career at 34 years old, but with +3800 odds to win at FanDuel and +550 odds to win Quarter 3, I absolutely love the value.

Women’s Fade: Iga Swiatek 

Swiatek is the biggest story in the tennis world right now, having won 35 consecutive matches. However, she’s only played Wimbledon twice and has never advanced past the fourth round. Nevertheless, DraftKings is giving her +150 odds to win the tournament (a massive favorite vs. the field) while FanDuel is giving her +120 odds to reach the Final. FanDuel is even allowing you to get -160 odds on anyone other than Swiatek and Cori Gauff to win!

Women’s Sleeper: Beatriz Haddad Maia

Haddad Maia has gone 36-13 as a singles player this season, has won 20 of her last 22 matches and has earned back-to-back titles in Nottingham and Birmingham (both on grass). She recently also won 12 matches in a row and is an elite grass player. Could this be the event where she breaks through and wins a slam? BetMGM is giving her +450 odds to win Quarter 4 and +2200 odds to win the tournament, both of which have considerable value. Like Kerber, the Brazilian is a lefty, which is a differentiating factor that I also look for.

Men’s Pick: Matteo Berrettini 

Sure, Novak Djokovic is the clear favorite as he should be due to the fact that he’s won this event three consecutive times. Yes, Rafael Nadal is seeking his third major title of the season. However, Berrettini has won his last two tournaments on grass surfaces (Stuttgart and The Queen’s Club), is in fantastic form and made the final here in 2021. I absolutely love his draw as well; he’s a -110 favorite to come out of Quarter 3 per DraftKings, far ahead of Stefanos Tsitsipas (+500), Nick Kyrgios (+500), Denis Shapovalov (+1200) and Alex De Minaur (+1200). Berrettini’s game is suited beautifully for grass and you can get him at +130 to win Quarter 3 at BetMGM, +200 to make the Final at DraftKings and +550 to win the tournament at BetMGM. 

Men’s Fade: Stefanos Tsitsipas

As mentioned above, Tsitsipas is in Berrettini’s quarter of the draw and I simply don’t trust him. Despite the fact that he’s the fourth seed in this event, his last win at Wimbledon came all the way back in 2018 and a potential third-round matchup with Kyrgios is very scary. A couple weeks ago, the Greek youngster became the first Top 5 player since 2016 to lose to Andy Murray. Despite this, DraftKings is giving him +1100 odds to make the Final, the 7th-shortest. No thanks, I’ll look elsewhere.

Men’s Sleeper: Tim van Rijthoven

Five matches on grass. Five wins. That’s van Rijthoven’s record this year after he took down Danill Medvedev, Taylor Fritz and Felix Auger-Aliassime en route to his title at the 2022 Libema Open in the Netherlands a couple weeks ago. He’s a hot name circulating the tennis world right now, and he’s a clear Quarter 1 sleeper (+2500) with Djokovic (-360), Carlos Alcaraz (+400), Murray (+1100) and Jannik Sinner (+2500) all given shorter odds to come out of that part of the draw via DraftKings. You can grab +3800 odds on him to win Quarter 1 on FanDuel and +22000 odds on him to win the tournament there as well if you want to go way off the board.