2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Picks

With Joey Chestnut out, the field is wide open on the men's side

Dan Karpuc - Jul 4, 2024, 8:23am EDT

2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting

Fireworks. Barbeques. Concerts. Parades. These are uniquely American traditions when it comes to celebrating the Fourth of July. However, the Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest is right up there as a yearly tradition that’s etched into our fabric as a nation.

Too dramatic? Probably. But let’s just roll with it (see what I did there?). It’s frankly the best (see what I did there?).

Due to the notable absence of eight-time defending champion Joey Chestnut, this year’s event is unpredictable and betting markets reflect that fact. So, let’s relish the moment; we mustard up the best betting picks below to crush the books. (I’m going to stop asking if you see what I did there… I can’t - and won’t - stop now).

The contest will take place from 11am to 1pm at the iconic Nathan’s Famous restaurant in Coney Island. Chestnut’s dominance over the years has set a high bar, but his recent deal with Impossible Foods, a plant-based brand (how dare he?!), has led to his exclusion from this year's competition, opening the field for new contenders to claim the title.

Below, you’ll see bun-believable bets from the men’s and women’s divisions… weiner takes all! Don’t be the wurst and miss out!

Men’s Division Odds

Geoffrey Esper (+100), James Webb (+185), Nick Wehry (+550), Patrick Bertoletti (+650), Field (+2500), Gideon Oji (+5000), Darrien Thomas (+5000), Derek Hendrickson (+7500), Max Stanford (+7500), George Chiger (+7500)

In the men's division, Geoffrey Esper stands out as the favorite with odds of +100, per DraftKings. Esper, a 49-year-old from Oxford, Massachusetts, has consistently performed well, finishing second to Chestnut in recent years, including a 49-hot-dog effort in 2023. Known for his diverse eating records, such as consuming 83 slices of pizza in 10 minutes and 281 Hooters’ chicken wings, Esper is eager to claim his first Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest victory. With the absence of Chestnut, this could be his best chance yet.

James Webb, an Australian competitive eater, is also a strong contender with odds of +185. Webb has been impressive since his debut, finishing third with 41 hot dogs in 2022 and improving to 47 in 2023. At 35, Webb is still relatively new to the American competitive eating scene but has quickly established himself as a formidable competitor.

Nick Wehry, with odds of +550, is another top pick. The 34-year-old bodybuilder from Tampa, Florida, has steadily improved his performance, finishing fourth last year with 45 hot dogs. Wehry, who is married to the reigning women's champion (and favorite) Miki Sudo, has benefited from her experience and support. His diverse competitive eating resume includes a record of 50 hard-boiled eggs in three minutes and four seconds. That’s disgusting… and impressive.

For sleepers, Gideon Oji (+5000) and Patrick Bertoletti (+650) offer intriguing possibilities. Oji, standing at 6-foot-9, uses his considerable frame to his advantage in eating contests. He finished fourth in 2016 with 38 hot dogs and has a unique skill set, including a victory in the World’s Healthiest Eating Championship. Bertoletti, known for holding numerous world records in various food disciplines, has long sought to claim the Nathan’s title. His tenacity and experience make him a potential dark horse in this year's competition.

Men’s Pick: Geoffrey Esper To Win (+100, DraftKings)

Esper, currently ranked 2nd overall by Major League Eating behind Joey Chestnut, is a true multi-disciplinary eater. He is comfortable eating a wide variety of foods, including 83 slices of John's Incredible Pizza in 10 minutes and 281 Hooters wings in the same amount of time. He has claimed titles such as the Hooters Wing-Eating Champion in 2017 and 2019, and has also won competitions like the Fortune Bay Indian Taco and Jack's Donuts Donut Holes. On June 17, 2023, Esper secured his third consecutive strawberry shortcake eating record by consuming 21 pounds of the treat in eight minutes.

Esper holds numerous records in different food categories. He consumed 9.75 pounds of SPAM in eight minutes at SPAMARAMA (I need to look into this event) on October 23, 2021. On October 1, 2022, he devoured 11 corn dogs in three minutes at the Clowndog Hot Dog Parlor. He also holds the record for eating 36 4.5oz brats in 10 minutes on August 24, 2019, and 39 Fortune Bay Indian Tacos in eight minutes on November 2, 2019. Esper ate 83 slices of 10" pizza in 10 minutes on April 22, 2018, and 107 Æbleskivers in eight minutes on May 26, 2018. On September 28, 2019, he consumed 95 2oz Market Street tamales in 10 minutes, and on July 15, 2018, he ate 19.25 9" personal pizzas in 10 minutes. He holds the record for eating 23.75 pounds of strawberry shortcake in eight minutes on June 15, 2024, and 26 pretzels in eight minutes on June 8, 2019.

Other records include consuming 37.5 9oz sloppers in eight minutes on September 5, 2020, and completing the DraftKings Big Game Snackdown menu, which includes various items such as a whole pepperoni pizza and 25 pigs in a blanket, in five minutes and 43 seconds on February 7, 2021. He ate 11.5 slices of Benny's Virginia Slice Pizza in 10 minutes on April 16, 2022, and 32.25 4oz Outlaw Egg Rolls in eight minutes on June 11, 2022. On August 5, 2022, he consumed 15.5 pounds of banana pudding in eight minutes, and on September 18, 2022, he ate 76 3.2oz brats in 10 minutes. Most recently, he ate 17.75 bagels with cream cheese in eight minutes on January 15, 2023.

Esper's extensive experience and success in a wide range of food categories make him a strong contender in any competitive eating contest. His ability to adapt to different foods and maintain high performance levels across various competitions demonstrates his versatility and endurance. Additionally, his consistent record-breaking performances, including his recent achievement of consuming 23.75 pounds of strawberry shortcake, highlight his exceptional eating capabilities. These factors collectively make Esper a solid pick to win the contest.

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Women’s Division Odds

Miki Sudo (+1600), Mayoi Ebihara (+700), Michelle Lesco (+2000), Field (+5000), Katie Prettyman (+7500), Larell marie Mele (+10000)

In the women's division, Miki Sudo is the overwhelming favorite with odds of -1600. Sudo, who has won the contest nine times, including a victory with 39.5 hot dogs in 2023, is a dominant force in competitive eating. Her diverse achievements include consuming 48.5 hot dogs in 2020 and numerous other records across different food categories.

Mayoi Ebihara, with odds of +700, and Michelle Lesco (+2000) are the closest challengers to Sudo. Ebihara has shown promise with her competitive eating prowess, while Lesco, who won in 2021 with 30.75 hot dogs during Sudo’s absence, remains a strong competitor.

Women’s Pick: Miki Sudo Under 41.5 Hot Dogs (-150, DraftKings)

This is not a knock on Miki Sudo, ranked 3rd by Major League Eating regardless of gender. She’s a versatile and highly accomplished competitive eater.

Sudo's hot dog performance over the years has varied, though, with her highest count being 48.5 in 2020, the women’s record. Her recent performances include 39.5 hot dogs last year and 40 the year before. Her record indicates she has only surpassed 41.5 hot dogs once in her career at this event (the record-breaking year). Given her consistent performance and historical data, betting on her to consume under 41.5 hot dogs at -150 seems a reasonable choice.

Because it’s fun (and gross) to point out, her impressive record includes consuming a wide variety of foods, such as 16.5 pints of vanilla ice cream in 6 minutes at the Indiana State Fair and 8.5 lbs of kimchi in 6 minutes at the Chicago Korean Festival. She also devoured 14 lbs of wild rice hotdish in 8 minutes at the Fortune Bay Resort Casino. Notably, she set a record by eating 48.5 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes at the Nathan's Famous Hot Dogs and Buns competition on July 4th, 2020. Other records include consuming 368 steamed fish balls in 8 minutes on August 4, 2023, 348 slices of cheese in 8 minutes on August 6, 2023, and 39.5 steamed pork buns in 8 minutes on August 5, 2023. Additionally, she ate 87 glazed donuts in 8 minutes on August 6, 2023.

Sudo is heavily favored to win the competition at -1600, making this bet less attractive due to low returns. However, another potential bet is Sudo at -7.5 dogs versus Mayoi Ebihara, with a hot dog line of -125. (Hot dog lines are my new favorite thing in the betting world.) Considering her strong track record, Sudo is likely to outperform Ebihara by a significant margin as she’s the best women’s eater in the world.