Colorado narrowly escaped with a victory in Week 3, beating in-state rival Colorado State. It took Shedeur Sanders leading a 98-yard drive to tie the game with a touchdown and two-point conversion before winning 42-35 in overtime. The Buffalos now enter Pac-12 play undefeated but have an even bigger test ahead of them with Oregon on deck this weekend. The Ducks are also 3-0 and have won two of their three games with ease.
The line on this game opened at Oregon -19.5 but, for the first time in weeks, heavy money is being bet against Coach Prime's team, moving this to -21 in favor of the Ducks at the time of this writing. The total is set at 71.5, which makes sense considering the explosiveness of both teams' offenses. Scroll down to see what Oregon trend I'm taking into consideration before betting on this game.
The game will be broadcast on ABC at 3:30 p.m. ET at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR. Scroll down to see how I'd approach it.
Oregon's offense, led by quarterback Bo Nix, has put up some insane numbers this season. In their season opener against Portland State, the Ducks came ready to play, scoring 81 points. Yes, they were playing a very bad Portland State team, but putting up 81 points against anyone is hard to do. In Week 2, Oregon scored 38 points in a narrow win over Texas Tech before putting up 55 this past weekend against Hawaii.
While the Ducks are averaging 46.5 points per game, which ranks fifth in FBS, the way they are scoring is even more impressive. Nix has thrown eight touchdowns without a single interception. He's also completing nearly 80 percent of his passes for 9.1 yards per attempt.
Colorado allowed CSU 397 passing yards and gave up more than 540 total yards to TCU in Week 1. The Buff's defense isn't going to be able to handle what the Ducks are going to throw at them. Oregon should manhandle Colorado at the line of scrimmage, giving Nix plenty of time to find his targets. Colorado's star two-way player Travis Hunter also won't be playing in this game after being injured on Saturday. He's the best defensive player on that team and without him in the secondary, the Ducks will be able to take advantage.
Plus, one of the ways Colorado has been able to have so much success this season, is because of their ability to force turnovers. However, I mentioned that Nix has yet to throw an interception, and as a team, Oregon has yet to turn the ball over. I just don't see a way in which Coach Prime's defense is going to be able to slow down a team that ranks in the top 10 in yards per game (516.0), passing yards per game (354.5), and third down conversions per game (8.0).
Oregon Team Total Over
The success that Oregon has had on offense this season isn't going to slow down just because it's now entering Pac-12 play. At least not this week. Colorado's offense is the reason it's been able to win games this year. It ranks second in the nation in passing yards per game (418.0), which is ahead of Oregon, and 12th in points per game (41.3).
The Buffs are explosive, fast, and fun to watch because of their ability to find the endzone. But their inability to slow other teams down is why they're going to lose this game. It's also why I expect Oregon to surpass their team total for the fourth straight week. This number isn't posted yet, but I imagine that it'll be around 49, and I would play it all the way up to 51.
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