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Kate Constable - Sep 26, 2023, 1:22pm EDT
Premium Betting Angles: Utah vs. Oregon State
Friday night features a top-25 matchup between No. 10 Utah traveling to Corvallis to take on No. 19 Oregon State. The Utes are 4-0 on the season after beating UCLA last weekend while the Beavers suffered their first loss of the year, losing a close one at Washington State.
Utah's starting quarterback Cam Rising has yet to play this season after suffering an ACL injury in last year's Rose Bowl game. Nate Johnson has led the Utes offense these last two games, but there is a chance that Rising returns this weekend. On the Beavers' side, DJ Uiagalelei is the man under center after transferring from Clemson. He owns a QBR that ranks in the top 25 in FBS and leads a high-flying offense that's averaging nearly 460 yards of total offense per game.
The Beavers are three-point favorites at most books with the total sitting at 45.5. Scroll down to see what bet I like based on a trend from our BetQL model.
The BetQL NCAAF model went 83-42 (67%) on all picks rated ⭐⭐⭐⭐ and higher last week for a total return of $1,540 on $100 bets! Subscribe now to gain access to the rest of this article as well as all of BetQL model's insights and picks!
Premium Betting Angles: Utah vs. Oregon State
Friday night features a top-25 matchup between No. 10 Utah traveling to Corvallis to take on No. 19 Oregon State. The Utes are 4-0 on the season after beating UCLA last weekend while the Beavers suffered their first loss of the year, losing a close one at Washington State.
Utah's starting quarterback Cam Rising has yet to play this season after suffering an ACL injury in last year's Rose Bowl game. Nate Johnson has led the Utes offense these last two games, but there is a chance that Rising returns this weekend. On the Beavers' side, DJ Uiagalelei is the man under center after transferring from Clemson. He owns a QBR that ranks in the top 25 in FBS and leads a high-flying offense that's averaging nearly 460 yards of total offense per game.
The Beavers are three-point favorites at most books with the total sitting at 45.5. Scroll down to see what bet I like based on a trend from our BetQL model.
The BetQL NCAAF model went 83-42 (67%) on all picks rated ⭐⭐⭐⭐ and higher last week for a total return of $1,540 on $100 bets! Subscribe now to gain access to the rest of this article as well as all of BetQL model's insights and picks!
Back a Pac-12 Defensive Showdown
Under 45.5 (-105, FanDuel)
Utah has looked great through the first four weeks of the season thanks to its dominant defense. Stopping the run has been its bread and butter with the third-best rushing defense in the country, holding opponents to just 47.7 yards on the ground per game. The Utes also rank 6th in opponents' points per game (10.3), 15th in opponents' completion percentage (54.21%), and 25th in total yards per game (309.3). Not to mention it leads the nation in opponents' third down conversion percentage (17.07%). If it wasn't clear by those stats, Utah wins games because of its defense.
That will certainly be tested on Friday against Oregon State's high-flying offense. The Beavers have one of the best ground attacks in the country, averaging 210.0 rushing yards per game. RB Damien Martinez leads the team with 432 yards this season, equaling nearly 7.6 yards per carry. However, the Beavers haven't faced a defense quite like Utah's and that has me believing their scoring output might be a little lower in this one.
Offensively for the Utes, they haven't been very explosive, averaging just 22.2 points per game. They only found the endzone twice last weekend against UCLA and Oregon State's defense is going to present a similar test.
Based on those storylines, I like this game to stay under the total of 45.5. This also follows a BetQL model trend that has been on fire: The model has gone 30-17-5 (63.8%) on Utah's totals and 27-15-6 (64.3%) on the same bet for Oregon State.
And would you look at that -- the model has the under as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ value. Back a defensive showdown in the Pac-12 on Friday night and take the under 45.5.
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