2023 CFP National Championship: No. 3 TCU vs. No. 1 Georgia Prediction

2023 CFP National Championship Preview

Monday’s College Football Playoff title game features one team that most figured would be here and one team that virtually nobody saw coming before the season. It’ll be the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs trying to repeat as national champions against the No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs. Not surprisingly, the Bulldogs are expected to triumph for the second straight season, as they are favored by 13 points in Monday’s championship game.

Georgia Bulldogs Preview

The Bulldogs better be breathing a huge sigh of relief after their semifinal victory over Ohio State. Stetson Bennett led a brilliant touchdown drive in the final minutes, but Georgia still needed a missed field goal by Ohio State on the final play of the game to win it. Kirby Smart’s team has now won 16 games in a row, last losing in last year’s SEC championship game. That remains their only loss in their last 33 games.

Of course, while the Bulldogs are a perfect 14-0 SU, Georgia is just 7-7 ATS this season after failing to cover in three of their last four games. In their defense, the Bulldogs have had massive lines to cover for most of the season. The 13-point spread for Monday’s game is actually small by their standards, and the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS when they have been favored by fewer than 20 points this season. Also, despite being just 6-8 O/U in 2022, Georgia has hit the over five times in the last seven games, as the Bulldogs have scored at least 40 points in four of those seven games, while LSU and Ohio State combined for 71 points in the last two games against an otherwise dominant Georgia defense.

TCU Horned Frogs Preview

At the start of the season, critics were at best indifferent about the Horned Frogs. It took a 4-0 start, including a 31-point win over Oklahoma, to put TCU into the top 25 and they’ve been climbing ever since. Despite falling to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game, they ran the table during the regular season, knocking off eight bowl-eligible teams in the process. 

Not only has TCU gone 13-1 under Sonny Dykes during his first season, but they are an impressive 10-3-1 ATS. They’ve won three games in which they were the underdogs, including that wild semifinal victory over Michigan. While there’s no denying the Horned Frogs got some fortunate bounces in that game, they ran the ball effectively against a stout Michigan defense and were able to force a few timely turnovers. Even without Heisman finalist Max Duggan having his best game, TCU scored 51 points against one of the best defenses in the country.

No. 3 TCU vs. No. 1 Georgia Prediction

There is certainly hope for the Horned Frogs after their performance in the semifinals. They have represented themselves well and earned the right to play for a championship. But facing Georgia is far different from facing Michigan or running the table in a Big 12 conference that went 2-6 in bowl games, including TCU’s win. 

In fact, from Georgia’s perspective, facing the Horned Frogs should be easier than facing Ohio State. The Bulldogs could be poised to dominate in all three phases against TCU following their close call in the semifinals. Keep in mind that Kirby Smart is 26-11 ATS after Georgia loses ATS and 18-6 ATS whenever the Bulldogs have failed to cover twice in their last three games. All signs point to Georgia being able to win and cover on Monday night.

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