SEC Championship: #4 Alabama vs. #1 Georgia Odds, Best Bets, Prediction

SEC Championship Preview

As always, the SEC Championship Game is the highlight of championship weekend. The game will feature the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs taking on the Alabama Crimson Tide in what some might consider the de-facto national championship game. At least one of these teams has been in nine of the last 10 SEC title games, including a 35-28 Alabama win in 2018. In fact, the Crimson Tide has won six in a row against the Bulldogs, including the College Football Playoff title game in January 2018, leaving Kirby Smart winless against his former boss Nick Saban. However, the Bulldogs are favored in this game by 6.5 points with the over/under set at 50.5 points for Saturday’s game in Atlanta.

Alabama Crimson Tide Preview

The whole city of Tuscaloosa breathed a huge sigh of relief after the Crimson Tide overcame a deficit late in the Iron Bowl last week, eventually winning the game in four overtimes. Granted, the Crimson Tide had already secured a spot in the SEC title game. But a second loss would have likely taken Alabama out of the College Football Playoff. Nick Saban’s team is now in the unusual position where a win over Georgia will likely make them the No. 1 seed, but a loss could take them out of the top-four entirely.

Coming out of the win over Auburn, there are serious questions about the Alabama offense for the first time all season. While the Tide is averaging over 42 points per game, both LSU and Auburn have kept the Alabama offense under wraps over the last month. Running back Brian Robinson is also battling an injury, putting his status into question for the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide doesn’t have a proven backup behind Robinson, creating some concern. Meanwhile, Bryce Young completed less than half his passes against Auburn last week while being sacked seven times. He’s now been sacked 15 times over Alabama’s last three SEC games, which is a sign that the Alabama offensive line isn’t dominating the trenches as usual.

Defensively, there are also a couple of small concerns for the Crimson Tide. The Alabama defense continues to dominate at the line of scrimmage, holding Auburn to 22 rushing yards last week, thanks in part to six sacks. But the Alabama defense has been vulnerable against the pass this season when the Tide’s pass rush hasn’t gotten to the quarterback. Keep in mind that they benefited from facing Auburn’s backup quarterback last week. However, the loss to Texas A&M and games against Tennessee and Arkansas saw the Crimson Tide give up a ton of yards through the air, showing a vulnerability that could be exploited.

Georgia Bulldogs Preview

There has been no slowing down the Bulldogs this season. Georgia’s 10-3 win over Clemson in the season opener is the closest game the Dawgs have had all season. Every other game has been decided by at least 17 points with most being a lot more lopsided. In fact, Georgia has been so dominant that the Bulldogs can probably lose this game and still be selected for the College Football Playoff. Of course, they would prefer to not worry about facing Alabama again, so their easiest path to a national championship would be to win this game.

If Georgia wins an SEC title and a national championship, it’ll likely be on the back of a historically good defense. The Bulldogs lead the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 6.9 points per game. They were on top of their game once again last week, shutting out rival Georgia Tech in a 45-0 win. It was Georgia’s third shutout of the season and the ninth time the Bulldogs held an opponent to 10 points or less, which tells you everything you need to know about how good the Bulldogs are on defense.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Bulldogs have scored at least 30 points in every game outside of the season opener against Clemson. Even with Stetson Bennett taking over at quarterback when JT Daniels got hurt and keeping the job, the Bulldogs have been steady and consistent all season. Bennett has limited himself to just five interceptions while only taking six sacks. To be fair, the backfield tandem of Zamir White and James Cook has done most of the heavy lifting. But Bennett has completed 65% of his passes while averaging close to 11 yards per pass, so he’s been effective at throwing the ball down the field, even though the Bulldogs don’t have a standout wide receiver, as tight end Brock Bowers leads the team in receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns.

SEC Championship Game Prediction

While there are undoubtedly questions about Alabama, it’s unusual and almost wrong to see the Crimson Tide listed as an underdog in any game. Remember that Georgia hasn’t been challenged in the SEC East the same way that Alabama has been challenged in the West Division. While the Georgia defense has been dominant, the Bulldogs aren’t overpowering offensively, so they might not be able to pull away from the Crimson Tide. Plus, Young and the Alabama offense can give the Bulldogs more trouble than they’ve received all year. In the end, this should be a one-score game that Alabama has a genuine chance to win.

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