UCLA Win Total Takes A Tumble
It's clear the books aren't very high on the Bruins this season
BetMGM Data
Line movement is one of the most important factors to take into account for many sharp cappers, and BetMGM gives us their updated data each week so we can see where the biggest shifts are in the market. I like to share this information when I see something noticeable from it, and taking a look at the win total line movement, something stood out immediately. UCLA has gone from 6.5 to 4.5 projected wins on the odds board, which is a major shift.
It is no secret that many teams that formerly embodied the PAC-12 conference are joining the Big-10 this season, and one of those teams is UCLA. This is a program that should be good at college football, but never actually is, despite its history and excellent location. What prospect doesn't want to play and go to school in sunny and glamorous southern California? Apparently, a lot of them, as the Bruins always seem to come up short to not only USC but many other programs as well in their quest for top prospects.
They lost their head coach, Chip Kelly, who left to take an offensive coordinator position at now-rival Ohio State. They also lost their QB Dante Moore, who left to be a BACK-UP to Dillon Gabriel in Oregon. When you have two of your most important pieces leave to take demotions at other programs, that is a very telling sign.
Best Bet
UCLA Over 4.5 Wins
I actually think this has moved enough to where I would play the over now. They still have enough talent to be a borderline bowl game team, and their schedule isn't the worst it could be. They miss Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin on their schedule, and they also don't have to travel across the country as much as you might think.
After October 5, they don't have to leave the Pacific Time Zone. They will have to win some games, like against Hawaii and Indiana, if they want to get to a bowl game. They have a three-game losing streak guaranteed in the season when they have to face LSU, Oregon, and Penn State all in a row. However, there are enough 50/50 games here to where I think they can manage five wins.