College Football Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks For Week 5

BetQL star ratings and key trends for this week's top college football games

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The college football season rolls along to Week 5, and BetQL is your source for NCAAF best bets, live college football public bets, live NCAAF sharp data, college football line movement and historical betting trends in addition to our NCAAF articles that cover the sport from top to bottom. Scroll down to see all the best bets and key betting trends for this week's top matchups.

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No. 15 Washington vs. UCLA

ATS Record: Washington 4-0, UCLA 2-2

O/U Record: Washington 3-1, UCLA 3-1

The Pac-12 will get the spotlight on Friday night with the added bonus of two undefeated teams meeting at the Rose Bowl. Washington has clearly been the more impressive team thus far, covering all four games, including wins over Michigan State and Stanford. UCLA, meanwhile, hasn’t beaten a quality opponent and barely escaped with a one-point win over South Alabama a couple of weeks ago. But the Bruins have a good omen, as Chip Kelly is 6-0 ATS during his time at UCLA after the Bruins hit the over in back-to-back games, which they’ve done in wins over South Alabama and Colorado.

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No. 4 Michigan vs. Iowa

ATS Record: Michigan 2-2, Iowa 2-2

O/U Record: Michigan 0-3-1, Iowa 1-3

These two met in the Big Ten Championship Game last season with the Wolverines winning, 42-3. However, Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes have been victorious the last four times Michigan has visited Iowa City. While these teams don’t meet every year, the Wolverines haven’t won a road game against Iowa since 2001. Keep in mind that Iowa has allowed 23 total points in four games. Of course, the Hawkeyes are also averaging just 17 points per game offensively, so they’re going to have to force the Wolverines into a defensive slugfest to have a chance. That won’t be easy with Michigan scoring over 50 points in three of its first four games.

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No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Ole Miss

ATS Record: Kentucky 3-1, Ole Miss 2-2

O/U Record: Kentucky 1-3, Ole Miss 1-3

Both teams are undefeated and highly ranked, making this the perfect time for the Wildcats and Rebels to play for just the third time in the last decade. Ole Miss has won the last two meetings, although only by a combined four points. Of course, Kentucky has beaten Florida already this season, so the Wildcats have proven themselves with a quality win. Meanwhile, the best win for Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss team this year is a 42-0 blowout over Georgia Tech or perhaps last week’s 35-27 win over Tulsa. That will make this the biggest test of the season for the Rebels, who have shockingly allowed just 10 points per game and have one of the nation’s best defenses, at least on paper.

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No. 18 Oklahoma vs. TCU

ATS Record: Oklahoma 2-2, TCU 3-0

O/U Record: Oklahoma 1-2-1, TCU 2-1

As has become customary, the Sooners lost to Kansas State last week, so Brent Venables has to find a way to bounce back from a loss for the first time in his head coaching career. The good news is that Oklahoma has won eight in a row against TCU, including a 21-point victory last season. But the Sonny Dykes era is off to a promising start with the Horned Frogs holding serve against a tough SMU team last week, 42-34. Dykes certainly has the TCU offense humming. However, the Sooners are 11-2 over the last three years when facing teams that average at least 31 points per game, so Oklahoma won’t be afraid of getting into a shootout if it comes to that.

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Purdue vs. No. 21 Minnesota

ATS Record: Purdue 1-3, Minnesota 4-0

O/U Record: Purdue 3-1, Minnesota 2-2

P.J. Fleck has the Gophers 4-0, ranked in the top-25, and looking like a serious contender in the Big Ten West. The Golden Gophers have even covered all four games, including a 34-7 road win over Michigan State last week when they were only favored by three points. Both Fleck and Jeff Brohm arrived at their current job in 2017 with Fleck and the Gophers winning four of the five head-to-head games between the two. In fact, Purdue hasn’t won in Minneapolis since 2007. Even worse, Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell didn’t play last week, so his status could be in doubt this week. The Boilermakers are still averaging 311 passing yards per game, although Fleck is 6-0 ATS at Minnesota against teams that average at least 275 passing yards per game.

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Texas Tech vs. No. 25 Kansas State

ATS Record: Texas Tech 2-2, Kansas State 3-1

O/U Record: Texas Tech 3-1, Kansas State 1-3

Both teams are coming off huge upsets over ranked teams in their Big 12 opener, which means the winner of this game can be considered an early contender to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. Last year’s meeting between these teams was a tight, 25-24, game that Kansas State won. That win gave the Wildcats 10 wins in their last 11 games against the Red Raiders. While new K-State quarterback Adrian Martinez has had some ups and downs thus far, the Wildcats have committed just one turnover in four games. More importantly, they are 11-2 ATS under Chris Klieman following a game in which they didn’t turn it over, which was the case in last week’s win over Oklahoma. 

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Oregon State vs. No. 12 Utah

ATS Record: Oregon State 4-0, Utah 3-1

O/U Record: Oregon State 2-2, Utah 2-2

Utah’s five-game winning streak over the Beavers ended last year when Oregon State won, 42-34. But the Beavers haven’t won in Salt Lake City since 1968, so this would be a historic win if OSU can pull it off. Keep in mind the Beavers played a tight game with USC, another Pac-12 favorite, last week, ultimately losing, 17-14. However, Utah has been at another level defensively in recent weeks, allowing just 6 rushing yards against Arizona State last week. Also, Kyle Whittingham is 24-5 ATS when Utah allows 125 rushing yards or less in three straight games, which is something the Utes have done while holding their last three opponents to just 27 total points.

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No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 20 Arkansas

ATS Record: Alabama 3-1, Arkansas 2-2

O/U Record: Alabama 1-3, Arkansas 3-1

These teams meet every season, although not since 2006 has Arkansas managed to topple the Crimson Tide. In fairness, last year’s 42-35 contest was one of the closer games in this series over the last 15 years. Nick Saban’s team has covered 40-plus spreads three times this season, although they barely escaped with a road win over Texas a few weeks ago and now the Tide has to hit the road again. The Hogs, meanwhile, are coming off a tough, 23-21, loss to Texas A&M last week. They’ve also lost back-to-back games ATS and are conceding 25.5 points per game. Considering the competition they’ve faced in those games, stopping reigning Heisman winner Bryce Young could be a challenge for them.

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No. 9 Oklahoma State vs. No. 16 Baylor

ATS Record: Oklahoma State 2-1, Baylor 3-1

O/U Record: Oklahoma State 2-1, Baylor 2-2

Oklahoma State has won the last two regular-season meetings with the Bears, although Baylor beat the Cowboys when it mattered most in last year’s Big 12 Championship Game. Based on each team’s play early in the season, this could end up being a preview of this year’s Big 12 title game. The Bears are coming off a road win over Iowa State in which they were actually an underdog. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have cruised to a 3-0 start but haven’t faced a true test. Baylor certainly qualifies as a test for Oklahoma State, especially since Dave Aranda is now 7-1 SU at Baylor when the Bears play a team that outscores its opponents by at least 10 points per game.

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No. 22 Wake Forest vs. No. 23 Florida State

ATS Record: Wake Forest 3-1, Florida State 3-1

O/U Record: Wake Forest 3-1, Florida State 2-2

Those stories about Florida State’s demise have been over-exaggerated, as the Seminoles are 4-0 and back in the Top 25. They are also 2-0 in ACC play after a 30-point blowout of Boston College over the weekend. Mike Norvell is 20-8 coming off a win over a conference foe, and 10-5 when coming off a home win over a conference rival. However, the Seminoles have lost their last two games with Wake Forest, although both came on the road. The Demon Deacons are also the reigning Atlantic Division champs and went toe-to-toe with Clemson last week before losing in double overtime.

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No. 17 Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State

ATS Record: Texas A&M 2-2, Mississippi State 2-1-1

O/U Record: Texas A&M 0-4, Mississippi State 2-2

Since Texas A&M joined the SEC, these teams have split their 10 head-to-head games evenly. The road team has won four of those 10 games, including each of the last two seasons. In more recent history, Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies have done well to bounce back from that loss to Appalachian State with back-to-back wins over Miami and Arkansas. Texas A&M has gotten the job done with defense, helping the Aggies stay under in all four games. That could be tough against Mike Leach’s air-raid offense. However, the Bulldogs suffered their only loss of the season in a game in which the point total failed to reach the over/under.

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LSU vs. Auburn

ATS Record: LSU 3-1, Auburn 0-4

O/U Record: LSU 1-3, Auburn 2-2

Neither of these SEC powerhouses is ranked, but this is still one of the best rivalries in the conference. Auburn has won the last two years, although those two games are the only times Auburn has won back-to-back games against LSU since 2000. The Bayou Bengals have been otherwise the better team in this rivalry. They have also rebounded nicely with three impressive wins since losing the season opener to Florida State. Meanwhile, Auburn is a little fortunate to be 3-1, as the Tigers are 0-4 ATS, eking out one-possession wins over San Jose State and Missouri with a blowout home loss to Penn State sandwiched in between.

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No. 10 N.C. State vs. No. 5 Clemson

ATS Record: NC State 2-2, Clemson 1-3

O/U Record: NC State 2-2, Clemson 2-2

This game could potentially decide the winner of the ACC Atlantic Division. In fairness, Syracuse and Florida State have both started the ACC season 2-0 (just like Clemson), so there is a lot of season left to play. But talent-wise, these are probably the two best teams. This is also a rivalry game dubbed the Textile Bowl that dates back to 1899. Obviously, Clemson has dominated for much of this century, although the Wolfpack stole a double-overtime win from the Tigers last year. The problem is that N.C. State has to travel to Death Valley this week. The Wolfpack haven't won a road game against Clemson since 2002 with only one of their last four trips to Death Valley being decided by less than two touchdowns. Plus, this year’s Tigers are averaging 458 yards and 43.8 points per game while Dave Doeren is just 7-26 at N.C. State against teams that average at least 450 yards per game.

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Stanford vs. No. 13 Oregon

ATS Record: Stanford 0-3, Oregon 2-2

O/U Record: Stanford 1-2, Oregon 3-1

Stanford has fallen off a bit in recent years, although the Cardinal have still beat Oregon in four of the last six games in this series, including a 31-24 win last season. However, the 2022 version of Stanford is already 0-2 in Pac-12 play, losing both games by double digits and failing to beat the spread in either game. To make matters worse for David Shaw’s team, the Ducks have scored over 40 points in back-to-back games against BYU and Washington State whereas Stanford has scored just 50 total points in losses to USC and Washington.

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