F1 Pick Sheet: 2022 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Predictions

F1 Pick Sheet: 2022 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Predictions

• This is the 14th running of the Abu Dhabi GP, which debuted in 2009.
• Active winners: [5] Lewis Hamilton (2019, 2018, 2016, 2014, 2011); [2] Max Verstappen (2021, 2020); [2] Sebastian Vettel (2010, 2009); [1] Valtteri Bottas (2017).
• Last week, George Russell earned his first Formula 1 victory in his 82nd start with a line of +1300, which was the first win for Mercedes in 2022. 
• Sergio Perez and Charles Leclerc are tied for second in the points entering the season finale as Red Bull Racing seeks their first 1-2 finish in the standings.

The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix marks the 22nd and final race of 2022 with George Russell becoming the fifth different winner of the season last week in Brazil. Winning from the pole, that was the 14th time this year that the front row was victorious and it was the fifth consecutive time that happened. 

Russell’s win snapped a three-race winning streak for Max Verstappen (+115 at PointsBet) on a track that has been kind to the Red Bull racer throughout his career. Verstappen is the two-time defending winner of the Abu Dhabi GP and has not finished worse than fifth in his last six starts on that track. Verstappen finished sixth last week in Brazil, which is part of the reason he shows plus odds for the first time in several rounds.

Controversy surrounded last week’s Brazilian GP when Verstappen held up his teammate Sergio Perez to drain time from Lewis Hamilton (+270) and cost the seven-time champion a shot at victory. The tactic worked as Hamilton finished 1.5 seconds behind Russell and now has only one race to keep from going winless for the first time in his 16-year career. Four of Hamilton’s five wins in the Abu Dhabi GP came during a streak of eight consecutive podium finishes.

Russell’s (+400) win last week in Brazil got the attention of the sportsbook traders, who dropped his odds from 13/1 in Brazil to 4/1 this week. The win was this ninth time in the past 11 races this season that Russell scored a top-five finish, but Abu Dhabi has not been a good track for him. In three starts there, his best finish was 15th in 2020 when he was with Williams Racing.

Perez (+850) remains locked in a battle with Charles Leclerc for second in the points’ standings. The two drivers enter the final race of the season tied in points, so Verstappen’s antics exacted a heavy cost on his teammate. Perez earned five fewer points in Brazil than Leclerc so the pressure remains if he wants to give Red Bull Racing their first ever 1-2 finish in the standings. Perez finished 15th in Abu Dhabi last year and has only one top-five in 11 starts there.

Leclerc (+850) was 10th in this race last year with a career-best of third in 2019. His most recent of two victories this season came 11 races ago in Austria and with the sole exception of the next week in France, he has finished sixth or better since. In that span of 11 races, however, he holds only a slight advantage in terms of average finish with a 5.0 to Perez’s 5.4. It pays to shop around because Leclerc is listed as low as +400 at BetMGM and as high as +1200 at Caesars.

No other driver is listed below 25/1 on PointsBet. 

BetMGM expects the race to be a runaway affair with odds of -165 that the winning margin will be six seconds or greater. Breaking that down further, a margin of six seconds to 10.999 seconds is posted at +350, 11-15.999 is +550, 16-20.999 is also +550, while 21-24.999 is listed at +1200.