Copa America 2024 Simulation Data & Best Bets

2024 Copa America Betting

The Copa América is a prestigious South American tournament that brings together the continent's finest national teams. Traditionally featuring the 10 nations of the CONMEBOL federation, the Copa América has occasionally welcomed guest teams, adding an extra layer of excitement and unpredictability to the competition. In recent years, the tournament has expanded its horizons, inviting nations from the CONCACAF region. This year, the tournament will see six CONCACAF nations join the fray, making it a 16-team spectacle that serves as a thrilling prelude to the 2026 World Cup, set to be hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

This year's Copa América promises to be an exhilarating showcase of football prowess, with defending champions Argentina leading the charge. The Albiceleste, fresh off their World Cup triumph, are the favorites to clinch the title once again. However, the competition is fierce, with traditional powerhouses like Brazil and emerging contenders such as Colombia and Uruguay ready to challenge the status quo. The tournament's format ensures that every game is crucial, and the addition of North and Central American teams injects new dynamics into the mix.

In Group A, Argentina is expected to dominate, with Lionel Messi possibly making his final international appearance. Group B sees Mexico, despite recent struggles, poised to capitalize on home-field advantage against Ecuador, Venezuela, and Jamaica. Group C offers an intriguing matchup between the United States and Uruguay, while Group D features Brazil and Colombia as the favorites in a competitive lineup that includes Paraguay and Costa Rica.

The BetQL simulation for the Copa America 2024 tournament, conducted 10,000 times for each match played, has produced intriguing insights into the likely outcomes for each group. Below, we present the simulation data for every team, revealing where the value lies for bettors and football enthusiasts alike.

GROUP STAGES | QUARTERFINALS | SEMIFINALS | BEST BETS

Group A: Argentina, Peru, Chile, Canada

Argentina

• Win Group: 60.5%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 84.8%
• Average Points: 6.1
• Betting Odds To Win Group: -400 (Value: -19.5%)

Argentina enters the 2024 Copa América as the undisputed favorites, driven by the presence of Lionel Messi and their recent triumphs in major tournaments. Despite occasional setbacks, such as a recent loss to Uruguay, Argentina's form remains formidable, underscored by convincing victories in friendlies against El Salvador, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Guatemala. With Messi orchestrating the attack alongside strikers like Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez, Argentina boasts an exceptional blend of offensive prowess and defensive solidity, anchored by defenders Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez. Manager Lionel Scaloni has multiple midfield options to adapt to any opponent, including Leandro Paredes, Rodrigo De Paul, and the emerging talents of Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernández. With goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez's penalty-saving abilities adding to their strengths, Argentina's path to defending their Copa América title looks promising, especially with a favorable group stage draw that avoids top-ranked opponents.

Chile

• Win Group: 18.1%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 47.5%
• Average Points: 3.9
• Betting Odds To Win Group: +600 (Value: 3.8%)

Chile heads into the 2024 Copa América with a transitioning squad that bids farewell to its golden generation, including stalwarts like Alexis Sanchez, Mauricio Isla, Eduardo Vargas, and Claudio Bravo, who are all nearing the end of their international careers. Despite their aging core, Chile remains competitive, as shown by their recent results, including a commendable 3-2 loss to France and a convincing 3-0 victory over Paraguay. The team's performance against a top-tier opponent like France underscores their resilience and ability to challenge formidable countries. While questions persist about maintaining past standards, Chile's upcoming generation aims to prove themselves, with their opening match against Argentina at Metlife Stadium offering a chance to recapture past glories.

Peru

• Win Group: 14.6%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 42.1%
• Average Points: 3.5
• Betting Odds To Win Group: +550 (Value: 5.5%)

Peru enters the 2024 Copa América amidst a challenging phase, marked by recent struggles in World Cup qualifying despite their strong Copa America performances, having reached at least the semifinals in four of the last five tournaments. Their World Cup qualifying campaign started with four goalless matches and just one point, albeit against formidable opponents like Argentina and Brazil. A disappointing loss to Bolivia further complicated their path, although a draw with Venezuela provided some respite. Recent victories over Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic, alongside a draw with Paraguay and a win over El Salvador, have offered Peru a boost in momentum heading into the Copa América. Despite being drawn into a tough group with Argentina, Chile, and Canada, Peru's historical prowess in the tournament suggests they could still contend for a knockout spot, though their journey remains fraught with challenges.

Canada

• Win Group: 6.9%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 25.7%
• Average Points: 2.8
• Betting Odds To Win Group: +700 (Value: -0.8%)

Canada enters the 2024 Copa América amidst a rebuilding phase following their encouraging 2022 World Cup campaign. Despite finishing atop CONCACAF's World Cup qualifying last cycle, they needed a playoff to secure their place in the Copa América, where they eventually overcame Trinidad & Tobago with a 2-0 victory in March. The appointment of Jesse Marsch as head coach reflects Canada's ambition to strengthen their squad ahead of hosting duties in the 2026 World Cup. Key players like Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David will be pivotal as Canada navigates a challenging group that includes Argentina, Chile, and Peru. While their path to the knockout stage appears daunting, Canada's aspirations for tournament success remain buoyed by their emerging talents and strategic planning under Marsch's leadership.

Summary

Argentina stands out as the dominant force in Group A, with a strong chance of winning the group and advancing deep into the tournament. Despite these impressive statistics, the betting odds for Argentina to win the group are -400, which translates to a negative value of -19.5%. Chile follows as the second strongest contender, with a significant chance of advancing. Peru and Canada lag behind but still have fighting chances to make it to the quarterfinals.

Group B: Mexico, Ecuador, Venezuela, Jamaica

Ecuador

• Win Group: 40.9%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 75.9%
• Average Points: 5.7
• Betting Odds To Win Group: +160 (Value: 2.4%)

Ecuador enters the 2024 Copa América with a blend of promise and uncertainty after a strong start to World Cup qualifying. Moises Caicedo, notably, adds star power to the team as they aim to build on recent successes. La Tri have demonstrated their potential with victories over Uruguay, Bolivia, and Chile, along with draws against Colombia and Venezuela. Despite a solid qualifying campaign, Ecuador faced setbacks in friendlies against powerhouses Argentina and Italy, highlighting areas for improvement. With recent quarterfinal appearances in two of the last three Copa América tournaments, Ecuador aims to advance further this year. Their group stage performance will be crucial as they seek to avoid tough matchups in the knockout rounds and capitalize on their current form to make a deep tournament run.

Mexico

• Win Group: 38.9%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 73.6%
• Average Points: 5.6
• Betting Odds To Win Group: +110 (Value: -8.7%)

Mexico heads into the 2024 Copa América amidst a rebuilding phase following disappointing results in recent tournaments. After exiting the Qatar World Cup in the group stage and suffering a 2-0 loss to the USMNT in the Nations League final, El Tri are searching for stability under new leadership. Despite talent like Edson Alvarez and Santi Gimenez, key absences including Chucky Lozano and Memo Ochoa pose challenges. The Gold Cup triumph offers a glimmer of hope, but Mexico faces tough odds in a competitive group featuring Venezuela, Ecuador, and Jamaica. With expectations high yet realities sobering, this iteration of El Tri may struggle to make a significant impact on the tournament stage.

Venezuela

• Win Group: 20.2%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 49.7%
• Average Points: 4.6
• Betting Odds To Win Group: +550 (Value: 4.8%)

Venezuela enters the 2024 Copa América with a renewed sense of competitiveness after solid performances in the 2026 qualifying cycle. Despite historically being considered underdogs in CONMEBOL, La Vinotinto have shown resilience with recent wins over Paraguay and Chile, coupled with a hard-earned draw against Brazil. Led by experienced players like Salomon Rondon, Darwin Machis, and Tomas Rincon, alongside rising stars Yangel Herrera and Yeferson Soteldo, Venezuela possesses a balanced squad capable of making an impact. Their group featuring Mexico, Ecuador, and Jamaica offers a manageable path, with topping the group seen as crucial to avoid tougher opponents in the knockout stages.

Jamaica

• Win Group: 0.0%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 0.8%
• Average Points: 0.8
• Betting Odds To Win Group: +900 (Value: -10.0%)

Jamaica enters the 2024 Copa América with momentum from their dramatic qualification, overcoming Canada in the CONCACAF Nations League with a thrilling away goals victory. Led by familiar stars like Demarai Gray, Bobby Decordova-Reid, and Michail Antonio, the Reggae Boyz face a challenge both on and off the field, with Leon Bailey opting out of the tournament. Drawn in a group with Mexico, Ecuador, and Venezuela, Jamaica's fortunes will hinge on their ability to perform at their best against formidable opposition, aiming to secure enough points for advancement to the knockout stages.

Summary

Group B presents a more competitive scenario, with Ecuador leading slightly ahead of Mexico. Both teams are expected to advance, with Ecuador having a 40.9% chance of winning the group. Mexico's betting odds result in a negative value despite their strong probabilities. Venezuela has a fair chance of advancing, while Jamaica is seen as the underdog with minimal chances of progressing.

Group C: United States, Uruguay, Panama, Bolivia

USA

• Win Group: 48.2%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 84.5%
• Average Points: 5.9
• Betting Odds To Win Group: +140 (Value: 6.5%)

The United States heads into the 2024 Copa América with ambitions to elevate their status on the global stage, led by a burgeoning squad of young talents. Following a promising World Cup campaign where they advanced from the group stage but fell to the Netherlands in the Round of 16, the USMNT aims to showcase further progression. Winning the CONCACAF Nations League was a significant achievement, yet this tournament represents an opportunity to surpass previous milestones. Despite a humbling 5-1 defeat to Colombia, a resilient 1-1 draw against Brazil demonstrated their ability to compete at the highest level. With Uruguay looming in the group stage finale and a potential clash against Colombia or Brazil in the quarterfinals, the United States faces a rigorous path to prove their growth and challenge the tournament's elite.

Uruguay

• Win Group: 45.7%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 85.4%
• Average Points: 5.8
• Betting Odds To Win Group: -135 (Value: -11.7%)

Uruguay enters the 2024 Copa América with a renewed sense of optimism, showcasing a blend of experienced veterans and emerging talents poised to make an impact. Despite setbacks like a peculiar draw with the Basque national team and a loss to the Ivory Coast, Uruguay remains formidable in CONMEBOL qualifying, trailing only Argentina in points. Darwin Nunez has emerged as a key figure, scoring crucial goals against Argentina and Bolivia, while younger talents like Manuel Ugarte and Facundo Pellistri are on the rise. With stalwarts Federico Valverde and Ronald Araujo anchoring the team and the tactical prowess of manager Marcelo Bielsa, Uruguay looks well-equipped to navigate challenges from teams like the USMNT and potential clashes against Colombia or Brazil.

Bolivia

• Win Group: 3.4%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 17.1%
• Average Points: 3.0
• Betting Odds To Win Group: +750 (Value: -1.8%)

Bolivia enters the 2024 Copa América facing significant challenges, as their recent form and historical record in the tournament suggest. They have struggled in both recent Copa campaigns and early World Cup qualifying matches, winning only one game since 1997 in the Copa América. Despite a surprising victory over Peru in World Cup qualifying, losses to competitive teams like Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico in preparation for the Copa have dampened expectations. Matched with tough opponents such as Uruguay, Panama, and the USMNT in their group, Bolivia faces an uphill battle to advance in the tournament.

Panama

• Win Group: 2.6%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 13.0%
• Average Points: 2.6
• Betting Odds To Win Group: +800 (Value: -3.3%)

Panama enters the 2024 Copa América with optimism tempered by recent challenges. Following a strong 2023, highlighted by reaching the Gold Cup final and defeating the USMNT, albeit against a reserve-heavy squad, Panama's momentum faltered. They suffered a 3-0 defeat to Mexico in the CONCACAF Nations League final and a 1-0 loss to Jamaica in the third-place match. Despite securing their Copa América spot with wins over Costa Rica, their preparation was further marred by a 1-0 loss to Paraguay in their sole pre-tournament friendly. With limited experience in the Copa América, having only participated in the 2016 Centenario, Panama faces a daunting task navigating a tough group that includes Uruguay, Bolivia, and the USMNT.

Summary

The United States and Uruguay are expected to battle for the top spot in Group C. The USA has a slightly higher chance of winning the group, providing a positive betting value. Uruguay, while strong, has a negative value due to their odds. Bolivia and Panama have much lower probabilities, making them long shots for advancement.

Group D: Brazil, Colombia, Paraguay, Costa Rica

Brazil

• Win Group: 71.9%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 91.3%
• Average Points: 6.6
• Betting Odds To Win Group: -250 (Value: 0.5%)

Brazil enters the 2024 Copa América facing challenges following Neymar's injury, a significant setback for the team's ambitions. Despite this, the Seleção possess a wealth of attacking talent including emerging star Endrick, who has drawn comparisons to Pele after impressive performances against England and Spain. Brazil's squad depth remains formidable with players like Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, Gabriel Martinelli, and Raphinha ready to step up. However, recent mixed results in World Cup qualifying and a drawn friendly against the USA highlight vulnerabilities, particularly in midfield and defense. The center-back pairing of Lucas Beraldo and Marquinhos provides solidity, but questions remain about midfield dominance and defensive resilience. Despite these challenges, Brazil's talent ensures they remain a formidable contender in the tournament, albeit with uncertainties that could impact their campaign.

Colombia

• Win Group: 17.0%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 56.3%
• Average Points: 4.3
• Betting Odds To Win Group: +275 (Value: -9.7%)

Colombia enters the 2024 Copa América in formidable form, riding a streak of seven consecutive victories and unbeaten in their last 22 matches since February 2022. Led by Argentine manager Néstor Lorenzo, who took charge in 2022, Colombia has rejuvenated under his guidance. The resurgence has seen star players like James Rodríguez and Luis Díaz thrive, with Rodríguez orchestrating the midfield and Díaz aiming to defend his Golden Boot title from the previous Copa América. Defensively solid and tactically astute, Colombia is poised to surprise many at the tournament, building on recent wins over Brazil in qualifying and friendly victories against Spain and the United States.

Paraguay

• Win Group: 6.4%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 28.6%
• Average Points: 3.7
• Betting Odds To Win Group: +650 (Value: -1.3%)

Paraguay heads into the 2024 Copa América after consecutive quarter-final appearances but with a lukewarm start to World Cup qualifying, collecting just five points from six matches. Despite a promising draw against Chile and a narrow loss to Argentina, where they challenged Messi's squad, Paraguay's overall performance has been underwhelming. The team relies heavily on star player Miguel Almirón to spark change on the field. However, their tough group stage draw against Brazil and Colombia suggests a challenging path ahead, dimming hopes for a deep tournament run based on their current form.

Costa Rica

• Win Group: 4.7%
• Advance to Quarterfinals: 23.8%
• Average Points: 3.3
• Betting Odds To Win Group: +700 (Value: -0.5%)

Costa Rica heads into the 2024 Copa América with a team in transition. Once a formidable force on the global stage, the departure of their golden generation has left them with a young and inexperienced squad needing to rebuild. The absence of Keylor Navas, a stalwart in goal, looms large, as his leadership and skill were pivotal in past successes. Currently, the team relies heavily on Joel Campbell and Francisco Calvo, the only players with over 30 caps, to guide them through this challenging phase. With limited experience and talent, expectations for a deep tournament run are tempered. Costa Rica faces a tough road ahead as they seek to make their mark amidst formidable competition.

Summary

Brazil is the favorite to win Group D, with a dominant probability of advancing to the quarterfinals. Colombia is also expected to progress but has a negative betting value. Paraguay and Costa Rica have lower chances, making them less favorable bets.

Predicted Quarterfinal Matches

Based on the simulation data, the predicted winners of the quarterfinal matches in the 2024 Copa América are projected as follows:

Argentina vs. Mexico: The data suggests Argentina has a strong likelihood of advancing past Mexico to the semifinals with a 69% win rate.

Ecuador vs. Chile: Ecuador is favored to face Chile and move on to the next round based on the simulations. Ecuador has a slight 51% chance to beat Chile.

USA vs. Colombia: The United States is projected to meet Colombia in a tightly contested match, with both teams having reasonable chances to progress. Ultimately, the Americans have a 59% chance to win this match.

Brazil vs. Uruguay: Brazil is anticipated to clash with Uruguay, where Brazil has the upper hand according to the simulation data. We’re giving Brazil a 65% chance to win this match.

These predictions provide insights into the expected outcomes based on statistical analysis, highlighting where the strengths and opportunities lie for each team as they progress through the tournament stages. However, as football is inherently unpredictable, these projections also acknowledge the potential for surprises and the excitement that comes with the Copa América's dynamic nature.

Predicted Semifinal Matches

Based on the simulation data, the predicted winners of the semifinal matches in the 2024 Copa América are projected as follows:

Argentina vs. Ecuador: Argentina has a 70% chance of beating Ecuador.

USA vs. Brazil: Brazil has a 66% chance of beating the USA.

Argentina has a 69% probability of reaching the semifinals, a 70% chance of advancing to the finals, and a 70% likelihood of winning the semifinal against Ecuador. Their overall probability of winning the tournament is 21%, but the betting value for Argentina is -15%, making it an unfavorable bet. Brazil, with a 65% probability of reaching the semifinals, has a 66% chance of advancing to the finals and a 66% likelihood of winning the semifinal against the USA. Brazil's overall probability of winning the tournament is 19%, and their betting value is -12%, also indicating an unfavorable bet. Ecuador has a 51% probability of reaching the semifinals, a 30% chance of advancing to the finals, and a 30% likelihood of winning the semifinal against Argentina. Ecuador's overall probability of winning the tournament is 6%, with a neutral betting value of 0%. The USA has a 59% probability of reaching the semifinals, a 34% chance of advancing to the finals, and a 34% likelihood of winning the semifinal against Brazil. The USA's overall probability of winning the tournament is 8%, with a slightly favorable betting value of 1%.

2024 Copa America Best Bets

Based on the BetQL simulation results for Copa America 2024, Argentina and Brazil, despite having high probabilities of winning (21% and 19% respectively), offer poor betting value due to negative values of -15% and -12%. In contrast, Chile, with an 8% win probability, presents a good betting opportunity with a positive value of +5%. The USA and Mexico, both with small positive values of 1%, also suggest fair bets. Additionally, Uruguay, Peru, and Venezuela, although having lower winning probabilities, provide slightly positive values, making them more favorable bets compared to Argentina and Brazil.

Avoid betting on Argentina or Brazil due to their negative values despite high winning chances. Consider betting on Chile for better value, as they are undervalued by the betting odds. The USA, Mexico, Uruguay, Peru, and Venezuela also offer fair to slightly positive value bets. This analysis helps identify potential betting opportunities by comparing simulated probabilities with betting odds.

Chile To Win 2024 Copa America (+3700, FanDuel): This is priced down to +2500 elsewhere and our simulations show that they have an 8% chance to win the tournament. These +3700 odds have a 2.63% implied probability which means we’re locking in 5.37% of value by taking advantage of this price. If Chile gets out of their Group and wins their Quarterfinal game, you’ll likely get a solid cashout number.

USA To Win Group C (+137, Bet365): We’re giving the USA a 48.2% chance to win Group C, which means these +137 odds are valuable since that’s a 42.19% implied probability.

Argentina-Brazil To Meet In Final (+225, BetMGM): This may not seem like a “fun” pick, but our model lists these two teams as the most talented in the field by a longshot. Argentina has a 21% chance to win it all while Brazil has a 19% chance; they’re the only two teams that have above a 10% chance, per our simulation.