College Football Win Totals: 2022 Best Bets By Conference

The 2022 season is approaching quickly and BetQL is your source for NCAAF best bets, live college football public bets, live NCAAF sharp data, college football line movement and historical betting trends in addition to our NCAAF articles that cover the sport from top to bottom. Below, you’ll see regular season win total values using our simulation model data. After simulating every game in the upcoming season 10,000 times, these are the specific bets you should make as soon as possible, paired with our projections. Click on any of the conferences below to skip down or simply scroll down to get started. Who will get into double digits? Who will earn bowl eligibility and who will miss out? Which teams are overvalued or undervalued? Let’s see… 

AAC | ACC | BIG 12 | BIG TEN | CONFERENCE USA | INDEPENDENTS | MAC | MOUNTAIN WEST | PAC-12 | SEC | SUN BELT

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

BetQL has gone 309-76 (80.26%) all-time on AAC moneyline bets.

#23 Cincinnati: Over 9 (11.5)

Cincinnati’s Week 1 test against Arkansas will reveal a lot about them and quarterback Ben Bryant, who is in his second stint with the program after spending time behind Desmond Ridder, leaving to start at Eastern Michigan and then returning. However, his leash could be short with former four-star recruit Evan Prater right behind him (the two may even split playing time early in the year). Nonetheless, our model expects Cincinnati to fly over their nine-win total and take advantage of their easy schedule after finishing 13-1 with a Cotton Bowl loss last year. Not only do they not have another ranked opponent on their schedule outside of Arkansas, but they also will avoid Houston in AAC play. Take a look at our best bets for their Week 1 battle below. BetQL has gone 23-14 (62.16%) on Cincinnati over/under bets all-time for a total return of $691 on $100 bets.

Southern Methodist: OVER 4.5 (7)

Former Oklahoma backup Tanner Mordecai was amazing for SMU last season, accounting for 41 touchdowns (39 passing) with 3,628 passing yards (T-12th in FBS) and 12 interceptions. This program won eight games last season and began the year on a 7-0 run under new head coach Rhett Lashlee. Now in the second year under him with a full offseason to prepare, our simulations suggest that betting over 4.5 wins is the clear choice when it comes to the Mustangs’ total. This roster has upperclassmen all over its starting offense and defense and the Mordecai-led offense will keep them in games. Cincinnati and Houston are the only two ranked teams on their schedule currently and they’ll have a solid chance to take down Maryland and/or TCU, who they face in Weeks 3 and 4 before conference play begins. See our best bets for their Week 1 matchup against North Texas below.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

#4 Clemson: Over 10.5 (11)

2021 was a “down year” for Clemson, who only went 10-2. By their standards, the two-loss regular season and 21-point Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State was a gigantic letdown. However, per usual, this team is loaded with talent, starting with quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, who struggled at times last season. Despite an unusually-tough regular season schedule that includes matchups at Wake Forest, versus NC State, at Notre Dame and against Miami (FL), BetQL is projecting the Tigers to win 11 games, over their 10.5-game total. They’ll get started with a Week 1 matchup against Georgia Tech.

#13 NC State: Under 8.5 (7)

As seen by their No. 13 ranking in the AP Poll, NC State has been getting a lot of love after they went 9-3 last year. They’re returning most of their offensive and defensive starters, including star quarterback Devin Leary, who threw for 3,433 yards with 35 touchdowns and five interceptions. They struggled finding a go-to running back last season and averaged 4.1 yards per carry, so that’ll be a potential weak spot this year once again. The Wolfpack have matchups versus Texas Tech, at Clemson, against Florida State, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest to worry about before finishing up the year with two road battles at Louisville and North Carolina. After our simulation, we’re projecting NC State to finish 7-5 in the regular season, below their 8.5-win total. See our best bets for their opener against East Carolina below. BetQL has gone 19-12 (61.29%) on NC State O/U bets all-time for a total return of $524 on $100 bets.

BIG 12 CONFERENCE

BetQL has gone 180-140 (56.25%) all-time on Big 12 over/under bets.

Texas: Under 8.5 (7)

Is this the year that Texas will re-take its throne at the top of the Big 12? After years and years of letdowns, numerous coaching changes and roster turnovers, Ohio State transfer quarterback Quinn Ewers will take the reins of an offense filled with talent under coach Steve Sarkisian. However, does this team have what it takes to get over the 8.5-win total? BetQL’s simulation says no, as challenging matchups against Alabama, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor will likely prevent that from happening. Overall, the simulation lists the Longhorns as a 7-5 team, an improvement over last year’s 5-7 mark, but still short of the lofty expectations they have as a program. They’ll get started with a matchup against UL Monroe in their opener. BetQL has gone 18-11 (62.07%) on Texas O/U bets all-time for a total return of $537 on $100 bets.

West Virginia: Under 5.5 (5)

The Mountaineers went 6-7 last season, but brought in former Gerogia and USC quarterback JT Daniels to take over in the offseason. This is still a very young team, with numerous underclassmen projected to take on important roles on both sides of the football. That inexperience could be a major issue against teams like Pittsburgh, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Texas and TCU, among others. This is projected to be a 5-7 West Virginia team that fails to earn bowl eligibility. They’ll take on Pittsburgh in their season opener; take a look at our model’s best bets below.

BIG TEN CONFERENCE

#2 Ohio State: Over 10.5 (11.5)

The Week 1 matchup between Ohio State and Notre Dame is going to be a ton of fun to watch and bet. OSU’s 11-2 season culminated with a Rose Bowl win last year and this team is a legitimate national title contender. They’re stacked in all phases of the game and the offensive trio of C.J. Stroud, TreVeyon Henderson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at QB, RB and WR has historic potential. Stroud threw for 4,435 yards with 44 touchdowns and six interceptions last year, Henderson rushed 183 times for 1,248 yards (6.8 yards per carry) with 15 touchdowns and Smith-Njigba caught 95 passes for 1,606 yards and nine scores. After simulating all of their games 10,000 times, BetQL is projecting them to go 11-1 or 12-0 in the regular season. Their main tests will come against Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Michigan, but it’s difficult to name a more complete team than the Buckeyes. Take a look at our best bets for their matchup against the Fighting Irish below.

Minnesota: Over 7.5 (9.5)

Minnesota has a ton of potential this season. Per the model, they’re projected to win 9.5 regular season games this year, two games more than their total. The return of fifth-year senior running back Mohamed Ibrahim is a huge deal for this squad, after he got hurt in the first game last year. In 2020, he racked up 1,076 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns as the team’s workhorse and should re-take that role again. This is a very experienced team filled with upperclassmen and grad transfers and they have a very easy schedule. In fact, their road matchups against Michigan State and Wisconsin are their only ranked opponents. They’ll get started with a matchup against New Mexico State and will look to build on their 9-4 campaign last season.

CONFERENCE USA

Florida Atlantic: Over 5.5 (7)

Florida Atlantic and Charlotte will open the year with a Week 0 Conference USA showdown. BetQL is projecting both of these teams to earn bowl eligibility, but let’s start off with FAU. Under head coach Willie Taggart, this team went 5-7 last year and former Miami quarterback N’Kosi Perry transferred in to take over the starting role. As a graduate student, he will instantly become the best quarterback in the conference and it’ll be fascinating to see how FAU fares as the season rolls on. We’re projecting them to finish 7-5.

Charlotte: Over 4.5 (7)

This is one of the most misvalued win totals you can find right now and I wrote a full profile on this team recently. After finishing 5-7 last year, we’re projecting them to flip that around to 7-5 this year and gain entry into a bowl game. The Charlotte offense will run through senior quarterback Chris Reynolds (30 total touchdowns: 26 passing, 9 interceptions, 2,680 passing yards), who will get all three of his starting wideouts back: Grant DuBose, Victor Tucker and Elijah Spencer. Eight offensive starters will return and the model is high on the 49ers to outperform their expectations. BetQL has gone 16-11 (59.26%) on Charlotte O/U bets all-time for a total return of $355 on $100 bets.

INDEPENDENTS (FBS)

BetQL has gone 611-396 (60.68%) all-time on Independent program bets.

#5 Notre Dame: Over 9.5 (10)

We’re going to learn a ton about this Notre Dame team right away since they take on Ohio State in Week 1. The Fighting Irish went 11-2 last year and coach Brian Kelly famously decided to leave, which led to the hiring of Marcus Freeman. There will be some turnover on this roster, most notably at quarterback and running back, but overall, it’s tough to imagine this team struggling much. Marquee matchups at Ohio State, versus Clemson, and at USC highlight their schedule and a midseason test against BYU is also there, but BetQL is projecting them to win two out of those four contests and run the table against the rest of their opponents. BetQL has gone 127-80 (61.35%) across all Notre Dame bets all-time. 

Liberty: Over 6.5 (8)

This Liberty football team went 8-5 with Malik Willis under center last season and our model is projecting them to win eight games again this year under coach Hugh Freeze. Former Baylor starter Charlie Brewer transferred here to take over at QB1 while Utah transfer T.J. Green will look to make a difference at running back after he averaged 6.4 yards per carry with limited touches last year. Based on Freeze’s offensive system, expect this team to score points consistently. The Flames will have challenges at Wake Forest, versus BYU, at Arkansas and against Virginia Tech, but the model projects them to win all of their other games, all of which are against inferior, non-ranked opponents. They’ll get started with a Week 1 battle against Southern Mississippi. BetQL has gone 20-9 (68.97%) on Liberty 1st half ATS bets for a total return of $913 on $100 bets and 16-6 (72.73%) on Liberty 1st half O/U bets for a total return of $887 on $100 bets.

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE (MAC)

BetQL has gone 176-142 (55.35%) on 1st half MAC ATS bets all-time. 

Western Michigan: Over 6.5 (7.5)

Western Michigan is coming off an 8-5 campaign and will boast the MAC’s best running back duo once again: Sean Tyler and La’Darius Jefferson. Tyler rushed for 1,150 yards (6.5 yards per carry) with nine touchdowns while Jefferson rushed for 836 yards (4.5 yards per carry) with 10 touchdowns last year and this should be a very run-heavy team once again, especially since redshirt freshman Jack Salopek will likely start at quarterback. This Broncos defense will be led by numerous upperclassmen and graduate students as well, so there’s seemingly a lot to like about their chances to exceed their 6.5-win total. BetQL is projecting them to have 7.5 wins in 2022. They’ll try to upset Michigan State in Week 1; check out our best bets below. BetQL has gone 18-10 (64.29%) on Western Michigan ATS bets for a total return of $637 on $100 wagers.

Kent State: Over 5 (6)

Kent State finished last year 7-7 with an impressive 6-2 record in the MAC. While quarterback Dylan Crum is gone, new QB1 Collin Schlee was solid in relief last year and this team returns three of the conference’s top playmakers: running backs Marquez Cooper and Xavier Williams and receiver Dante Cephas. Cooper averaged 5.0 yards per carry and put up 1,205 yards with 11 rushing touchdowns last season, Williams rushed for 812 yards on 6.5 yards per carry with three scores and Cephas recorded 82 catches for 1,240 yards and nine touchdowns. Our model views this as a bowl team with a six-win output this season and they’ll get started with a tough matchup against Washington in Week 1. BetQL has gone 18-10 (64.29%) on Kent State 1st Half ATS bets for a total return of $626 on $100 bets.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE

BetQL has gone 179-138 (56.47%) on Mountain West 1st Half O/U bets all-time. 

Nevada: Over 5 (7)

After going 8-5 with Carson Strong at quarterback last year, this 2022 Wolf Pack team has big shoes to fill if it intends on improving. Redshirt senior Nate Cox will take over at QB as nine different transfers are projected to start for this new-look roster. Taking that all into account, our model is projecting Nevada as a seven-win team and views them as a bowl-bound program in 2022. They’re playing in one of the seven Week 0 games that we covered and will look to get off to a great start against New Mexico State.

Wyoming: Over 5 (6.5)

Wyoming is coming off a 7-6 season and should benefit from the addition of Utah State transfer Andrew Peasley, a dual threat quarterback. However, last year’s leading rusher Xazavian Holliday (1,070 yards) and leading receiver Isaiah Neyor (44 receptions, 878 yards, 12 TD) are both gone, which leaves a pair of major voids. Our model is still viewing this as a bowl-eligible team with 6.5 wins, but the program is not projected to surpass last season’s win total. They’ll take on Illinois as an underdog in Week 1 and you can check out our best bets for that game below. BetQL has gone 19-10 (65.52%) on Wyoming ATS bets all-time for a total return of $732 on $100 wagers.

PAC-12 CONFERENCE

BetQL has gone 189-144 (56.76%) all-time on Pac-12 over/under bets.

#14 USC: Under 9.5 (8.5)

After Lincoln Riley bolted from Oklahoma to become USC’s next head coach, the Trojans became a very popular national title bet and one of the favorites to win the Pac-12. That wasn’t only due to Riley’s hiring, but it was due to the talent that he brought with him in an effort to turn around the historic program that went just 4-8 last season. Most notably, that list contains Oklahoma transfer Caleb Williams (QB), Oregon transfer Travis Dye (Oregon), Pittsburgh transfer Jordan Addison (Pitt) and Oklahoma transfer Mario Williams (Oklahoma). In total, the number of transfers to start might reach double-digits and this team will look completely different, both personnel-wise and also schematically. They’ll get started with an easy matchup against Rice. BetQL has gone 22-6 (78.57%) on USC over/under bets all-time for a total return of $1,400 on $100 wagers. 

#7 Utah: Under 8.5 (6.5)

After they went 10-4 last year, BetQL is not high on Utah this season, despite their No. 7 ranking in the AP Poll. Not only will they have a tough game out of the gates against Florida, but they also have a matchup against USC and at Oregon on their schedule, among some dangerous Pac-12 opponents. Last year, they exceeded their expectations, but after simulating their games 10,000 times, the Utes are projected to regress in 2022. Check out our best bets for their season-opener against the Gators below. BetQL has gone 20-10 (66.67%) on Utah O/U bets all-time for a total return of $823 on $100 wagers.

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE (SEC)

BetQL has gone 255-207 (55.19%) all-time on SEC over/under bets.

#3 Georgia: Over 10.5 (11)

Despite the fact that they’ll have to replace a number of impactful starters, Bulldogs will look to defend their national championship. Stetson Bennett will return as the starting quarterback after throwing for 2,862 yards with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions last year. This team’s offensive identity will still be on the ground, though, after they rushed 545 times for 2,864 yards (5.3 yards per carry) as a team with 29 scores on the ground last year. Defensively, Kirby Smart will return some studs and also replenish those he lost with new five-star recruits, so don’t expect much of a drop off there. A Week 1 test against Oregon will show us a lot about this new Bulldogs team on both sides of the football and you can check out all of our best bets for that game below. BetQL is projecting Georgia to go 11-1 and it’s important to note that the only two ranked opponents on their regular-season schedule right now are the Ducks and Kentucky later in the year. 

#1 Alabama: Under 11.5 (10.5)

It says a lot about Alabama that their regular-season win total is 11.5 (out of 12 contests). Led by Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young, Nick Saban added Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Georgia Tech), Jermaine Burton (WR, Georgia), Tyler Harrell (WR, Louisville) and left tackle Tyler Steen (LT, Vanderbilt) to his offense and will return a number of impactful, NFL-ready players on the defensive side of the ball and on his offensive line. Young accounted for 50 touchdowns (47 passing, 3 rushing) with just seven interceptions and also threw for an insane 4,872 yards in his sophomore season, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can eclipse those numbers this year. He will take the field with his teammates against Utah State in the season-opener.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE

BetQL has gone 189-146 (56.42%) all-time on Sun Belt over/under bets.

Coastal Carolina: Over 8 (10)

Coastal won the hearts of America last season when they went 11-2 and this team has an opportunity to be very good once again. BetQL is projecting them to win 10 games, two full games above their regular-season win total and two impactful players come to mind when thinking about their offense: quarterback Grayson McCall and running back Braydon Bennett. McCall completed 73.0% of his passes for 2,873 yards with 27 passing touchdowns compared to just three interceptions last season and also added four rushing scores. Meanwhile, Bennett was a part of the team’s running back rotation and averaged an insane 8.6 yards per carry with 636 total yards and seven touchdowns. With Shermari Jones gone, Bennett should see the majority of the carries in what should be a very productive backfield. The Chanticleers don’t face a single ranked opponent as their schedule stands right now. They’ll open the year against Army and you can see those best bets below. BetQL has gone 21-14 (60%) on Coastal Carolina O/U bets all-time for a total return of $518 on $100 wagers.

Georgia State: Under 7.5 (5)

This is another of BetQL’s most obvious value bets. After going 8-5 last season, this team is returning most of its impact players, but has a difficult schedule, especially early in the year when they have to travel to take on South Carolina and then host North Carolina, Charlotte and Coastal Carolina. Three of their final four regular-season games are on the road as well, which is always a difficult way to close out the campaign. The simulation data suggests they’ll go 5-7 and therefore miss out on bowl eligibility. Find out what bets you should make for their opener against South Carolina. BetQL has gone 23-10 (69.70%) on Georgia State O/U bets all-time for a total return of $1,091 on $100 wagers.