No. 15 Louisville vs. No. 4 FSU: Best Bets For ACC Championship

Louisville vs. Florida State: Best Bets For ACC Championship

Conference Championship weekend is here in college football, so the end of the season is getting closer and closer. It's the money-making season here at BetQL, and we are going to continue to crush it. This week features several marquee matchups, and one of those is Louisville vs. Florida State. BetQL has you covered for everything college football, so let's dive right into this contest.

The 10-2 Cardinals and 12-0 Seminoles meet in the ACC championship game on Saturday evening. Florida State is a -2.5 favorite with the total in this game sitting at 48.5. The game will be broadcast on ABC at 8 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

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#15 Louisville vs. #4 Florida State: Live Odds

Louisville Cardinals Outlook

The Cardinals come into this matchup looking to avenge a disappointing loss in Week 13. Despite being a -7.5 favorite, Louisville fell to in-state rival Kentucky, 38-31, thanks to three turnovers. It'll now face a ranked opponent for just the third time this season.

Offensively, the Cardinals will lean heavily on their run game with Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo in the backfield. Jordan has rushed for 1,076 yards on the ground this season and ranks 20th in the nation in yards per carry with 6.4. Guerendo has only amassed 639 total rushing yards, but isn't far behind Jordan in yards per carry with 6.1. As a team, Louisville is averaging 170.2 yards per game on the ground (48).

Both backs are extremely explosive, which is part of what's led to the team's offensive success this year. Jordan leads the country with seven carries for 30-plus yards this season, while Guerendo has three. They are also two of just nine players to have a carry of 70+ yards, with Jordan having two.

The Cardinals passing game, led by QB Jack Plummer, is also solid, ranking 51st with 246.8 yards per game. However, defending against the pass is FSU's biggest strength. The Seminoles lead the nation in opponent competition percentage (47.3%) and rank 26th in passing yards allowed per game (276.7). They've also only allowed eight passing touchdowns this season, tied for the second-best mark.

Florida State Seminoles Outlook

The Seminoles have a whole lot more than just an ACC title riding on this game. A win on Saturday and they move to 13-0, which would all but force the CFP committee to give them a spot in the playoffs. A loss on Saturday and there is no way a one-loss FSU team without QB Jordan Travis is getting in over nearly any other one-loss team.

QB Tate Rodemaker made his first start last week, taking over for the injured Travis. His numbers weren't great, finishing with just 134 yards in the air and no touchdowns, but he also took care of the ball with zero interceptions. If he can do that again on Saturday, FSU should win this game.

FSU's receiving corps is among the best in the nation with Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson and Jaheim Bell as the Seminoles' go-to targets. Coleman's 11 receiving touchdowns are tied for the third-most in the country and, as a team, its 8.6 yards per attempt is tied for 20th. However, those numbers are reflective of the work Travis has done this season.

Without Travis, I would expect FSU to rely more heavily on RB Trey Benson and the ground game. Benson rushed 19 times for 95 yards and three touchdowns last weekend against Florida and he'll have his work cut out for him this weekend. Louisville has the 12th-best run defense in terms of yards per game, giving up just 96.75. The Cardinals are also only allowing 3.2 yards per carry, which ranks 15th.

Louisville vs. Florida State Best Bet

My Pick: Florida State -2.5 (-110, BetMGM)

The Seminoles' run defense and its ability to slow down Jordan and Guerendo is my biggest concern for FSU. It has allowed 10 carries of 30+ yards, which is good news for Louisville's explosive RBs. That said, FSU beat LSU, Boston College and Syracuse, whose run games all rank higher than the Cardinals'.

The Seminoles also have better marks in turnover margin, sacks/TFL and red-zone conversion. FSU is the better team and should win this game. The wild card is the unknown surrounding Rodemaker and his limited experience. Still, I'm confident enough in the talent and coaching around him for the Seminoles to cover -2.5.