Karpuc’s Corner: Week 1 College Football Picks

College football is finally back and each week, I’ll be detailing my favorite bets. Not only that, but I’ll be tracking all of these in the BetQL app (just like you can) in an attempt to be fully transparent throughout the season. Keep scrolling for my favorite plays of the week and be sure to take advantage of some of the exclusive sportsbook offers that I included below. Also, if you don't already have a BetQL account and want a free 5-star pick from behind the paywall, shoot over your phone number below and we'll text it to you.

FADE THE PUBLIC: ARMY +2.5 (-110) VS. COASTAL CAROLINA

The 11-win Coastal Carolina Chanticleers were the feel-good story of 2021, but that fame led to numerous departures in the transfer portal. While star quarterback Grayson McCall is back, he’s one of just six starters who will return on both sides of the ball. Nine starters are gone on the defensive end, which is a very troubling aspect for CCU in this particular matchup. Overall, I’m not a believer in their defense whatsoever and can’t trust that this is a plug-and-play type of spread offensive system that new contributors can simply step into and produce in.

Army is coming off a nine-win year and will feature one of the best option attacks in Division I. Last season, they amassed a ridiculous 280.6 rushing yards per game and this system can give an inexperienced defense fits. Speaking of defense, the Black Knights ranked 15th in Total Defense last year and return most of their key contributors. Keep an eye on 6’7 linebacker Andre Carter II, who ranked 2nd in the NCAA in sacks (15.5) last year. He should be the best player on the field on either team and has game-breaking talent. At the time of this writing, 60% of public bets have backed Coastal Carolina per BetQL’s Public Betting Dashboard, which I think is worth a fade.

BACK THE SHARPS: FLORIDA ATLANTIC -4 (-110) AT OHIO

In their 43-13 Week 0 win over Charlotte, Florida Atlantic amassed 482 yards compared to 279 by their opponents. Most notable was their rushing yards edge: 218 to 62. FAU picked up 26 first downs compared to just 11 by Charlotte and also led the time of possession by a 35:25 ratio. Quarterback N’Kosi Perry went 16-of-22 for 256 yards and a touchdown, leading the Owls, who went 8-of-16 on third down with the help of running back Larry McCammon III, who carried the ball 14 times for 118 yards and a score. This is clearly a small sample size, but there was clearly a lot to like about FAU’s performance on both sides of the football. 

Ohio is coming off of a 3-9 campaign and returns no one that will turn heads on offense and a defense that struggled mightily last year. After searching and searching, I can’t find any positive outlook that would sway me off of this particular pick. Per BetQL’s Sharp Betting Dashboard, a ridiculous 95% of total money wagered is on FAU to cover. I’m going to follow the money and agree with expert bettors on this one.

UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK: FLORIDA +125 ML VS. UTAH

I can’t wait to watch Anthony Richardson carve up opposing defenses this season. Florida’s dual-threat quarterback will be one of the most electric players in college football and The Swamp will be rocking in support of the Gators in this opener. Head coach Billy Napier did some work in the transfer portal and attracted a number of stellar SEC recruits to join his program in the hopes of returning it to glory. Utah has gotten a lot of respect in the preseason, and rightfully so, but they have to travel across the country into extremely hostile territory and I will usually side with SEC talent over Pac-12 talent. 

UF holds the longest active season-opener home win streak in the FBS (32 games) and hasn’t lost in this situation since 1990. I am a sucker for trends, so it’s very hard for me to overlook that one. Plus, this is one of BetQL’s best bets of the week, which is icing on the cake. The model is giving Florida a 54.11% chance to win.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: LOUISVILLE -4.5 (-110) AT SYRACUSE

I’ve been on the record numerous times in BetQL articles and the BetQL Daily Boost Podcast about the Heisman appeal of Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham, and this is our first opportunity to watch him go to work in 2022. He racked up 1,031 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns on the ground last season, so Syracuse’s inexperienced defensive front is going to have a very difficult time dealing with him both as a passer and a rusher. 

Yes, this is a new year, but the Cardinals smoked the Orange 41-3 last year as Cunningham shredded them and Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader couldn’t do much of anything. While some skill position players have changed on both sides, it’s very difficult for me to not get behind UL in this spot. Four starters on the Louisville offensive line are back and the program added a plethora of talent defensively from the transfer portal. Give me the Cardinals to easily cover and for Cunningham to make a major statement in Week 1.