NCAAF Futures: Mispriced College Football Win Totals

2023 College Football Simulations

Are you ready for an exhilarating journey through the world of college football? With the 2023 season fast approaching, anticipation is at an all-time high as fans eagerly await the gridiron battles that will unfold. To add to the excitement, BetQL has delved into the heart of the game, simulating every single matchup 10,000 times to unveil the teams that we believe are the most undervalued in terms of regular season total wins.

So what makes this simulation stand out? BetQL's advanced algorithms and data-driven approach have meticulously analyzed each team's strengths, weaknesses, and strategies. The result? A comprehensive prediction model that captures the essence of college football in all its glory. 

In this article, we'll reveal the hidden gems that our simulations have uncovered - the teams that are poised to surpass expectations and make a resounding impact in the upcoming season. Be prepared to witness underdogs rise to the occasion, superstars lead their teams to glory, and electrifying clashes that will leave you on the edge of your seat. From thrilling neutral site battles to intense road tests, BetQL's simulations bring forth the excitement and unpredictability that make college football the thrilling sport that it is. 

So, brace yourselves for a roller-coaster of emotions as we navigate through the exhilarating world of college football. Get ready to cheer for your favorite teams and discover new contenders that could potentially rewrite the narrative of this season. So, sit back, relax, and prepare to get excited for the electrifying 2023 college football season with BetQL's simulation predictions!

Oregon Ducks u9.5 Regular Season Wins (+110, BetMGM)

Get ready for an exciting season ahead as BetQL takes you on a thrilling ride through our 10,000 simulations of every game in the 2023 season. We're projecting Oregon to win 7.5 regular season games.

The Ducks won't have it easy, facing some tough challenges on their schedule like Texas Tech, Washington, Utah, USC, and Oregon State. They'll have the home-field advantage for games against Portland State, Hawaii, Colorado, Washington State, and California, but they'll have to hit the road to take on Stanford and Arizona State.

Leading the way for Oregon is Coach Dan Lanning. The offense is set to revolve around their starting quarterback, the seasoned 23-year-old Bo Nix, and most of the skillful players who lit up last year's impressive offense. However, there will be some changes on the offensive line with new personnel and the arrival of a new offensive line coach. The only concern here is the lack of depth at quarterback, with just one other scholarship QB on the roster. So, keeping Nix healthy will be crucial.

Defensively, Oregon experienced ups and downs last season, ranking well against tough offenses like BYU, Arizona, and UCLA but struggled to prevent comebacks in losses to UW and OSU. The defense is in for a transformation, with several departing starters and some exciting new talents coming in through the transfer portal. However, keep an eye on the cornerback position as they'll be missing 1st Round draft pick Christian Gonzalez and others in the secondary who transferred out.

As we crunch the numbers, we think under 9.5 regular season wins might be a safe bet for Oregon. Tough opponents like Washington, Utah, and USC are projected to stand in the way of a 10-win campaign. 

Did you know that BetQL’s Model has gone 27-18-3 (60%) on Oregon O/U bets all-time? Subscribe now to get access to every college football best bet this season!

Florida State Seminoles u10 Regular Season Wins (-130, DraftKings)

BetQL's projection for Florida State's regular season anticipates them winning eight games. The Seminoles won't have it easy, facing some real challenges ahead. The season opener against LSU at a neutral site is sure to be a thriller, and tough away games at Clemson and Florida will put their skills to the test. Not to mention, a showdown at home against Miami is bound to keep us on the edge of our seats. They'll also be taking on Southern Miss, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Duke, and North Alabama at home, while hitting the road to face Boston College, Wake Forest, and Pittsburgh.

Last season, Florida State showed some serious promise, boasting an impressive 9-3 record in the regular season before clinching a memorable win over Florida State in the Cheez-It Bowl. This year, the team looks even more promising on paper. With the talented quarterback Jordan Travis leading the charge, their offense is nothing short of explosive. And guess what? The bulk of their solid defense is returning, making them a force to be reckoned with under the seasoned guidance of Coach Mike Norvell. The offense was a powerhouse last year, ranking 16th in scoring and 10th in total offense. We're expecting nothing less than elite performance this season. And hey, the defense is not lagging behind either - it's got the potential to reach elite levels too.

However, while Florida State has many things working in their favor, our BetQL model views them as slightly overvalued. We're projecting them to finish the season with an 8-4 record, mainly due to their tough schedule. Facing LSU, Clemson and Florida is no easy feat and squeezing two wins out of these formidable opponents while running the table otherwise might be a bit ambitious. That’s what they’d have to do to win 10 regular season games.

South Carolina Gamecocks u6.5 Regular Season Wins (-135, DraftKings)

Last season, under the guidance of Coach Shane Beamer, the Gamecocks finished with an 8-4 record before losing to Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl. But hold onto your hats because this season, BetQL projects a regression, predicting 4.5 regular season wins.

Let's talk about the schedule - it's no walk in the park. The Gamecocks face some formidable opponents right from the start. A tough matchup against North Carolina at a neutral site kicks things off, followed by a series of grueling battles against Georgia, Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Florida - that's a real test of strength and skill. Hosting Kentucky and Clemson at the end of the regular season and going up against Missouri, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt on the road make for some nail-biting matchups. And yes, they do have a couple of relatively easier games against Furman and Jacksonville State, but we can't take anything for granted in college football.

Now, let's address one of the key areas of concern - the offensive line. It's been a topic of uncertainty during the offseason, and all eyes will be on this unit as the season begins. With quarterback Spencer Rattler leading the charge and a talented group of playmakers around him, the o-line needs to step up, keep him protected, and open up holes for our running backs. It's a crucial component for their success.

And speaking of defense, there's one major thing that needs to be addressed - their performance against the run. Last season, they allowed an average of 192 yards per game. To compete in this competitive league, they need to tighten up their defense against the run and shut down opposing teams. 

Miami Hurricanes u7.5 Regular Season Wins (-125, BetMGM)

BetQL's projection for Miami's regular season is out, and we’re predicting the Hurricanes to win 5.5 regular season games. As we analyze the matchups, we see some significant challenges ahead for Miami in key games against Texas A&M, North Carolina, Clemson, NC State, Florida State, and Louisville. On the brighter side, they have several favorable matchups against Miami (OH), Bethune-Cookman, Temple, Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Boston College.

Last year, Miami had a tough season in Coach Mario Cristobal's first season, finishing with a 5-7 record. Now, looking at the roster, we find a mix of experienced upperclassmen and veteran transfers. However, the overall youth of the team suggests another rebuilding year might be on the horizon. In the betting world, we take this into account while assessing their chances for the 2023 season.

One crucial factor for our betting strategy is considering Miami's historical performance concerning turnovers. It has often influenced their games, and with a relatively young team this year, it might have an impact once again. As bettors, we'll keep a close eye on this aspect to make informed decisions.

Did you know that BetQL has gone 26-16-5 (61.9%) on Miami O/U bets all-time? Subscribe now to get access to every college football bet this season!

Oklahoma Sooners u9.5 Regular Season Wins (-125, DraftKings)

BetQL's got the inside scoop on Oklahoma's upcoming season, and we’re predicting the Sooners to secure eight regular season wins in their final Big 12 run. They have some tough matchups ahead before they make the leap to the SEC next year. Get ready for their traditional rivalry clash against Texas at a neutral site, and some challenging away games against Kansas, Oklahoma State, BYU, and TCU. On the flip side, they'll have the home advantage against Arkansas State, SMU, Iowa State, UCF, and West Virginia and they'll have to hit the road for battles against Tulsa and Cincinnati.

Last season under Coach Brent Venables, Oklahoma had a bit of a rollercoaster ride, finishing with an unexpected 6-7 record – not exactly the kind of performance they're used to. But hey, let's not forget about Dillon Gabriel, the former UCF transfer, who stepped up as the starting quarterback and delivered with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Unfortunately, they'll be missing the talented running back Eric Gray, who made a big impact with 1,366 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, as he's now off to the NFL.

The Sooners' defense made all the difference when it came to stopping the run. They went 0-6 when the opposition ran all over them for more than 200 yards.That's an area they'll need to tighten up this time around if they want to succeed. Again, it was surprising to see Venables’ defense get crushed like that. 

Our trusty model has them on track for an improvement, predicting an 8-4 record for Oklahoma. But just keep in mind, they are expected to fall short of the lofty 9.5 win total mark.

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Texas Longhorns u9.5 Regular Season Wins (+120, DraftKings)

Last year was a decent one for Texas, reaching an 8-4 record in the regular season before they fell to the Washington Huskies in the Alamo Bowl. We’re projecting the Longhorns to secure eight regular season wins this year once again. Buckle up for some thrilling matchups against tough opponents like Alabama, Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma in a neutral site game, BYU, TCU, and Texas Tech. And, of course, there are more games to bet on, including Rice, Wyoming, Houston, Kansas State, and Iowa State.

Let's dive into last season's performance under Coach Steve Sarkisian in his second year at the helm. Texas had a bit of a rough time in close games, going 2-5 in those nail-biters decided by just one possession. It's a lesson in how crucial it is to control the game, which they consistently didn't do.

Now, here's the deal – the Longhorns are facing some significant departures this year, with star running backs Bijan Robinson and Rocshon Johnson both making their way to the NFL. That's some talent walking out the door. The team will need to retool, but it's uncertain how it'll all play out, and that could impact their offense.

But, it's not all gloomy for Texas. The good news is they're welcoming back almost all of their starters, and their quarterback room is a hotbed of talent with Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning, both No. 1 recruits. Not to mention the bevy of five-star players in the receiving corps and backfield. So, we've got them predicted to hit eight regular season wins again, but it's doubtful they'll surpass last season's mark, making under 9.5 regular season wins the best bet.

Did you know that BetQL has gone 25-16-7 (60.98%) on Texas O/U bets all-time? Get access to every college football bet for the upcoming season now by subscribing!

Texas Tech Red Raiders u7.5 Regular Season Wins (-125, Caesars)

BetQL's model predicts that Texas Tech is in for a 6-6 regular season this year. Last season, Coach Joey McGuire took the reins and led the team to a solid 7-5 record before they clinched a victory over Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl. Not bad for a debut season, right? The Red Raiders are gearing up to take on some real contenders, facing off against Oregon, West Virginia, Baylor, Kansas State, BYU, TCU, Kansas, and Texas. But they've got some easier matchups in their favor, like Wyoming on the road, while hosting Tarleton, Houston, and UCF.

The heart of the Red Raiders' offense lies in the capable hands of quarterback Tyler Shough, who's entering his fifth year. He brings a wealth of experience and skill to the table, making the offense a force to be reckoned with. And get this – Texas Tech's aggressive play style is no joke; they attempted the most fourth-down plays in all of college football last season. That approach could either pay off or be a disaster, which is something to keep in mind. 

On the defensive side of things, Texas Tech faced some challenges last year, struggling to make a significant statistical impact in various categories. That's something they'll need to tighten up as they prepare for the new season. All in all, BetQL's model is calling it a moderate year for the Red Raiders, putting them at six wins and bowl eligible.

BetQL has gone 24-13-11 (64.86%) on Texas Tech’s 1H O/U bets for a total return of $875! Subscribe now to unlock every college football bet this season!

Colorado Buffaloes u3.5 Regular Season Wins (-125, BetMGM)

Oh, let me tell you, fellow bettors, we've got some interesting insights on Colorado football! Now, brace yourselves, because the outlook might not be as bright as you hope. BetQL is projecting Colorado to snatch just two regular season wins, not the rosiest prediction for the Buffaloes. They've got a tough road ahead, facing off against formidable teams like TCU, Nebraska, Colorado State, Oregon, USC, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona, Washington State, and Utah. Whew, talk about some fierce competition!

But hey, here's where it gets intriguing – Colorado is undoubtedly one of the most captivating teams to watch in the 2023 college football season, all thanks to the man himself, Coach Deion "Coach Prime" Sanders! This legend brought a much-needed boost of energy to the program, and oh boy, did he make some bold moves! In just one offseason, Sanders orchestrated a major roster overhaul, bringing in top-notch transfers like his own son, quarterback Shedeur Sanders, the talented Travis Hunter, the explosive Alton McCaskill IV, and the beastly Derrick McLendon II. These are some game-changers, no doubt about it!

Now, here's the real deal – last season, Colorado's offense had its struggles, but the defense? Oh boy, it was downright painful to watch. They ranked dead last in the whole country, giving up a whopping 44.5 points per game. But Coach Sanders isn't one to back down from a challenge. He's got big plans for the Buffaloes, and the buzz surrounding the team is hard to ignore. With all the transformative changes made to the roster, there's a sense of renewed hope for the future. But, you know what they say, Rome wasn't built in a day, and this tough schedule might make instant success a bit tricky.

The Buffaloes are gearing up for a rollercoaster ride in the 2023 season, and we can't wait to see how it all unfolds. Coach Prime's got some magic up his sleeve, and Colorado's journey is bound to be an intriguing one. The model is backing the under, though.

Air Force Falcons o8.5 Regular Season Wins (-104, FanDuel)

BetQL's projection for Air Force's regular season predicts an impressive 10 wins for the team. Their tough opponents include San Diego State, Navy and Boise State. They've got a whole lineup of other games to look forward to, including clashes with Robert Morris, Sam Houston at a neutral site, Utah State, Wyoming, Colorado State, Army at a neutral site, Hawaii, and UNLV.

Now, let's take a look back at last season – Air Force was impressive! They rocked the regular season with a commendable 9-3 record and sealed the deal with a spectacular victory in the Armed Forces Bowl, taking down Baylor. These Falcons know how to soar to success, racking up ten wins in three out of the last four years. And here's the secret to their triumph – their rushing game is an absolute powerhouse! They led the whole nation with a jaw-dropping average of 327 yards per game on the ground, thanks to their triple-option attack.

It's not just their offense that was impressive; Air Force's defense is a force to be reckoned with! They held their ground, allowing a meager 254 yards per game, all thanks to that rock-solid offense that kept the ball for over 36 minutes each game, the best mark in college football. Talk about domination! And guess what? They're bringing back eight starters on defense, signaling a strong outlook for the upcoming season. These Falcons are ready to soar to new heights.

Air Force's roster is stacked with experience and talent! Eight players have starting experience on both offense and defense, and four of them are preseason All Mountain West first-teamers – now, that's a recipe for success! But wait, there's more good news – they've got one of the easiest schedules in college football, with essentially back-to-back FCS games to start off the season.

Air Force is ready to take the college football world by storm, armed with their winning tradition, their unstoppable rushing game, and their elite defense. We're placing our bets on an outstanding 10-2 regular season record for these high-flying Falcons and this is my favorite regular season total option on the board right now!

Houston Cougars o4.5 Regular Season Wins (-135, BetMGM)

BetQL's projection for Houston's regular season predicts them winning six games in their first year in the Big 12 (after they went 7-5 in the 2022 regular season as a member of the American Athletic Conference). Houston's got some real challenges ahead – they'll be facing off against some tough opponents like TCU, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. They’ll also take on UTSA, Rice, Sam Houston, West Virginia, Cincinnati, and UCF.

Now, let's talk roster; Houston's been making some smart moves to bolster their team. They landed former Texas Tech QB Donovan Smith and former West Virginia RB Tony Mathis through the transfer portal. Smith's got all the makings of a star player, showing off his tremendous potential at Texas Tech. Watch out, folks; he's ready to make a name for himself on the field. Don’t be shocked if he works himself into the Heisman discussion. And don't even get us started on the receiving corps – they may be young, but they're loaded with talent. It's going to be an explosive offensive season once again.

Even though they're in a tougher league now, the Big 12, Houston's roster improvements have us believing they're better than the projected 4.5 wins. And let's talk about their head coach, Coach Holgorsen – he's a seasoned pro, leading the team to bowl games in three out of his four seasons. That's a track record of success that we can't ignore! Impressive, right? And get this – the Cougars have made it to a bowl game in a whopping 15 of the last 18 seasons. That's some serious consistency.

Houston has all the ingredients for a successful season – a potent offense, a determined defense, and a coaching staff that knows how to get the job done. They're ready to make their mark in the Big 12 and show the world that they mean business. We're putting our bets on the Cougars to rise up and establish themselves as a force to be reckoned with in this new football landscape. Bet over 4.5 regular season wins!

Virginia Cavaliers o3 Regular Season Wins (-110, BetMGM)

BetQL's projection for Virginia's regular season predicts them winning five games. The Cavaliers are gearing up for some intense matchups against tough teams like Tennessee at a neutral site, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, Miami, and Louisville on the road. They'll also be taking on James Madison, Boston College, William & Mary, Georgia Tech, Duke, and Virginia Tech at home. 

Last season, things got off to a rocky start for Coach Tony Elliott in his debut year. The team finished with a 3-7 record, and to make matters worse, the season was cut short due to the tragic on-campus shooting deaths of three players. 

Virginia's offense is undergoing some changes. With long-time QB Brennan Armstrong moving on, it's time for Monmouth transfer Tony Muskett to step up. And don't forget the receiver and offensive line positions – they're getting revamped too. But fear not,, because the defense is where it's at. Six out of nine returning starters are expected to hold the fort down on the defensive side of the ball, and that's some serious firepower.

Coach Elliott's offensive background didn't hit the ground running last year, but this time around, things are looking up. A new quarterback, a rebuilt o-line, and fresh receivers – it's a recipe for success! Plus, Muskett's got the experience and passing skills to fit right in.

The x-factor is definitely running back Kobe Pace, who is joining the team from Clemson. He's a game-changer, and his time with Elliott at Clemson has us excited for a more effective running game. No more relying solely on the quarterbacks for rushing duties!

So, it's going to be a tough ride, with some challenging road games. But fear not – on their home field, Virginia's got an edge against James Madison and William & Mary. Plus, they're ready to compete fiercely against Boston College on the road, and they'll give Georgia Tech, Duke, and Virginia Tech a run for their money at home. BetQL's projecting five wins for the Cavaliers and we're betting on them to exceed that three-game total.

Arizona State Sun Devils o4.5 Regular Season Wins (-115, FanDuel)

The forecast for Arizona State's regular season has us eyeing a potential 6.5 wins. They're facing some major challenges against powerhouse opponents like Oklahoma State, USC, Washington, Utah, UCLA, and Oregon. They'll also be clashing with Southern Utah, Fresno State, California, Colorado, Washington State, and in-state rival Arizona.

Now, let's talk about the Sun Devils' previous campaign – it was tough, ending with a 3-9 overall record. But they’re now undergoing a transition and coaching change. They're gearing up for a brand-new era under the leadership of their 33-year-old head coach, Kenny Dillingham. This offensive mastermind has quite the track record at Memphis, Auburn, Florida State, and Oregon, making him the perfect fit.

The quarterback situation is intriguing. Emory Jones might have moved on to Cincinnati, but Trenton Bourguet is returning. He was solid in limited playing time last year, working alongside Jones. Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne is also on the squad. But, there's more excitement – highly-touted recruit Jaden Rashada shook things up by changing his commitment from Florida to ASU, adding even more firepower to the quarterback room. With all this talent and depth, I wouldn't be surprised to see all three quarterbacks on the field at various times this year.

But what about the defense, you ask? They've made some solid improvements through the transfer portal, showing their dedication to beefing up their game on that side of the ball.

As we head into the new season, you should be excited about the Sun Devils. The quarterback competition and defensive enhancements add to the anticipation, creating a buzz around the program. We're expecting the Sun Devils to earn their bowl eligibility with those 6.5 regular season wins, well above their 4.5-win total.

BetMGM College Football Insights: Regular Season Win Totals

 Most Bet Overs

1. Colorado 3.5 (+105)
2. Michigan State 5.5 (+135)
3. Kansas State 8 (-125)
4. Texas 9.5 (-135)
5. Iowa 8.5 (-105)

 Most Bet Unders

1. Kansas 6 (+100)
2. Nebraska 6.5 (-110)
3. Cincinnati 5 (+100)
4. Oklahoma 9.5 (-115)
5. Wake Forest 6.5 (-125)