Sharp College Football Picks for Friday, December 20

NCAAF - Indiana (11-1) +7.5 at Notre Dame (11-1): -113, BetRivers

I think this is too many points to be laying with the Irish here at home, and as a Notre Dame fan, I am quite nervous about this game. The Hoosiers have been fantastic all season outside of one game, which just so happens to be the only team they faced that you would consider “great” in Ohio State, which was a blowout loss. Still, I think this team is for real and Notre Dame cannot take them lightly.

Indiana features an inside zone rushing attack on offense, led by QB Kurtis Rourke, RB Justice Ellison, and RB Ty Son Lawton. They have put up tons of yards and points this season, with 19 huge explosive highlight runs. Lawton has been dominant in the second half of the season, averaging 4.2 yards after contact against both Michigan and Ohio State, two very good defenses. If there is one place you can beat the Irish on defense, it is on the ground. Notre Dame ranked 83rd in opponent rush efficiency, but top-10 in pass defense and limiting explosive plays through the air.

It isn’t like Notre Dame won’t get theirs, however. The Hoosiers have also been hurt against opposing rushing attacks. Ohio State was stuffed on only six of their 28 rushing attempts against Indiana, and Maryland averaged 6.5 yards per carry. Star RB Jeremiyah Love should be a huge part of the Irish offense today, and has been red-hot in the second half of the year.

I think Notre Dame will win the game in the end, but I expect Indiana to keep this one close, and I’d back them at anything over a touchdown.

NCAAF - Tulane (9-4) +10.5 vs. Florida (7-5): -109, B

In full disclosure, I already bet the Green Wave at +14.5 immediately after QB Davion Mensah announced he was transferring to Duke. The line shifted dramatically after that, as you might expect when a starting QB is ruled out, moving from -8 to -14.5. I thought that kind of move was a bit ridiculous, so I bet Tulane getting two touchdowns. Sharps thought the exact same way, as it has now been steamed down to +10.5 at most sportsbooks.

I’d still bet Tulane at that number, as I think they can keep it within double-digits with the Gators, mostly due to what I think their game plan is going to be without Mensah. QB Ty Thompson is a tremendous athlete with the ability to run, and I think they are going to utilize that a lot here. Of course, RB Makhi Hughes will likely be their focal point, and I expect the Green Wave to run some creative rushing plays with these two at the point. They can really slow the game down and keep the Florida attack off the field this way.

If this is the case, and they can have some success doing this, I think they have a great chance to muk this game up enough to stay within the number. In addition to this, the books are going to want Tulane to cover here as well. Everyone is on the SEC team to win and cover, of course, and it would be a plus for Vegas if the Green Wave could cover the game.

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