Week 0 College Football Best Bets

Week 0 College Football

Week 1 of the college football season will officially start on Thursday August 29, 2024, but the true start of the 2024 season is Week 0, which takes place on Saturday August 24. The #5 Florida State Seminoles will take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at the Aer Lingus College Football Classic in Dublin, Ireland at 12:00pm ET and then the Nevada Wolfpack will host the #24 SMU Mustangs in the second and final Division I contest of the day at 3:00pm ET. Below, you’ll see my best bets for the two games. 

Georgia Tech vs. #5 Florida State Under 55.5 (-115, BetMGM)

While I’m a believer in FSU HC Mike Norvell, the Seminoles have to deal with a ton of turnover at their offensive skill positions with Jordan Travis (QB), Trey Benson (RB), Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson (WR) and Jaheim Bell (TE) all gone. Former Clemson and Oregon State QB DJ Uiagalelei transferred in as a graduate with plenty of experience under his belt and he will be protected behind an experienced offensive line, but there are a lot of question marks right now. Who will step up and lead the stable of running backs and tight ends? Will Alabama transfer Malik Benson and LSU transfer Jalen Brown vault ahead of the returning wideouts? Will Uiagalelei take a step forward or look like the guy who couldn't make it work at Clemson?

Florida State’s defense was elite last year and was the only unit in America that allowed fewer completions than incompletions. Bolstered by impact transfers, DC Adam Fuller will be able to fill the voids left by those who left for the program. Overall, I see the Seminoles relying on elite performance from this group while they figure things out on the offensive end. This, in my opinion, is why they're ranked so high to start the new year.

Georgia Tech is considered a bubble team for bowl eligibility (win total is 5.5), but HC Brent Key surprisingly led this program to a 5-3 record in conference play last season and return a lot of production after the Yellow Jackets made their first bowl game since 2018. Most notably, QB Haynes King is back after accounting for 37 touchdowns (27 passing, 10 rushing), but he will have to take better care of the football (16 INT’s). One of this team’s strengths is pass protection (led the ACC in least sacks allowed) and they're also a solid rushing team (Jamal Haynes had 1,059 rushing yards and seven touchdowns), but facing a very tough opponent can suppress any breakout game from happening in Week 0. I expect them to struggle against FSU.

Defensively, GT has awesome safeties, solid linebackers, but the major concern is their pass rush. (They lost nearly their entire sack production from last year.) Florida State is a 13-point favorite and I think that’s a fair price for them. I'd rather not touch the spread, though, especially since the game will take place in Ireland and the Seminoles have so much uncertainty on offense.

Due to uncertainty on the offensive end for both teams, I think 55.5 is a bit inflated, so I’m going to roll with the under.

#24 SMU -23.5 vs. Nevada (Consensus)

Keep in mind that this is ranging from -20.5 to -27.5, so books have different point of views on the line. For the sake of this analysis, I'll use the consensus line.

Coming off back-to-back 2-10 seasons, Nevada made a change to bring in new HC Jeff Choate, an experienced college HC who was the DC at Texas for the last three years. While the program should be in good hands under his leadership, there will be some growing pains. Nevada has been horrendous offensively over the last couple years and it’s hard to see them competing with a nationally-ranked SMU squad.

Wolfpack starting QB Brendon Lewis was benched at times last season and there’s a lot of uncertainty over playing time there with Chubba Purdy (Brock’s brother) now a part of the team after transferring in from FSU. Due to some transfers and graduations, available wide receivers have caught a grand total of four passes at this level and there are huge question marks about the passing game as a whole after the offensive line was horrible last season. Former Oregon RB Sean Dollars and former Boston College RB Patrick Garwo are both going to be relied on heavily, but I have serious doubts about the impact they’ll be able to have since opposing defenses will likely stack the box due to the non-existent threat in the passing game. Defensively, this program is also in the midst of a rebuild, which is very bad news for them in this matchup. 

SMU has positional advantages all over the field and in every unit, starting with QB Preston Stone, who threw 28 touchdown passes (to just six interceptions) last year. Now a member of the ACC, this program loaded up with talent in the transfer portal and has nearly every major contributor back from last year’s 11-3 squad. Continuity should be a major positive for this team; Stone’s top seven receivers are back and ten of the top 11 tacklers are back on the defensive end. The Mustangs finished 16th nationally in total offense, 15th in yards per game allowed and held opponents to 17.8 points per game (tops in the AAC) last year, which highlighted their well-rounded play. 

Overall, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Mustangs, who averaged 38.7 points per game last season, put up 50-plus points in this matchup and I don’t see Nevada being able to do much against SMU’s defense. Last year, SMU hung 45-plus points five times and won five games by 24-plus points (including Temple: 55-0, Tulsa: 69-10 and Navy: 59-14). I think the Mustangs are going to stomp the Wolfpack on the road and am comfortable backing them to cover the big number.