College Football Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks For Week 4
BetQL star ratings and key trends for this week's top college football games
Bryan Zarpentine - Sep 21, 2022, 3:48pm EDT
The college football season rolls along to Week 4, and BetQL is your source for NCAAF best bets, live college football public bets, live NCAAF sharp data, college football line movement and historical betting trends in addition to our NCAAF articles that cover the sport from top to bottom. Scroll down to see all the best bets and key betting trends for this week's top matchups.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best college football bets, plus what the model is projecting for every NFL game! Start your free trial today!
Maryland vs. No. 4 Michigan
ATS Record: Maryland 2-1, Michigan 2-1
O/U Record: Maryland 1-2, Michigan 0-2-1
It’s been all blowouts for Michigan so far, so perhaps their conference opener will be a challenge for the Wolverines. Of course, Michigan has won six straight games against Maryland, each one being decided by at least 21 points. To be fair, the Terrapins secured a win over SMU last week in their biggest test to date. However, Mike Locksley is 0-9 at Maryland when facing a team with a winning percentage of .750 or better.
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No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 21 Wake Forest
ATS Record: Clemson 1-2, Wake Forest 2-1
O/U Record: Clemson 1-2, Wake Forest 2-1
Pole position in the ACC Atlantic is on the line in this game as the reigning Atlantic champs Wake Forest host perennial favorite Clemson. But while the Demon Deacons played in the ACC Championship Game last season, they still didn’t beat the Tigers. Clemson has won 13 in a row against Wake, including six straight in Winston-Salem. Only one of those 13 games was decided by less than two touchdowns, as the Tigers won 48-27 last season and 37-13 in their last visit to Winston-Salem. Also, while Clemson is just 1-2 ATS, the Tigers are outscoring their opponents by 27.3 points per game.
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No. 17 Baylor vs. Iowa State
ATS Record: Baylor 2-1, Iowa State 2-1
O/U Record: Baylor 1-2, Iowa State 1-2
This is Baylor’s first Big 12 game since winning the conference championship last year, although Iowa State was in the Big 12 Championship Game the previous year. Both teams will feel like they have a chance to get back to the conference title game in a wide-open Big 12. Iowa State might have a slight edge with the home team winning the last four games in this series. Also, Baylor’s last three wins over the Cyclones have come by three points or less. Thus far, the Iowa State defense has been outstanding against the run, giving up 24 rushing yards last week against Ohio and just 58 rushing yards the previous week against Iowa. Also, the Cyclones are 14-3 ATS under Matt Campbell when allowing 125 rushing yards or less in back-to-back games.
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No. 20 Florida vs. No. 11 Tennessee
ATS Record: Florida 1-2, Tennessee 3-1
O/U Record: Florida 2-1, Tennessee 2-1
The Volunteers might be double-digit favorites at home, but it’s no secret that they’ve struggled with Florida over the past two decades. The Gators have won five in a row in this series and 16 of the last 17 head-to-head meetings with the Vols. Of course, Florida barely beat USF last week while the Vols are 3-0 ATS, including a road win over Pitt and two blowouts over MAC schools. The Volunteers have looked like the real deal thus far, while Florida has struggled to build on a season-opening win over Utah. But Tennessee has a lot of history to overcome, losing its last two home games to Florida by a total of 38 points after beating the Gators at home in 2016.
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No. 22 Texas vs. Texas Tech
ATS Record: Texas 3-0, Texas Tech 1-2
O/U Record: Texas 1-2, Texas Tech 2-1
Who can forget last year’s 70-35 win by Texas over the Red Raiders? That gave the Longhorns four straight wins and 11 wins in their last 13 games against their rivals from Lubbock. While Texas Tech is home in this game, the Red Raiders haven’t beaten Texas at home since 2008 when Mack Brown was coaching the Longhorns. Now it’s Steve Sarkisian leading Texas, and Sarkisian is 14-4 ATS as a head coach when his team is favored between 3.5 and 10 points. The Longhorns also did a nice job of taking care of business last week in a 41-20 win against a tricky UTSA team, bouncing back nicely after the painfully close loss to Alabama.
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Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
ATS Record: Notre Dame 1-2, North Carolina 1-1-1
O/U Record: Notre Dame 0-3, North Carolina 2-1
This is the third straight year these teams are meeting and the fourth time in the last decade. The Irish have won all four games, including a 31-17 win in Chapel Hill two years ago and a 44-34 victory in South Bend a year ago. Of course, Notre Dame is still trying to find its footing, barely escaping last weekend after Cal nearly converted a Hail Mary attempt. The biggest thing to watch in this game is whether it turns into an offensive slugfest or remains a defensive struggle. Notre Dame is averaging just 18.3 points per game whereas the Tar Heels are averaging 51.3 points per game with their three games averaging a total of 89 points.
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No. 15 Oregon vs. Washington State
ATS Record: Oregon 2-1, Washington State 2-1
O/U Record: Oregon 2-1, Washington State 0-3
Oregon has bounced back nicely after getting trounced by Georgia in the season opener, as the Ducks looked awfully impressive during last week’s win over BYU. They’ve also won three straight head-to-head matchups with Washington State, including a 38-24 win last year. However, the Cougars have won two of the last three times that they’ve hosted Oregon. They’ve also impressed early in the season, already scoring a top-25 win over Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago. Surprisingly, the Cougars are winning with defense, giving up just 12.7 points per game, which is why all three of their games have stayed under the point total.
No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 23 Texas A&M
ATS Record: Arkansas 2-1, Texas A&M 1-2
O/U Record: Arkansas 3-0, Texas A&M 0-3
The Razorbacks knocked off Texas A&M last year to end a nine-game losing streak at the hands of the Aggies. Despite that long winning streak by A&M, this rivalry has been close in recent years with five of the last eight games being decided by a touchdown or less, including three games that went to overtime. Obviously, the Hogs have impressed on the offensive end this season, but they’ve also allowed 27 points per game. The Aggies, meanwhile, are all about defense. So while Arkansas quarterback K.J. Jefferson has completed 70.5% of his passes this year, note that Jimbo Fisher’s teams are 12-5 SU against teams that complete at least 62% of their passes.
Wisconsin vs. No. 3 Ohio State
ATS Record: Wisconsin 2-1, Ohio State 1-2
O/U Record: Wisconsin 1-2, Ohio State 1-2
The Buckeyes passed a test against Notre Dame in their season opener and blew out a potentially tricky Toledo team last week, but they face their biggest challenge to date against Wisconsin this week. The good news is Ohio State has won eight straight meetings with the Badgers. In fact, the Badgers haven’t won in Columbus since 2004. But the Wisconsin offense was clicking in last week’s 66-7 win over New Mexico State after the Badgers suffered a disappointing loss to Washington State the previous week. Paul Chryst is also 21-11 ATS at Wisconsin when the Badgers are on the road.
Kansas State vs. No. 6 Oklahoma
ATS Record: Kansas State 2-1, Oklahoma 2-1
O/U Record: Kansas State 0-3, Oklahoma 0-2-1
Kansas State is one of the few Big 12 teams to consistently give Oklahoma trouble over the years, as the Wildcats have four wins in their last 10 games against the Sooners. That includes two wins in the last three head-to-head meetings with Oklahoma despite the Sooners eking out a 37-31 win last year. Shockingly, Kansas State has won in three of its last five trips to Norman. But that’s all history because the current Kansas State team is just thinking about bouncing back from last week’s disappointing loss to Tulane. The Wildcats still have wins over South Dakota and Missouri on their resume, but the Sooners are 10-2 ATS over the last three years when facing a team with a winning record.
No. 7 USC vs. Oregon State
ATS Record: USC 3-0, Oregon State 3-0
O/U Record: USC 2-1, Oregon State 2-1
The Trojans head to Corvallis this weekend hoping to avenge last season's 45-27 loss to the Beavers. Of course, that loss was before Lincoln Riley arrived in California and got things rolling. The Trojans have averaged 50.7 points per game over their first three games. That includes last week’s 45-17 win over a Fresno State team that Oregon State beat, 35-32, on a late touchdown the previous week. But the Beavers are no joke, going 8-0 SU and 8-0 ATS at home over the last two seasons. They will also feel confident at home against the Trojans after beating them last year.
No. 13 Utah vs. Arizona State
ATS Record: Utah 2-1, Arizona State 1-2
O/U Record: Utah 2-1, Arizona State 0-3
Disaster struck Herm Edwards and Arizona State last week when they lost to Eastern Michigan as 20.5-point home favorites, leading to Edwards' firing. The Sun Devils also failed to beat the spread in a loss to Oklahoma State the previous week, so this may not be the best time to be facing a ranked Utah team and one of the Pac-12 favorites. The Utes have surely bounced back nicely from their loss to Florida in the season opener, covering in a 35-7 win over San Diego State last week. The catch is that Utah is just 4-6 against Arizona State since joining the Pac-12 and 1-3 in Tempe during that span.
Stanford vs. No. 18 Washington
ATS Record: Stanford 0-2, Washington 3-0
O/U Record: Stanford 1-1, Washington 3-0
It might be time to take Washington seriously after a convincing, 39-28 win over Michigan State last week. Michael Penix Jr. appears to be settling in quickly with his new team, throwing for over 300 yards in three straight games while completing 66% of his passes. He’s thrown 10 touchdowns to just one interception and is averaging 10.2 yards per pass. Of course, the Cardinal have had two weeks to prepare for the Huskies. The point total is also in Stanford’s favor, as David Shaw is 22-10 ATS when the point total is between 56.5 and 63 points. This has also been an even series in recent years with Stanford and Washington splitting their last six head-to-head meetings with the road team winning the last two years.
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