Entering this game at Southern Miss, Tulane had a 1-1 record after beating Southern Alabama 37-17 and falling to Ole Miss by the score of 37-20. Meanwhile, Southern Miss also entered the matchup at 1-1 after beating Alcorn State 40-14 and then getting crushed by Florida State 66-13. Without using BetQL, you might not have been aware of much of a mismatch this actually was.
BetQL listed Tulane (-8) as a 5-star value and projected them to win by 21 points, a massive 13-point difference from the closing line. The final score ended up being Tulane 21, Southern Miss 3!
As you can see below from our Team, Skill Matchup, Offense and Defense grades, this wasn't much of an even fight despite the matching 1-1 records. Heading into this matchup, Tulane coach Willie Fritz was 33 - 14 ATS as a favorite, which is a stellar track record.
Not only that, but 67% of total tickets backed Tulane in this spot as well as 77% of total money, signaling that they were a sharp play.
Tulane out-rushed Southern Miss 128-to-25 and out-gained them 5.6 to 3.2 yards per play in a defensive battle. Tulane running backs Makhi Hughes (14 carries, 83 yards) and Ashaad Clayton-Johnson (12 carries, 66 yards) were efficient for the Green Wave and quarterback Kai Horton threw for two touchdowns and rushed for one more, accounting for all three of his team's scores. In all, this was a very easy win in a mismatch that our model identified.
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