UFC Odds, Picks, Predictions For This Weekend's Fight Card

UFC 300 Odds, Picks, Predictions

It’s not very often the UFC throws an event as almighty as UFC 300.

UFC 100 and UFC 200 were both milestone events, and now in a whole new decade UFC 300 is finally set to go down this weekend in Las Vegas. The hype is unreal and this event is going to be the most bet-on sports night since the Super Bowl. Twelve current/former UFC champions are on the card and from the very first prelim all the way through to the main event, each and every fight is good enough to potentially headline a UFC individually. 

Max Holloway, Justin Gaethje, Jamahal Hill, Alex Pereira, Charles Oliveira, Holly Holm, & Bo Nickal are only some of the stars fighting on UFC 300. This card really is a sports bettor’s dream and has so many great fights/lines to make money on. Given that there won’t be another event like this until UFC 400, which is at least 10 years away, UFC 300 is a MUST-bet card. Because it is such a momentous occasion, every single fight on the entire UFC 300 main card will be listed below with a prediction and bet! For a very special event, let’s talk BEST BETS for UFC 300 on ESPN+ & PPV!

Note: odds as of April 12 on BetMGM

Alex Pereira (9-2) vs. Jamahal Hill (12-1) 

Pereira (-135) vs. Hill (+110), 12 a.m. ET 

Alex Pereira has done more than enough to prove himself in the UFC. He has KO’d Israel Adesanya, survived grappling attacks from Jiri Prochazka, and has become the champion of two different weight classes.

Jamahal Hill is coming off of a brutal shoulder injury and hasn’t fought for over a year. Pereira is as active as ever, continuously improving from getting world champion caliber experience fight after fight. The technical striking & patience of Pereira is going to win him this fight against a wild Jamahal Hill, who will have to overcome some ring rust.

As close as the odds are, there’s no reason to get risky with a prop play. Despite a likely KO, the Pereira moneyline will do just fine.

BEST BET: Alex Pereira ML @ -135

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Weili Zhang (24-3) vs. Yan Xiaonan (18-3) 

Zhang (-550) vs. Xiaonan (+380), 11:30 p.m. 

As likely as Weili Zhang is to win this fight, the odds are absolutely too wide and Yan Xiaonan has no business being a 4-1 underdog. Weili is the better all-around fighter, especially if this fight enters a grappling exchange. But Yan is a very skilled striker and has upset world-class talent on the feet before.

Given that every fight starts standing and that the skill gap on the feet isn’t very wide, the smartest bet here is to play the value in Yan Xiaonan’s moneyline as much as I don’t expect her to win. Tread with caution here.

BEST BET: Yan Xiaonan ML @ +380

Justin Gaethje (25-4) vs. Max Holloway (25-7) 

Gaethje (-165) vs. Holloway (+135), 11 p.m. 

The battle of the BMFs! Max Holloway is going up a weight class here to take on the extremely damaging Justin Gaethje. Max is extremely durable, but we have seen him struggle going up to LW before against Poirier, and Gaethje is really just an improved Poirier.

I expect Max to take a lot of damage and wane as the fight goes on. Gaethje is simply too strong, too big, and too powerful for Max to be able to implement his technical boxing for an extended period of time during this fight. 

BEST BET: Justin Gaethje ML @ -165

Arman Tsarukyan (21-3) vs. Charles Oliveira (34-9-1) 

Tsarukyan (-200) vs. Oliveira (+165), 10:30 p.m. ET 

Arman Tsarukyan might be the best LW in the world, rivaled only by Islam Makhachev. Charles Oliveira is certainly very talented, but Arman is just too young and hungry for Charles.

This is the exact type of matchup Charles typically wilts in. Arman is going to come forward with so much pressure on the feet, nullifying Charles’s BJJ attacks at the same time, forcing Charles to gas and succumb to the pressure.

Anytime Charles has his grappling game stifled and is pressured on the feet, he folds early and unfortunately it is going to be more of the same here against the dangerous Tsarukyan. It is likely Charles gets dropped, accepting bottom guard leading to a ground-and-pound finish by Arman.

BEST BET: Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO/DQ

Bo Nickal (5-0) vs. Cody Brundage (10-5) 

Nickal (-2500) vs. Brundage (+1100), 10 p.m. 

Bo Nickal is once again gifted an easy matchup, this time on the main card of the biggest UFC event of all time. This fight is 100% tailormade to raise Bo’s stock, and he is going to do so in impressive fashion.

Cody Brundage is officially the biggest underdog in UFC history and for good reason. Brundage is a sloppy wrestler at best with an awful chin. Anyone who goes against Bo is so concerned with his elite wrestling that they hyper-fixate on the takedown, forgetting about his hands. Bo is going to find a very fast and very easy KO punch on Brundage here. His wrestling won’t even come into play.

BEST BET: Bo Nickal by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1

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