The Public Loves Michigan State's Win Total

BetMGM Data

Every good sports bettor knows that getting the betting splits and data on a market is a key part of handicapping a market, and when we get that data from BetMGM, I like to share it with you so you can make the most informed wager possible. This morning, I was taking a look at the latest win total data for college football, and there were a couple of things that stood out to me. The first is that the public can't stop betting on Colorado overs, but I wrote about their love the other day, so that was common knowledge at this point. However, you might be surprised to know that Michigan State's over 5 wins is the second-most wagered-on bet.

Jonathan Smith takes over as head coach after getting the Oregon State program back on the rails, and he likely will have some work to do with the Spartans as well. The good news is that they have a much more prominent program than the Beavers, and they can bounce back pretty quickly. This schedule is pretty manageable, once you get out of the first couple of months. They have to face Maryland, Boston College, Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa, and Michigan over that span. I'd say if they can manage two wins there, they can get over this win total. They play lowly Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, and Rutgers in November, all of which are winnable games. They also have likely easy wins over Florida Atlantic and Prairie View A&M in the first three weeks for tune-up games.

Best Bet

Michigan State Over 5 Wins

Five seems like a really low win total for this schedule, but if they slip a little, it will get very sweaty. I'd have probably set this around 6.5, as I have them as a 6 or a 7-win team this year. I won't be shocked if they get off to a poor start with that early schedule, but we are going to need them to start winning come November.

They will need to go at least 3-1 in November for a shot at this win total. I think they are much better than Indiana and Purdue, and they get them at home. Playing at Illinois is close, and Rutgers I think will be a better team this year. I think they can go 1-1 there though. They only have three games that I would say are guaranteed losses, being Ohio State, Oregon, and Michigan.