Conference USA Championship: Western Kentucky vs. UTSA Odds, Best Bets, Prediction

Conference USA Championship Preview

Championship weekend in college football gets started on Friday night with the Conference USA Championship Game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the UTSA Roadrunners. These two teams put on a show when they met in October with the Roadrunners winning a shootout 52-46. There could be more of the same on Friday when the two teams meet in the Alamodome, which is UTSA’s home stadium. However, it’s the Hilltoppers who are considered one-point favorites with the over/under set at 72 points.

UTSA Roadrunners Preview

The Roadrunners have been arguably the biggest surprise of the college football season. The program has only existed since 2011 and has only been to one bowl game. Yet, UTSA began the season 11-0 before losing to North Texas last week. If they can bounce back quickly, the Roadrunners will have a chance to win the first conference championship in program history.

The UTSA offense has been balanced and consistent all season. Running back Sincere McCormack has averaged over 100 yards per game and scored 12 touchdowns on the ground while getting plenty of help from quarterback Frank Harris, who is also a capable runner. Harris has also been sound throwing the ball, completing over 66% of his passes and limiting himself to just five interceptions. He’s also used his mobility to limit the number of sacks he’s taken this year to 12. The Roadrunners also have three receivers with at least 600 receiving yards this season. That means teams can’t focus their efforts on just one player, allowing the Roadrunners to score at least 30 points in eight games and score more than 40 points in five games.

Defensively, the Roadrunners have also been solid all season. UTSA has limited teams to 22.2 points per game, keeping two shutouts and holding half of their opponents under 20 points. Outside of linebacker Clarence Hicks, the Roadrunners don’t have a lot of standout players on that side of the ball. They can bend at times, which is why five teams have scored at least 28 points against them, including Western Kentucky earlier this year and UTSA’s last two opponents.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Preview

Following their loss to UTSA in October, the Hilltoppers were 1-4 and going nowhere quick. However, Western Kentucky has rattled off seven straight wins, including a 53-21 win over Marshall last week in a game that decided the C-USA East Division. For what it’s worth, WKU’s losses this year have come to the likes of Army, Indiana, and Michigan State, so it’s hard to complain about their losses too much. Plus, the Hilltoppers bring plenty of momentum into their first conference title game since 2016 when they won their second of back-to-back Conference USA titles.

The arm of Bailey Zappe is what has carried the Hilltoppers all season. Zappe came up just 32 yards shy of reaching 5,000 passing yards during the regular season, making WKU the best passing team in the country. To be fair, the Hilltoppers barely average 100 rushing yards per game, so they are rather one-dimensional offensively. However, Zappe has four receivers who amassed over 600 receiving yards and two with over 1,100 receiving yards, so the Hilltoppers aren't short on options. As a result, Western Kentucky has scored a minimum of 31 points in every game this year, even in losses to Indiana and Michigan State. They also rank top-10 nationally with 43.3 points per game and have scored over 50 points in back-to-back weeks.

Of course, the Hilltoppers have had more than their fair share of problems defensively this season. Just look at their loss to UTSA earlier this year when the Roadrunners scored 52 points and racked up over 550 yards of total offense. However, the Hilltoppers have been much better defensively late in the season. They’ve allowed 21 points or less in all seven of their games during their current winning streak. Even a bowl-bound team like Marshall was held in check last week by the WKU defense.

Conference USA Championship Game Prediction

While this has been a dream season for UTSA, the Hilltoppers present some problems for them. The WKU defense appears to be coming around while Zappe and the passing attack will be difficult to contain. However, the Roadrunners are the more balanced team and will have their home fans behind them. In a virtual toss-up, that should be enough for UTSA to be victorious in the Conference USA Championship Game.

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