NCAAF Week 13 Staff Picks
Find out what bets we’re targeting this week
Dan Karpuc - Nov 24, 2021, 2:21pm ESTDan Karpuc: Florida -145 vs. Florida State
It’s been a disastrous season for both Florida (5-6) and Florida State (5-6), but this rivalry game will mean a lot for both rivals since each program still needs a win to be bowl eligible. Dan Mullen was axed as the Gators head coach leading into this game, but our model is giving Florida the clear edge as a -321 favorite with a 76.3% chance to win. The projected final score: 33 to 22.5 in favor of the Gators at The Swamp and I think we could see this team rally against their rival with an uncertain future ahead.
Brad Pinkerton: Kentucky-Louisville Under 57
With both teams coming off games where they cleared totals in the 60s -- Louisville actually dropped 62 on Duke, hitting the over themselves -- still fresh in bettors’ minds, this seems like an inflated total for this matchup. Louisville was just 3-7 O/U before the Duke game, and Kentucky’s offense has been held to 17 points or less in four of its last five games. BetQL projects just 50.5 points here, making U57 a five-star value. Oh, did I mention that BetQL has hit 64% of its five-star college football O/U bets the past two weeks?
Lucy Burdge: BC-Wake Forest Under 63.5
The under has gone 7-3 in Boston College games and I’m thinking the under will win again in this matchup. This is BC’s highest total so far this season and Wake Forest has only hit two overs higher than this of their five. Plus, BC is averaging 26.3 points scored per game so I think this will be a lower-scoring total.
Nick Ashooh: Marshall-Western Kentucky Under 74
This is a pretty big number, even for two teams putting up big numbers on offense. Marshall may be averaging over 41 points a game, but the over is 6-5 in their games this year and the total has never gone higher than 66 points in any of their games this season. The over is 8-3 in Western Kentucky games so far, so a better record there, but the under has won in two of their last three games with 70-plus point totals.