NASCAR Pick Sheet: Verizon 200 at the Brickyard

Momentum is a frequent topic of the Pick Sheet. It is an intangible, but unlike the motivation that comes with being winless like Denny Hamlin, wanting to leave a current team on a high note like Brad Keselowski, or job hunting like Matt DiBenedetto – momentum can be quantified.

This week, it is more important than ever with back-to-back road courses on the schedule and the fifth such race in the last 10 race weekends. The Verizon 200 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway is one of the new tracks on the 2021 schedule and as a result practice and qualification will be held. This means place-differential in the DraftKings game will be based on how drivers actually qualify and betting lines are subject to change after practice.

We are still trying to determine exactly where the new road courses fit into our formula. So far it would appear that the traditional tracks of Sonoma Raceway and Watkins Glen International have more in common with one another than the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) or Road America.

As we narrow down our focus, those COTA and Road America are front-of-mind, but at their core road courses each reward the same things: braking early as one enters the corners, accelerating at the apex, and creating a neutral setup that works in both left- and right-handed corners. For drivers who excel at this, it doesn’t matter if they are on a superspeedway like the Glen or a technical course like Road America.

Chase Elliott *****

$11,000 DraftKings | +200

We knew that Elliott was better than his competition on road courses, but until last week we didn’t know just how much better he was. Forced to the back of the pack after his team was caught coloring outside the lines, he made his way to the front only to flat spot his tires and get dropped to the back again. Without the benefit of cautions, he almost ran down the leader, but by virtue of finishing second, he now has eight top-two finishes in his last nine starts. Unless the team beats themselves again, Elliott will challenge for the win.

Kyle Larson ****

$10,800 DraftKings | +350

Last week, we handicapped Larson among the top five but did not anticipate him being quite as strong as he was. The reason for that was a relatively moderate run at Road America where he was top-five capable, but never really threatened for the victory. After his Watkins Glen performance, we are convinced his road course talent is almost on par with Elliott’s. The win for the Verizon 200 should come down to track position following the final pit stop. 

Christopher Bell **

$9,200 DraftKings | +1800

As we noted in the introduction, some intangibles are easier to place a number to than others. Never discount the motivation behind anger, however. By all appearances last week’s contact between Larson and Bell was “just one of those racin’ deals”, but Bell seems to have taken it personally. It robbed him of track position and what might have turned into a top-three finish. It’s unclear if he has the skill or car to keep up with the Hendrick mates, but he certainly has the motivation.

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Kyle Busch ***

$10,200 DraftKings | +900

Busch deserves more respect than 9/1 odds. Early in the season, we were a little uncertain how he would run after his 35th-place finish on the Daytona International Speedway Road Course. That was his fourth consecutive 30-something finish on a road course and it appeared the tide had turned. After winning the Xfinity race at COTA, he had one of the dominant cars in the Cup race until a mistimed pit stop relegated him to 10th. Since then, he has swept the top five on this track type. It will take only a little improvement to challenge for the win.

Joey Logano ****

$9,600 DraftKings | +2500

Logano is an example of why handicapping NASCAR can be so difficult. We profiled him fourth last week and his 22nd-place result suggests we were wrong. But drivers are not racing around the track by themselves and when he was run into by Keselowski in the middle stage of the Watkins Glen race, it damaged his right rear wheel. Simply staying on the lead lap was a feat. Now, he has a chance to restart a road course, top-five streak that ended with four consecutive and a fourth-place result at Sonoma. At 25/1, he’s worth a wager for the outright win and you should cover that with one for a top-three (+800) and top-five (+400).

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AJ Allmendinger ***

$8,800 DraftKings | +2200

Allmendinger is back in the field this week and highly motivated after a disappointing effort at Road America. His seventh-place finish on the Daytona road course and fifth at COTA underscores just how strong he is on the twisty tracks, however, and we struggled with whether to place him among the top five or just outside that mark. Ultimately the inexperience of his team versus that of Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, or Team Penske will shuffle him back a little, but with +350 odds for a top-five, bettors may still find some action.

Denny Hamlin ***

$10,000 DraftKings | +1200

Hamlin quietly earned a top-five last week. Unfortunately, Larson was much better in the Go Bowling at the Glen and closed the gap on him in the points’ standings. That might not seem like much in the big scheme of things, but being the regular season champion was about the only accomplishment for which Hamlin could be proud. He and Larson are tied in poitns at the moment and unless something happens to the No. 5 at Daytona, Larson will almost certainly have sole possession of the top spot in three weeks. For pride’s sake, Hamlin needs a win now more than ever.

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Martin Truex, Jr. ***

$10,400 DraftKings | +600

Last week, our top three finished in the top three. Truex was handicapped third despite what appears to be a softening of his road course results and only one top-five in five previous races. It was his third at Sonoma that elevated him up the charts, but it seems that he is a driver who needs laps around the track in order to find his rhythm. He will get some this week with practice and qualification, but that did not help him as much as it should have at COTA.

Austin Cindric **

$9,400 DraftKings | +2000

Cindric’s star rating is largely based on his raw finishes of 25th and 38th in the Cup series, but he ran much better at COTA and Road America than it would seem. He does not yet have a top-10 on a road course. Heck, he doesn’t even have a top-20, but relatively short odds of 20/1 for a part time driver without much Cup experience shows just how much respect the oddsmakers are giving him. That is because of his strength in the Xfinity Series on road courses and it is worth your attention.

Chase Briscoe ***

$7,900 DraftKings | +3500

There are actually three or four drivers we might have highlighted in the final slot this week. Tyler Reddick, Matt DiBenedetto, and Ross Chastain finished between 10th and 12th last week at Watkins Glen, which was a continuation of strength they’ve shown on road courses all year. Briscoe gets the nod this week because of his ninth-place finish in the Go Bowling at the Glen. All of these drivers have positive top-10 odds and our best guess is that at least one of them will score a single-digit result.