These Group of 5 Teams Are The Best Values To Win Their Conference

College football is almost here! One of the first things we want to do in the betting world is look at college football futures odds to see if we can find some value before the season starts.

With that in mind, BetQL has simulated the 2022 college football season 10,000 times, and we have our projections on which Group of Five teams are primed to win their respective conferences. Armed with that information, we can list our projections alongside sportsbooks' lines to find the value for conference winner futures.

Let's take a look at BetQL's projections and the notable teams with the highest differences between our probabilities and DraftKings' odds. There is some great value on the board, so make sure to take advantage and join us for a free trial at BetQL for another profitable college football season!

Best Values To Win Their Conference In Group of Five

Cincinnati Bearcats, AAC; Best odds: +220 at FanDuel

By far and away, we think Cincinnati is the best value you can get right now for a Group of Five team to win their conference. FanDuel is listing them behind Houston right now with +220 odds, which we think is a mistake; DraftKings still has Cincinnati as the favorite to win the AAC at +210.

BetQL gives Cincinnati a 60% chance to win the AAC, while this line of +220 is indicating only a 31% chance. That's a huge difference between our projection and the line at FanDuel, and we definitely want to take advantage. A 29-percentage-point difference is a boatload of value you are getting here.

This will be the final season before Cincinnati joins the Big 12, and they'll try to keep all the momentum going after a historic run that saw the program be the first Group of Five team to make it to the College Football Playoff last season. They did lose a ton of NFL-caliber talent, and they have a target on their backs now, but the schedule for Cincinnati is very manageable. They only have a few games that will challenge them, even with all of the concerns, and Cincinnati is pretty much a lock to win at least eight games. They won't have to face Houston or Memphis until a possible title-game matchup, which gives us an advantage. Just making the title game goes a long way towards cashing this ticket, and the path is pretty clear for the Bearcats.

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North Texas Mean Green, C-USA; Best odds: +2000 at FanDuel

FanDuel is giving us some really generous lines on these conference winner futures. They are listing North Texas at 20/1 odds to win Conference USA, which just doesn't make sense to us at all. DraftKings also disagrees, as they have the Mean Green sitting at +1500 to win the conference.

At +2000, FanDuel is giving North Texas essentially a 5% chance to win the conference. We give the Mean Green a fighting chance to win it at a crisp 21%. That's a difference of 16 points between our projection and the best line you can get at a sportsbook right now. That is some serious value that we think you should consider taking.

You have to give some credit to this team after starting last season with a terrible 1-6 record. They had to run the table to make a bowl game, and that's exactly what Seth Littrell's team did. North Texas ripped off five straight wins to earn a bowl appearance to end the year. This team has a way of surprising everyone when expectations are low, but this year there should be reasons to get excited with a loaded offense that should overcome some issues on defense. They have a very tough schedule this year, but they are a team that has the talent to pull off a special season.

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Worst Value To Win Their Conference In Group of Five

Houston Cougars, AAC; Best odds: +235 at DraftKings

Well, you might have expected this team to have the worst value compared to our projections after you saw Cincinnati with the best value. As I mentioned above, FanDuel actually has the Cougars as favorites to win the AAC. Even at their best odds at DraftKings of +235, we see this as a terrible bet. I'm not sure why this team is getting steamed like they are, but it gives us more value with Cincinnati.

Houston feels like one of those teams that absolutely everyone loves at the beginning of the season, only for them to let their backers down (see Indiana and Iowa State before the 2021 season). The Cougars have always had issues winning big games and avoiding disappointing losses, and one great year doesn't make the program. I'll admit, Houston has the talent. There’s a great team there helped by a whole lot of new transfers, but this isn't like Cincinnati's team last year.

We give Houston just a 5% chance to win the AAC, which is far cry from the +235 line, which is saying Houston has a 30% chance to win the conference. That is a humongous 25-point difference between our projection and the actual line.

In conclusion, stay away from this one. Far away.

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