The Best Values To Make (And Win) The 2022 College Football Playoff

BetQL's CFP projections also reveal the worst betting values to win a national championship

College football is almost here! One of the first things we want to do in the betting world is look at college football futures odds to see if we can find some value before the season starts.

With that in mind, BetQL has simulated the 2022 college football season 10,000 times, and we have our projections on which teams will are the most likely to not only make the College Football Playoff, but to also win the national title. Armed with that information, we can list our projections alongside sportsbooks' lines to find the value for playoff and championship futures.

Let's take a look at BetQL's projections and the notable teams with the highest differences between our probabilities and DraftKings' odds. There is some great value on the board, so make sure to take advantage and join us for a free trial at BetQL for another profitable college football season!

College football is almost here! One of the first things we want to do in the betting world is look at college football futures odds to see if we can find some value before the season starts.

With that in mind, BetQL has simulated the 2022 college football season 10,000 times, and we have our projections on which teams will are the most likely to not only make the College Football Playoff, but to also win the national title. Armed with that information, we can list our projections alongside sportsbooks' lines to find the value for playoff and championship futures.

Let's take a look at BetQL's projections and the notable teams with the highest differences between our probabilities and DraftKings' odds. There is some great value on the board, so make sure to take advantage and join us for a free trial at BetQL for another profitable college football season!

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BetQL's 2022 College Football Playoff Projections

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Best Values To Make 2022 College Football Playoff

Cincinnati Bearcats; Best odds: +3500 at FanDuel

The Bearcats were the first non-Power 5 school to ever make the College Football Playoff in 2021. They cruised to an undefeated record and were selected as the fourth CFP team before getting promptly obliterated by the Alabama Crimson Tide. We won't even focus on that because it was expected, but nevertheless, it was an impressive feat that Cincinnati accomplished last season. So the question is now: Can they do it again?

While the team lost starting QB Desmond Ridder and a plethora of great starters on defense, this team still has the talent necessary to make a CFP run. In order for them to actually make the playoff, they will certainly need to go undefeated again. While it will be much tougher to do this season than last, you can count on head coach Luke Fickell to have his guys ready.

If Cincinnati can beat Arkansas to open the season, it would be a huge step toward making the CFP. It will be an extremely tough game for the Bearcats with what they have lost and all the transition, but if they win, you can expect those CFP odds to shrink considerably.

We show a distinct advantage here with Cincinnati, as we believe they are far more likely to reach the CFP than +3500 odds imply. We give them a 38.3% chance to make it, whereas this line is giving them about a 2.7% chance. That's a massive difference, and one we can take advantage of.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish; Best odds: +1500 at FanDuel

Not only does our model see some value in this bet, but I do as well. Notre Dame is a team in transition after Brian Kelly left for LSU, but new head coach Marcus Freeman has done a phenomenal job recruiting players to his program. Talent-wise, there’s no reason why this can’t and shouldn’t be another double-digit-win season. We also know the Fighting Irish always tend to be in the CFP mix and that is what I am banking on here.

Notre Dame's losses last season came against Cincinnati and an Oklahoma State team that could’ve won the Big 12 title. In 2020, the losses were to Clemson in the ACC Championship and in the CFP against eventual national champion Alabama. The Irish play some really good teams each year, they just have to beat them, starting with Ohio State this season in Week 1.

Our projection gives Notre Dame a 17.1% chance to make the CFP, while these +1500 odds at FanDuel imply a 6.1% chance. That's a great value overall, and a difference of over 10 percentage points. I'll take that any day of the week and put some cash down on the Fighting Irish to make the CFP at 15-to-1.

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Best Bet To Make 2022 College Football Playoff

Georgia; Best odds: -115 at DraftKings

While we don't have this as the highest value on our projections, I think getting the reigning champions at -115 odds to just make the playoffs is some good value. Even with all the superstar losses on defense, and even with a few key parts gone on offense, Georgia should be favored in all 12 regular-season games. They don't have an overwhelming schedule, and talent-wise, very few teams are going to be able to hang with them. Oregon, Florida, and Tennessee may be the closest ones, but they will be favored in all of these games. It’s going to take something catastrophic for this team to lose twice this year, and I just don't see it happening.

When did Georgia lose twice in the regular season under Kirby Smart when they didn't face Alabama in the regular season? That would be all the way back in 2016 when the Bulldogs were rebuilding right after he took over. If you took the Alabama loss out of the 2020 schedule for Georgia, they would most likely be on a run of five straight years of no more than one regular-season loss. Along with missing Alabama this season, there’s no Texas A&M, no Ole Miss, and no Arkansas or LSU. The road games at South Carolina, Missouri, Mississippi State and Kentucky are all manageable games they should win.

They might lose once this season, but they can still make the CFP if that happens. I see nothing less than another trip to the SEC Championship with the CFP on the line, and they have proven they can win. We give Georgia a 48.8% chance to make the CFP, while DraftKings essentially gives them a 53.5% chance. We may be losing a bit of value here, but it's still a pretty strong bet.

MORE: BEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL WIN TOTAL BETS BY CONFERENCE

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Worst Value To Make 2022 College Football Playoff

Alabama; Best odds: -255 at DraftKings

Look, we all know Alabama is a powerhouse that will almost certainly have another great season on their way to another title game appearance for Nick Saban and Co. It is very likely to happen, and that is why sportsbooks are making you pay tremendous juice on these bets. But this article is all about value, and we see very little to no value here with the Crimson Tide.

What happens if Bryce Young gets banged up for part of the season? What if the receiving corps didn’t simply reload with more superstar talent, and there are some growing pains? What if Texas A&M (or another SEC team) rises up and becomes the team to beat in 2022? There are so many questions here that need to be answered, and I don't know about you, but I certainly am not comfortable laying -255 odds on just about anything, especially a future bet where your money is tied up for months. Alabama could go 12-0, and they’ll be favored in every game to be sure, but is the reward worth the risk?

We give Alabama a 43.6% chance to make the CFP, which is a far cry from what this -255 line is saying. Those odds imply that they have a 71.8% chance to get there, which is a huge 28.3% loss of value, according to our projections.

The key lesson to learn here: Even if it is likely to happen, don't lay down that kind of juice. There is simply no value, and you are risking far more than you can win.

MORE: THESE GROUP OF 5 TEAMS ARE GREAT VALUES TO WIN THEIR CONFERENCE

BetQL's 2022 College Football Title Projections

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Best Value To Win 2022 National Championship

Ohio State Buckeyes; Best odds: +320 at BetMGM

The Buckeyes will be massive favorites this season in just about every game they play, and for good reason. There is simply no excuse for Ohio State to not win the Big Ten, get to the College Football Playoff and have a shot to win a second national title in the CFP era. They should be good enough to be a double-digit favorite against everyone they face in the regular season, including Michigan, even though there might be one hiccup in there that we don't expect.

Ohio State starts off with a tough challenge against Notre Dame, but they should be well-equipped to handle that, especially at home. They face Wisconsin and Iowa from the Big Ten West, but both of those games are at home as well. Michigan State is on the road, and there’s a run of three road games in four weeks including Penn State and Maryland before the clincher revenge game against Michigan. They might have one loss sprinkled in there on a bad day, but I don't see this team losing two games.

BetMGM has them at +320 to win the national championship. We think that is excellent value for a team as good as OSU. We give them a 28.39% chance to win the natty, while this line is giving them a 23.81% chance. There is value there, and we would jump on it while we can. This could even be a great option for your risk-free bet at BetMGM (offer below).

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Worst Value To Win 2022 National Championship

Alabama Crimson Tide; Best odds: +190 at BetMGM

Again, this goes back to the value aspect. Yes, Alabama could steamroll through their season and make the championship game, and win it too. But are you really willing to take them vs. the field at just +190 odds? That isn't a whole lot of return on investment for a team that has as many questions as the Crimson Tide, or one that has as tough of a schedule.

Just take a look at some of these road games that Alabama has to engage in this season: Texas will be dangerous at home, even if you don't want to believe it; Tennessee will have a great offense that should be able to put up big points on anyone; LSU has a real head coach now with a talented, but flawed roster in his first year; Ole Miss will feature the same explosive offense that they always do, even with some new faces; and Arkansas seems to be the biggest underdog play to win the title this season. Those are just the road games.

No way am I laying money down with all of this to go through for +190. Just isn't enough bang for your buck. We give Alabama a 13.94% chance to win the title, while these odds imply a whopping 34.48% chance. That's a difference of 20.54%, so no thank you on that value loss.

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