NCAAF Upset Alert: Top Underdog Picks for Week 1

As the college football season kicks off, Week 1 is brimming with excitement and opportunities for upsets. This year, a trio of underdogs is generating buzz and could potentially deliver major surprises. UConn, Kennesaw State, and Old Dominion each face formidable opponents but have the potential to defy expectations and secure unexpected victories. With significant roster upgrades, key transfers, and strategic advantages, these teams are positioned to shake up the early-season landscape. In this article, I delve into the reasons why these underdogs might just be the best bets for a thrilling start to the season.

UConn +950 at Maryland - Saturday 12:00 PM ET

The Huskies have significantly improved their roster, with a notable infusion of talent from the transfer portal. Nick Evers, who transferred from Oklahoma and Wisconsin, will start at quarterback, representing a substantial upgrade for UConn. His presence, combined with returning running backs Cam Edwards and Victor Rosa, and a revamped group of wide receivers—including Brett Buckman, Jasaiah Gathings (Akron), Skyler Bell (Wisconsin), Ezeriah Anderson (Campbell), Shamar Porter (Kentucky), and TJ Sheffield (Purdue)—enhances UConn's offensive capabilities. Buckman, UConn’s third-leading receiver from last season, is joined by these impactful transfers, some of whom should get instant playing time in prominent roles.

On the defensive side, UConn benefits from a blend of returning players and key transfers. The defensive front, under new coordinator Matt Brock from Mississippi State, features three returning starters and impactful transfers like Kervins Choute (UCF) and Jack Barton (Furman). Linebacker Tui Faumuina-Brown and Jayden McDonald (Troy), who led the team in tackles last season, will be vital in strengthening the defense. Although UConn lost its leading tackler Jackson Mitchell and other key defensive contributors, new additions such as Julien Simon (Tulsa) and Aaron Key (Western Kentucky) add depth. In the secondary, despite the departure of standout cornerback Mumu Bin-Wahad, experienced returners and new transfers like Jarvarius Sims (Central Michigan) bolster the defensive backfield.

Maryland, while returning seven starters on defense and five on offense, faces significant challenges. The Terps are replacing quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, and their offensive line and quarterback situation remains uncertain. Maryland's defense, although strong last season, was inconsistent at times, which could give UConn’s improved offense an edge. Given these factors, UConn’s enhanced roster and Maryland’s quarterback uncertainty could create an opportunity for the Huskies to secure a surprising victory.

Kennesaw State +1300 at UTSA - Saturday 3:30 PM ET

Kennesaw State faces UTSA in a potential upset, with the Owls listed at +1300. Despite low expectations, with a win total Over/Under of 2.5, Kennesaw State might surprise this season. They redshirted over 60 players in 2023, potentially setting up for a strong 2024. UTSA, coming off a 9-4 season, is facing significant uncertainty, not only with the transition to new quarterback Owen McCown after losing their all-time leading passer Frank Harris but also due to the loss of other key producers. McCown struggled last year as a backup, with a high turnover-worthy play rate, and UTSA may lean on a run-heavy approach.

This could play into Kennesaw State's favor, as their option RPO zone attack, which saw them run 362 times compared to 169 passes in 2023, could cause confusion for the Roadrunners' defense.

Old Dominion +800 at South Carolina - Saturday 4:15 PM ET

I wrote about why Old Dominion is one of my favorite ATS bets (+21) in Week 1 in my Inside My Bet Slip article, but they could potentially win outright against South Carolina for several compelling reasons. The Monarchs demonstrated a strong ability to keep games close last season, with 11 one-score contests and six games decided in the final play. This track record suggests they thrive under pressure and can handle high-stakes situations effectively, giving them a chance to pull off an upset.

The significant roster overhaul, with 57 newcomers including 28 transfers, brings fresh talent and energy to Old Dominion. This influx could provide the spark needed to exploit South Carolina’s weaknesses, particularly their problematic offensive line, which allowed the highest pressure rate among Power Five teams last season. ODU’s star linebacker, Jason Henderson, who led the nation in tackles per game for the past two seasons, will be key in applying pressure on South Carolina’s quarterback and disrupting their offensive flow. This pressure could lead to turnovers or stalled drives, giving ODU an opportunity to capitalize.

Additionally, Grant Wilson, ODU’s quarterback, offers stability and experience. As the leading returning passer and rusher, Wilson’s dual-threat capability and leadership could be crucial in outmaneuvering South Carolina’s defense. His ability to manage the game effectively might be enough to exploit South Carolina’s vulnerabilities.

Finally, South Carolina’s disappointing 5-7 record last season and ongoing issues with their offensive line contribute to their vulnerability. If Old Dominion can exploit these weaknesses and capitalize on any mistakes made by South Carolina, they have a solid chance of securing a surprising victory.

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